Ana María Ibáñez

Civil Conflict and Forced Migration: The Micro Determinants and Welfare Losses of Displacement in Colombia

Summary Forced displacement in Colombia has soared due to the escalating internal conflict. The purpose of this paper is twofold: first, to identify adequate instruments for addressing the problem of displacement by estimating its determinants and comparing these findings with the standard migration literature; second, to estimate its welfare losses, thus providing evidence as to whether the response to this problem has been proportional to its size. We find that the welfare losses caused by displacement are 37% of the net present value of rural lifetime aggregate consumption. Our empirical findings also show that a violent environment modifies the net benefits of migration.

The Social Impact of Social Funds in Jamaica: A 'Participatory Econometric' Analysis of Targeting, Collective Action, and Participation in Community-Driven Development

Qualitative data from a case study of the Jamaica social investment fund reveal that the social fund process is elite-driven and decision-making tends to be dominated by a small group of motivated individuals. However, there is broad-based satisfaction with the outcome. Quantitative data from 500 households mirror these findings by showing that, ex-ante, the social fund does not address the expressed needs of the majority of individuals in the majority of communities. By the completion of the project, however, 80 per cent of the community expresses satisfaction with the outcome. An analysis of the determinants of participation reveals that better educated and better networked individuals dominate the process. Propensity-score analysis demonstrates that JSIF has had a causal impact on improvements in trust and the capacity for collective action, but these gains are greater for elites.

Do Conflicts Create Poverty Traps? Asset Losses and Recovery for Displaced Households in Colombia

Internal conflicts entail large asset losses for certain segments in the civilian population. Asset losses may compromise the future welfare of households, thus leaving a legacy of structural poverty that is difficult to overcome. The purpose of this article is to analyze how asset losses occur during internal conflicts and the process of asset accumulation following the initial shock. To do this, we concentrate on a particularly vulnerable group of victims of war—the displaced population in Colombia. In achieving our objective, we adopt quantitative and qualitative approaches by: (i) providing a detailed description of losses stemming from forced displacement; (ii) analyzing qualitative evidence so as to understand the asset recovery processes for the displaced population; and (iii) estimating OLS, Instrumental Variable and quartile regressions in order to identify the determinants of asset losses stemming from forced displacement, and asset accumulation following the initial shock. The results indicate that recuperating asset losses or accumulating new assets is a rare event; only 25 percent of households are able to recover their original asset base, while asset ownership still seems insufficient for overcoming poverty. In addition, displaced households do not catch up even as settlement at destination sites consolidates. Therefore, unless a positive intervention is implemented, displaced households become locked in a low income trajectory, and are unlikely to leap forward to a high return asset level.

The Economics of Transmilenio, a Mass Transit System for Bogotá

By the end of the 1990s, inefficiency, excess supply and low service quality characterized the mass transit system of Bogota. The average travel time to work was one hour and ten minutes, obsolete buses provided public transport, traffic generated 70 percent of air pollution and there were frequent traffic accidents. To address all of these issues, the municipal and national governments designed and put in place a new mass transit system named TransMilenio (TM), which came into operation in January 2001. The purpose of this paper is to analyze Bogota´s mass transit system before and after TM, study the political economy of its adoption process and conduct a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of the first phase of the system. The new transit system is a hybrid model that combines public planning of the network structure, route tendering conditions, regulation and supervision, as well as private operation of the separated functions of revenue collection and transport service. The adoption of this new model needed to resolve delicate political economy issues that characterized private transport systems in many developing countries. The new organization had a sizeable impact on TM users´ by improving traveling conditions significantly. In addition, congestion, pollution and traffic accidents plummeted in TM corridors. However, the type of transition adopted for the remaining transport corridors not covered by TM caused unforeseen negative spillovers, as a consequence of slow scrapping rates and bus and routes relocation. Consequently, although the CBA for the first phase of the corridors covered by TM is positive, once these additional measures are taken into consideration, the net effect is negative due primarily to increases in travel time for passengers using the traditional transport system. In order to minimize the negative spillovers during the full implementation of TM, expected to last until 2015, integration of the traditional and new systems should be carried on, and strict regulation of the traditional public transport system should be crafted.

The Journey to Safety: Conflict-Driven Migration Flows in Colombia

While there is a growing econometrics literature on the modeling of conflict and the interactions with trade, there has been relatively little evidence modeling the interregional migration behavior of individuals internally displaced by conflicts. The current article models the flows of households forced to leave their residence because of violent conflicts in Colombia. Results shed light on the main determinants of what we call journey to safety. Violence appears to be one of the most relevant pushing effects together with the absence of institutions and the dissatisfaction with the provision of basic needs. Furthermore, for regions with extreme violence levels, individuals appear to be willing to relocate to more distant locations. On the destination side, most populated regions are more attractive as well as areas with a sufficient level of fulfillment of basic needs.

The Impact of Intra-State Conflict on Economic Welfare and Consumption Smoothing: Empirical Evidence for the Displaced Population in Colombia

Intra-state conflicts and forced displacement impose a heavy burden upon the civil population, and produce severe welfare losses. Using a household level data administered to 2.322 Colombian displaced households, we estimate welfare losses for displaced households, as well as the determinants of labor income and aggregate consumption in reception sites. We also asses whether households are able to smooth consumption, and analyze the strategies they are compelled to adopt. Our results indicate that forced displacement entails a significant asset loss, limits the ability of household to generate income, disrupts risk-sharing mechanisms, and obliges households to rely on costly strategies in order to smooth consumption. Thus, the short and long-term consequences of forced displacement are large, and the need to design and implement specific policies for victims of internal conflict is evident. These policies, in particular, should provide mechanisms to prevent substantial welfare losses and to create conditions for sustainable income generation processes.

Forced Migration, Female Labour Force Participation, and Intra-Household Bargaining: Does Conflict Empower Women?

Civilian displacement is a common phenomenon in developing countries confronted with internal conflict. While displacement directly affects forced migrants, it also contributes to deteriorating labour conditions of vulnerable groups in receiving communities. For the displaced population, the income losses are substantial, and as they migrate to cities, they usually end up joining the informal labour force. Qualitative evidence reveals that displaced women are better suited to compete in urban labour markets, as their labour experience is more relevant with respect to certain urban low-skilled occupations. Our study uses this exogenous change in female labour force participation to test how it affects female bargaining power within the household. Our results show that female displaced women work longer hours, earn similar wages and contribute in larger proportions to household earnings relative to rural women who remain in rural areas. However, as measured by several indicators, their greater contribution to households’ earnings does not strengthen their bargaining power. Most notably, domestic violence have increased among displaced women. The anger and frustration of displaced women also increases the level of violence directed at children. Because the children of displaced families have been the direct victims of conflict and domestic violence, the intragenerational transmission of violence is highly likely.

Adjusting the labor supply to mitigate violent shocks : evidence from rural Colombia

Abstract We study the use of labour markets to mitigate the impact of violent shocks on households in rural areas. Because the incidence of violent shocks is not exogenous, the analysis uses instrumental variables. As a response to violent shocks men decrease the time they devote to off-farm agricultural activities and increase off-farm non-agricultural activities, while women decrease their leisure time and increase the time they devote to household chores and childcare. Labour markets appear unable to fully absorb the additional labour supply. Policies in conflict-affected countries should aim to prevent labour markets from collapsing.

Labour market effects of migration-related supply shocks: evidence from internal refugees in Colombia

We exploit the exogenous nature of forced migrations in Colombia to understand how migrations from directly affected areas influence labour markets not directly touched by conflict. Using an instrumental variables strategy, we estimate the causal impact of these migrations on the urban labour market. Our estimates suggest that these migrations substantially reduce wages for urban unskilled workers who compete for jobs with forced migrants. Given the widespread problem of civilian displacement during civil wars in the developing world, and the robust relationship between poverty and civil wars, our results have broad implications for economic development.

The Desire to Return during Civil War: Evidence for Internally Displaced Populations in Colombia

Abstract Armed conflict in Colombia has forcibly displaced more than 3.6 million people. In a post-conflict scenario, the socioeconomic stabilization of displaced households is crucial, as families must decide whether to stay in the reception place, relocate to a new municipality or return to their site of origin. In this paper we identify the determinants of the desire to return of internally displaced households in Colombia. We find that i) land tenure in the place of origin provides an incentive to return; ii) vulnerable households, in particular female-headed households and those from ethnic minorities seek to establish themselves at the reception site and exhibit a lower desire to return; iii) those who displaced as a consequence of a direct attack are less willing to return; iv) economic opportunities in the place of origin encourage return while economic opportunities at the reception site decrease the willingness to return; and v) social networks, as exemplified by membership in peasant organizations and collective land ownership, increase the desire to return. To be successful, the design of stabilization programs for the displaced population must consider these particularities of the households that are willing to return and those who prefer to stay in the reception site.