Ana Paula Ribeiro

Assessing welfare impacts of some debt-consolidation episodes in the European Union

This paper aims at characterizing debt consolidation processes put forward by some European countries in order to assess welfare and, in particular, the inequality effects involved. For that we built a general equilibrium heterogeneous-agent model capable of exploring the relationship between fiscal policy variables and the endogenous crosssection distribution of income and wealth. Results show that, with the exception of the Belgian case, all consolidation strategies entail positive welfare gains. The transition costs affect all episodes and are determinant in sorting among the welfareenhancing strategies. Our results confirm the superiority of the adjustments based on unproductive expenditures over those based on tax increases or social transfer reductions. Finally, all strategies involve lower welfare inequality costs.

Export-Led Growth in the EU: Where and What to Export?

ABSTRACT In the aftermath of the Great Recession, exports emerge as a meaningful source of growth. In this context, using a panel of 26 European Union members, we assess if and how the product and the destination structures of exports shape the growth dynamics for European countries. We find that growth is fostered through export specialization in high-value-added products, such as manufacturing and high-technology, and by export diversification across partners. However, enlarging the portfolio of partners, mainly to less developed and more distant countries, has negative impacts on growth. Unambiguously, relative concentration of exports should be directed towards higher growth countries.

Fiscal Consolidations: A Theoretical Essay with a Heterogeneous-Agent Model

ABSTRACT Since the emergence of the financial crisis, most of the EU countries have promoted impressive public interventions to support financial institutions, contributing to a significant rise in general government gross debt-to-GDP ratios. As such, the issue of how to best pursue a fiscal consolidation will become crucial regarding the fiscal policy stance. This paper aims at characterizing four different stylized debt consolidation strategies extensively identified in the literature (one pure revenue-based and three expenditure-based) in order to assess welfare affects and, in particular, the inequality effects involved. For this purpose, we built a general equilibrium heterogeneous-agent model capable of exploring the relationship between fiscal policy and the endogenous cross-section distribution of income and wealth. Moreover, we decompose the impacts on welfare criteria in order to distinguish pure efficiency effects from insurance and inequality effects. According to our simulations, the adjustment based on the reduction of unproductive expenditures came out to be the most welfare-enhancing compared to those based on tax increases or on social transfer reductions.