Ana D. Davidson

Multiple ecological pathways to extinction in mammals

As human population and resource demands continue to grow, biodiversity conservation has never been more critical. About one-quarter of all mammals are in danger of extinction, and more than half of all mammal populations are in decline. A major priority for conservation science is to understand the ecological traits that predict extinction risk and the interactions among those predictors that make certain species more vulnerable than others. Here, using a new database of nearly 4,500 mammal species, we use decision-tree models to quantify the multiple interacting factors associated with extinction risk. We show that the correlates of extinction risk vary widely across mammals and that there are unique pathways to extinction for species with different lifestyles and combinations of traits. We find that risk is relative and that all kinds of mammals, across all body sizes, can be at risk depending on their specific ecologies. Our results increase the understanding of extinction processes, generate simple rules of thumb that identify species at greatest risk, and highlight the potential of decision-tree analyses to inform conservation efforts.

Energetic Limits to Economic Growth

The human population and economy have grown exponentially and now have impacts on climate, ecosystem processes, and biodiversity far exceeding those of any other species. Like all organisms, humans are subject to natural laws and are limited by energy and other resources. In this article, we use a macro ecological approach to integrate perspectives of physics, ecology, and economics with an analysis of extensive global data to show how energy imposes fundamental constraints on economic growth and development. We demonstrate a positive scaling relationship between per capita energy use and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) both across nations and within nations over time. Other indicators of socioeconomic status and ecological impactare correlated with energy use and GDP. We estimate global energy consumption for alternative future scenarios of population growth and standards of living. Large amounts of energy will be required to fuel economic growth, increase standards of living, and lift developing nations out of poverty.

Drivers and hotspots of extinction risk in marine mammals

The worlds oceans are undergoing profound changes as a result of human activities. However, the consequences of escalating human impacts on marine mammal biodiversity remain poorly understood. The International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) identifies 25% of marine mammals as at risk of extinction, but the conservation status of nearly 40% of marine mammals remains unknown due to insufficient data. Predictive models of extinction risk are crucial to informing present and future conservation needs, yet such models have not been developed for marine mammals. In this paper, we: (i) used powerful machine-learning and spatial-modeling approaches to understand the intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of marine mammal extinction risk; (ii) used this information to predict risk across all marine mammals, including IUCN “Data Deficient” species; and (iii) conducted a spatially explicit assessment of these results to understand how risk is distributed across the worlds oceans. Rate of offspring production was the most important predictor of risk. Additional predictors included taxonomic group, small geographic range area, and small social group size. Although the interaction of both intrinsic and extrinsic variables was important in predicting risk, overall, intrinsic traits were more important than extrinsic variables. In addition to the 32 species already on the IUCN Red List, our model identified 15 more species, suggesting that 37% of all marine mammals are at risk of extinction. Most at-risk species occur in coastal areas and in productive regions of the high seas. We identify 13 global hotspots of risk and show how they overlap with human impacts and Marine Protected Areas.

Ecological roles and conservation challenges of social, burrowing, herbivorous mammals in the world's grasslands

The worlds grassland ecosystems are shaped in part by a key functional group of social, burrowing, herbivorous mammals. Through herbivory and ecosystem engineering they create distinctive and important habitats for many other species, thereby increasing biodiversity and habitat heterogeneity across the landscape. They also help maintain grassland presence and serve as important prey for many predators. However, these burrowing mammals are facing myriad threats, which have caused marked decreases in populations of the best-studied species, as well as cascading declines in dependent species and in grassland habitat. To prevent or mitigate such losses, we recommend that grasslands be managed to promote the compatibility of burrowing mammals with human activities. Here, we highlight the important and often overlooked ecological roles of these burrowing mammals, the threats they face, and future management efforts needed to enhance their populations and grassland ecosystems.

The Macroecology of Sustainability

Global consumption rates of vital resources suggest that we have surpassed the capacity of the Earth to sustain current levels, much less future trajectories of growth in human population and economy.

Rapid Decline of a Grassland System and Its Ecological and Conservation Implications

One of the most important conservation issues in ecology is the imperiled state of grassland ecosystems worldwide due to land conversion, desertification, and the loss of native populations and species. The Janos region of northwestern Mexico maintains one of the largest remaining black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) colony complexes in North America and supports a high diversity of threatened and endangered species. Yet, cattle grazing, agriculture, and drought have greatly impacted the region. We evaluated the impact of human activities on the Janos grasslands, comparing changes in the vertebrate community over the last two decades. Our results reveal profound, rapid changes in the Janos grassland community, demonstrating large declines in vertebrate abundance across all taxonomic groups. We also found that the 55,000 ha prairie dog colony complex has declined by 73% since 1988. The prairie dog complex has become increasingly fragmented, and their densities have shown a precipitous decline over the years, from an average density of 25 per ha in 1988 to 2 per ha in 2004. We demonstrated that prairie dogs strongly suppressed woody plant encroachment as well as created open grassland habitat by clearing woody vegetation, and found rapid invasion of shrubland once the prairie dogs disappeared from the grasslands. Comparison of grasslands and shrublands showed markedly different species compositions, with species richness being greatest when both habitats were considered together. Our data demonstrate the rapid decline of a grassland ecosystem, and documents the dramatic loss in biodiversity over a very short time period concomitant with anthropogenic grassland degradation and the decline of a keystone species.

Imputation of missing data in life‐history trait datasets: which approach performs the best?

1. Despite efforts in data collection, missing values are commonplace in life-history trait databases. Because these values typically are not missing randomly, the common practice of removingmissing data not only reduces sample size, but also introduces bias that can lead to incorrect conclusions. Imputingmissing values is a potential solution to this problem. Here, we evaluate the performance of four approaches for estimating missing values in trait databases (K-nearest neighbour (kNN), multivariate imputation by chained equations (mice), missForest and Phylopars), and testwhether imputed datasets retain underlying allometric relationships among traits. 2. Starting with a nearly complete trait dataset on the mammalian order Carnivora (using four traits), we artificially removed values so that the percent ofmissing values ranged from 10% to 80%. Using the original values as a reference, we assessed imputation performance using normalized root mean squared error.We also evaluated whether including phylogenetic information improved imputation performance in kNN, mice, and missForest (it is a required input in Phylopars). Finally, we evaluated the extent to which the allometric relationship between two traits (body mass and longevity) was conserved for imputed datasets by looking at the difference (bias) between the slope of the original and the imputed datasets or datasets with missing values removed. 3. Three of the tested approaches (mice, missForest and Phylopars), resulted in qualitatively equivalent imputation performance, and all had significantly lower errors than kNN. Adding phylogenetic information into the imputation algorithms improved estimation of missing values for all tested traits. The allometric relationship between body mass and longevity was conserved when up to 60% of data were missing, either with or without phylogenetic information, depending on the approach. This relationship was less biased in imputed datasets compared to datasets withmissing values removed, especially whenmore than 30%of values weremissing. 4. Imputations provide valuable alternatives to removing missing observations in trait databases as they produce low errors and retain relationships among traits. Although we must continue to prioritize data collection on species traits, imputations can provide a valuable solution for conducting macroecological and evolutionary studies using life-history trait databases.

Rapid Response of a Grassland Ecosystem to an Experimental Manipulation of a Keystone Rodent and Domestic Livestock

Megaherbivores and small burrowing mammals commonly coexist and play important functional roles in grassland ecosystems worldwide. The interactive effects of these two functional groups of herbivores in shaping the structure and function of grassland ecosystems are poorly understood. In North Americas central grasslands, domestic cattle (Bos taurus) have supplanted bison (Bison bison), and now coexist with prairie dogs (Cynomys spp.), a keystone burrowing rodent. Understanding the ecological relationships between cattle and prairie dogs and their independent and interactive effects is essential to understanding the ecology and important conservation issues affecting North American grassland ecosystems. To address these needs, we established a long-term manipulative experiment that separates the independent and interactive effects of prairie dogs and cattle using a 2 x 2 factorial design. Our study is located in the Janos-Casas Grandes region of northwestern Chihuahua, Mexico, which supports one of the largest remaining complexes of black-tailed prairie dogs (C. ludovicianus). Two years of posttreatment data show nearly twofold increases in prairie dog abundance on plots grazed by cattle compared to plots without cattle. This positive effect of cattle on prairie dogs resulted in synergistic impacts when they occurred together. Vegetation height was significantly lower on the plots where both species co-occurred compared to where either or both species was absent. The treatments also significantly affected abundance and composition of other grassland animal species, including grasshoppers and banner-tailed kangaroo rats (Dipodomys spectabilis). Our results demonstrate that two different functional groups of herbivorous mammals, burrowing mammals and domestic cattle, have distinctive and synergistic impacts in shaping the structure and function of grassland ecosystems.

Universal scaling of production rates across mammalian lineages.

Over many millions of years of independent evolution, placental, marsupial and monotreme mammals have diverged conspicuously in physiology, life history and reproductive ecology. The differences in life histories are particularly striking. Compared with placentals, marsupials exhibit shorter pregnancy, smaller size of offspring at birth and longer period of lactation in the pouch. Monotremes also exhibit short pregnancy, but incubate embryos in eggs, followed by a long period of post-hatching lactation. Using a large sample of mammalian species, we show that, remarkably, despite their very different life histories, the scaling of production rates is statistically indistinguishable across mammalian lineages. Apparently all mammals are subject to the same fundamental metabolic constraints on productivity, because they share similar body designs, vascular systems and costs of producing new tissue.

The Malthusian-Darwinian dynamic and the trajectory of civilization.

Two interacting forces influence all populations: the Malthusian dynamic of exponential growth until resource limits are reached, and the Darwinian dynamic of innovation and adaptation to circumvent these limits through biological and/or cultural evolution. The specific manifestations of these forces in modern human society provide an important context for determining how humans can establish a sustainable relationship with the finite Earth.