Ana Carolina Carnaval

Stability Predicts Genetic Diversity in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest Hotspot

Biodiversity hotspots, representing regions with high species endemism and conservation threat, have been mapped globally. Yet, biodiversity distribution data from within hotspots are too sparse for effective conservation in the face of rapid environmental change. Using frogs as indicators, ecological niche models under paleoclimates, and simultaneous Bayesian analyses of multispecies molecular data, we compare alternative hypotheses of assemblage-scale response to late Quaternary climate change. This reveals a hotspot within the Brazilian Atlantic forest hotspot. We show that the southern Atlantic forest was climatically unstable relative to the central region, which served as a large climatic refugium for neotropical species in the late Pleistocene. This sets new priorities for conservation in Brazil and establishes a validated approach to biodiversity prediction in other understudied, species-rich regions.

Latitude, elevational climatic zonation and speciation in New World vertebrates

Many biodiversity hotspots are located in montane regions, especially in the tropics. A possible explanation for this pattern is that the narrow thermal tolerances of tropical species and greater climatic stratification of tropical mountains create more opportunities for climate-associated parapatric or allopatric speciation in the tropics relative to the temperate zone. However, it is unclear whether a general relationship exists among latitude, climatic zonation and the ecology of speciation. Recent taxon-specific studies obtained different results regarding the role of climate in speciation in tropical versus temperate areas. Here, we quantify overlap in the climatic distributions of 93 pairs of sister species of mammals, birds, amphibians and reptiles restricted to either the New World tropics or to the Northern temperate zone. We show that elevational ranges of tropical- and temperate-zone species do not differ from one another, yet the temperature range experienced by species in the temperate zone is greater than for those in the tropics. Moreover, tropical sister species tend to exhibit greater similarity in their climatic distributions than temperate sister species. This pattern suggests that evolutionary conservatism in the thermal niches of tropical taxa, coupled with the greater thermal zonation of tropical mountains, may result in increased opportunities for allopatric isolation, speciation and the accumulation of species in tropical montane regions. Our study exemplifies the power of combining phylogenetic and spatial datasets of global climatic variation to explore evolutionary (rather than purely ecological) explanations for the high biodiversity of tropical montane regions.

Prediction of phylogeographic endemism in an environmentally complex biome

Phylogeographic endemism, the degree to which the history of recently evolved lineages is spatially restricted, reflects fundamental evolutionary processes such as cryptic divergence, adaptation and biological responses to environmental heterogeneity. Attempts to explain the extraordinary diversity of the tropics, which often includes deep phylogeographic structure, frequently invoke interactions of climate variability across space, time and topography. To evaluate historical versus contemporary drivers of phylogeographic endemism in a tropical system, we analyse the effects of current and past climatic variation on the genetic diversity of 25 vertebrates in the Brazilian Atlantic rainforest. We identify two divergent bioclimatic domains within the forest and high turnover around the Rio Doce. Independent modelling of these domains demonstrates that endemism patterns are subject to different climatic drivers. Past climate dynamics, specifically areas of relative stability, predict phylogeographic endemism in the north. Conversely, contemporary climatic heterogeneity better explains endemism in the south. These results accord with recent speleothem and fossil pollen studies, suggesting that climatic variability through the last 250 kyr impacted the northern and the southern forests differently. Incorporating sub-regional differences in climate dynamics will enhance our ability to understand those processes shaping high phylogeographic and species endemism, in the Neotropics and beyond.

Variable responses of skinks to a common history of rainforest fluctuation: concordance between phylogeography and palaeo‐distribution models

There is a growing appreciation of impacts of late‐Quaternary climate fluctuations on spatial patterns of species and genetic diversity. A major challenge is to understand how and why species respond individualistically to a common history of climate‐induced habitat fluctuation. Here, we combine modelling of palaeo‐distributions and mitochondrial‐DNA phylogeographies to compare spatial patterns of population persistence and isolation across three species of rainforest skinks (Saproscincus spp.) with varying climatic preferences. Using Akaike Information Criterion model‐averaged projections, all three species are predicted to have maintained one or more small populations in the northern Wet Tropics, multiple or larger populations in the central region, and few if any in the south. For the high‐elevation species, Saproscincus czechurai, the warm–wet climate of the mid Holocene was most restrictive, whereas for the generalist S. basiliscus and lower‐elevation S. tetradactyla, the cool–dry last glacial maximum was most restrictive. As expected, S. czechurai was the most genetically structured species, although relative to modelled distributions, S. basiliscus had surprisingly deep phylogeographical structure among southern rainforest isolates, implying long‐term isolation and persistence. For both S. basiliscus and S. tetradactyla, there was high genetic diversity and complex phylogeographical patterns in the central Wet Tropics, reflecting persistence of large, structured populations. A previously identified vicariant barrier separating northern and central regions is supported, and results from these species also emphasize a historical persistence of populations south of another biogeographical break, the Tully Gorge. Overall, the results support the contention that in a topographically heterogeneous landscape, species with broader climatic niches may maintain higher and more structured genetic diversity due to persistence through varying climates.

AMPHIBIAN DNA SHOWS MARKED GENETIC STRUCTURE AND TRACKS PLEISTOCENE CLIMATE CHANGE IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL

Abstract The glacial refugia paradigm has been broadly applied to patterns of species dynamics and population diversification. However, recent geological studies have demonstrated striking Pleistocene climate changes in currently semiarid northeastern Brazil at time intervals much more frequent than the climatic oscillations associated with glacial and interglacial periods. These geomorphic data documented recurrent pulses of wet regimes in the past 210,000 years that correlate with climate anomalies affecting multiple continents. While analyzing DNA sequences of two mitochondrial genes (cytochrome b and NADH-dehydrogenase subunit 2) and one nuclear marker (cellular-myelocytomatosis proto-oncogene) in the forest-associated frogs Proceratophrys boiei and Ischnocnema gr. ramagii, we found evidence of biological responses consistent with these pluvial maxima events. Sampled areas included old, naturally isolated forest enclaves within the semiarid Caatinga, as well as recent man-made fragments of humid coastal Atlantic forest. Results show that mtDNA lineages in enclave populations are monophyletic or nearly so, whereas nonenclave populations are polyphyletic and more diverse. The studied taxa show evidence of demographic expansions at times that match phases of pluvial maxima inferred from geological data. Divergence times between several populations fall within comparatively drier intervals suggested by geomorphology. Mitochondrial and nuclear data show local populations to be genetically structured, with some high levels of differentiation that suggest the need of further taxonomic work.

Demographic processes in the montane Atlantic rainforest: Molecular and cytogenetic evidence from the endemic frog Proceratophrys boiei

Historical climatic refugia predict genetic diversity in lowland endemics of the Brazilian Atlantic rainforest. Yet, available data reveal distinct biological responses to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) conditions across species of different altitudinal ranges. We show that species occupying Brazils montane forests were significantly less affected by LGM conditions relative to lowland specialists, but that pre-Pleistocene tectonics greatly influenced their geographic variation. Our conclusions are based on palaeoclimatic distribution models, molecular sequences of the cytochrome b, 16S, and RAG-1 genes, and karyotype data for the endemic frog Proceratophrys boiei. DNA and chromosomal data identify in P. boiei at least two broadly divergent phylogroups, which have not been distinguished morphologically. Cytogenetic results also indicate an area of hybridization in southern São Paulo. The location of the phylogeographic break broadly matches the location of a NW-SE fault, which underwent reactivation in the Neogene and led to remarkable landscape changes in southeastern Brazil. Our results point to different mechanisms underpinning diversity patterns in lowland versus montane tropical taxa, and help us to understand the processes responsible for the large number of narrow endemics currently observed in montane areas of the southern Atlantic forest hotspot.

Molecular phylogeny and morphometric analyses reveal deep divergence between Amazonia and Atlantic Forest species of Dendrophryniscus.

Dendrophryniscus is an early diverging clade of bufonids represented by few small-bodied species distributed in Amazonia and the Atlantic Forest. We used mitochondrial (414 bp of 12S, 575 bp of 16S genes) and nuclear DNA (785 bp of RAG-1) to investigate phylogenetic relationships and the timing of diversification within the genus. These molecular data were gathered from 23 specimens from 19 populations, including eight out of the 10 nominal species of the genus as well as Rhinella boulengeri. Analyses also included sequences of representatives of 18 other bufonid genera that were publically available. We also examined morphological characters to analyze differences within Dendrophryniscus. We found deep genetic divergence between an Amazonian and an Atlantic Forest clade, dating back to Eocene. Morphological data corroborate this distinction. We thus propose to assign the Amazonian species to a new genus, Amazonella. The species currently named R. boulengeri, which has been previously assigned to the genus Rhamphophryne, is shown to be closely related to Dendrophryniscus species. Our findings illustrate cryptic trends in bufonid morphological evolution, and point to a deep history of persistence and diversification within the Amazonian and Atlantic rainforests. We discuss our results in light of available paleoecological data and the biogeographic patterns observed in other similarly distributed groups.

Inferring responses to climate dynamics from historical demography in neotropical forest lizards

We apply a comparative framework to test for concerted demographic changes in response to climate shifts in the neotropical lowland forests, learning from the past to inform projections of the future. Using reduced genomic (SNP) data from three lizard species codistributed in Amazonia and the Atlantic Forest (Anolis punctatus, Anolis ortonii, and Polychrus marmoratus), we first reconstruct former population history and test for assemblage-level responses to cycles of moisture transport recently implicated in changes of forest distribution during the Late Quaternary. We find support for population shifts within the time frame of inferred precipitation fluctuations (the last 250,000 y) but detect idiosyncratic responses across species and uniformity of within-species responses across forest regions. These results are incongruent with expectations of concerted population expansion in response to increased rainfall and fail to detect out-of-phase demographic syndromes (expansions vs. contractions) across forest regions. Using reduced genomic data to infer species-specific demographical parameters, we then model the plausible spatial distribution of genetic diversity in the Atlantic Forest into future climates (2080) under a medium carbon emission trajectory. The models forecast very distinct trajectories for the lizard species, reflecting unique estimated population densities and dispersal abilities. Ecological and demographic constraints seemingly lead to distinct and asynchronous responses to climatic regimes in the tropics, even among similarly distributed taxa. Incorporating such constraints is key to improve modeling of the distribution of biodiversity in the past and future.

A mid-Pleistocene rainforest corridor enabled synchronous invasions of the Atlantic Forest by Amazonian anole lizards

Shifts in the geographic distribution of habitats over time can promote dispersal and vicariance, thereby influencing large‐scale biogeographic patterns and ecological processes. An example is that of transient corridors of suitable habitat across disjunct but ecologically similar regions, which have been associated with climate change over time. Such connections likely played a role in the assembly of tropical communities, especially within the highly diverse Amazonian and Atlantic rainforests of South America. Although these forests are presently separated by open and dry ecosystems, paleoclimatic and phylogenetic evidence suggest that they have been transiently connected in the past. However, little is known about the timing, magnitude and the distribution of former forest connections. We employ sequence data at multiple loci from three codistributed arboreal lizards (Anolis punctatus, Anolis ortonii and Polychrus marmoratus) to infer the phylogenetic relationships among Amazonian and Atlantic Forest populations and to test alternative historical demographic scenarios of colonization and vicariance using coalescent simulations and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). Data from the better‐sampled Anolis species support colonization of the Atlantic Forest from eastern Amazonia. Hierarchical ABC indicates that the three species colonized the Atlantic Forest synchronously during the mid‐Pleistocene. We find support of population bottlenecks associated with founder events in the two Anolis, but not in P. marmoratus, consistently with their distinct ecological tolerances. Our findings support that climatic fluctuations provided key opportunities for dispersal and forest colonization in eastern South America through the cessation of environmental barriers. Evidence of species‐specific histories strengthens assertions that biological attributes play a role in responses to shared environmental change.

Predicting the genetic consequences of future climate change: The power of coupling spatial demography, the coalescent, and historical landscape changes

PREMISE OF THE STUDY Climate change is a widely accepted threat to biodiversity. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to forecast whether and how species distributions may track these changes. Yet, SDMs generally fail to account for genetic and demographic processes, limiting population-level inferences. We still do not understand how predicted environmental shifts will impact the spatial distribution of genetic diversity within taxa. METHODS We propose a novel method that predicts spatially explicit genetic and demographic landscapes of populations under future climatic conditions. We use carefully parameterized SDMs as estimates of the spatial distribution of suitable habitats and landscape dispersal permeability under present-day, past, and future conditions. We use empirical genetic data and approximate Bayesian computation to estimate unknown demographic parameters. Finally, we employ these parameters to simulate realistic and complex models of responses to future environmental shifts. We contrast parameterized models under current and future landscapes to quantify the expected magnitude of change. KEY RESULTS We implement this framework on neutral genetic data available from Penstemon deustus. Our results predict that future climate change will result in geographically widespread declines in genetic diversity in this species. The extent of reduction will heavily depend on the continuity of population networks and deme sizes. CONCLUSIONS To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide spatially explicit predictions of within-species genetic diversity using climatic, demographic, and genetic data. Our approach accounts for climatic, geographic, and biological complexity. This framework is promising for understanding evolutionary consequences of climate change, and guiding conservation planning.