Anders Bryn

Recent forest limit changes in south-east Norway: Effects of climate change or regrowth after abandoned utilisation?

The forest limits of south-east Norway have expanded to higher altitudes. Two main processes are believed to cause these changes: regrowth after abandonment of human utilisation and recent climate changes. The article aims at separating the effects of these two processes on the upper forest limits and recent forest expansion. Four datasets representing 161.5 km2 have been used: climate data, downscaled climate change scenario data, forest height growth, and four vegetation maps. The maps represent the years 1959 and 2001, potential natural vegetation (PNV), and a climate change scenario (CCS). The recent upper potential climatic and edaphic forest limit (UPCEFL) was used to define the potential for forest regrowth after the abandonment of human utilisation. Forest height growth and climate data were then used to analyse any supplementary effect of recent climate change. The projected future forest limits were based on the IPCC IS92a scenario for 2020–2049. The results show that raised forest limits and forest range expansion often attributed to recent climate change is rather the product of regrowth, a process that was climatically retarded from 1959 to 1995. For the period 1995–2006, the data indicate a preliminary effect of climate change escalating the regrowth and probably pushing the future forest limits to higher altitudes.

Three methods for modelling potential natural vegetation (PNV) compared: A methodological case study from south-central Norway

The purpose of the study was to explore and compare three different methods for modelling potential natural vegetation (PNV), a hypothetic natural state of vegetation that shows natures biotic potential in the absence of human influence and disturbance. The vegetation was mapped in a south-central Norwegian mountain region, in a 34.2 km2 area around the village of Beitostølen, in 2009. The actual vegetation map (AVM) formed the basis for the development of PNV using three different modelling methods: (1) an expert-based manual modelling (EMM), (2) rule-based envelope GIS-modelling (RBM), and (3) a statistical predictive GIS-modelling method (Maxent). The article shows that the three modelling methods have different advantages, challenges and preconditions. The findings indicate that: (1) the EMM method should preferably be used only as a supplementary method in highly disturbed areas, (2) both the RBM and the Maxent methods perform well, (3) RBM performs especially well, but also Maxent are more objective methods than EMM and they are much easier to develop and re-run after model validation, (4) Maxent probably underestimates the potential distribution of some vegetation types, whereas RBM overestimates, (5) the Maxent output is relative probabilities of distribution, giving higher model variation than RBM.

Rule-based GIS-modelling for management purposes: A case study from the islands of Froan, Sør-Trøndelag, mid-western Norway

The coastal heath region along the western coast of Norway, dominated by Calluna vulgaris, is undergoing rapid change. Vegetation changes are caused by changes in management, including reduced frequency or abandonment of periodic heath burning and reduced cutting and grazing. The islands of Froan, in the outermost part of Sør-Trøndelag County in mid-western Norway, are dominated by coastal heath in a state of recession due to reduced traditional land use. The coastal heath is acknowledged as vulnerable and valuable by national environmental authorities, and local landscape management is supported by different national subsidies. The authors mapped the vegetation on Froan and used rule-based GIS-modelling to predict the relative potential for future vegetation changes. The model was based on a range of map layers, including management themes such as history of heath burning and peat removal, current practices of sheep grazing, and also themes derived from the vegetation map, such as soil nutrients, soil moisture and present management status. The resulting model output provides relative probabilities of future changes under different land-use scenarios, and highlights where management efforts should be focused in order to maintain the traditional landscape character.

Location of plant species in Norway gathered as a part of a survey vegetation mapping programme

Georeferenced species data have a wide range of applications and are increasingly used for e.g. distribution modelling and climate change studies. As an integrated part of an on-going survey programme for vegetation mapping, plant species have been recorded. The data described in this paper contains 18.521 registrations of plants from 1190 different circular plots throughout Norway. All species localities are georeferenced, the spatial uncertainty is provided, and additional ecological information is reported. The published data has been gathered from 1991 until 2015. The entries contain all higher vascular plants and pteridophytes, and some cryptogams. Other ecological information is also provided for the species locations, such as the vegetation type, the cover of the species and slope. The entire material is stored and available for download through the GBIF server.

Consistency in land‐cover mapping: Influence of field workers, spatial scale and classification system

In a rapidly changing world with increasing pressure on natural resources, landcover maps are of utmost importance for area planning and resource management (Fuchs, Herold, Verburg, Clevers, & Eberle, 2015). Landcover maps depict the physical cover of the surface of the Earth. Vegetation, for example the plant species composition (Box & Fujiwara, 2005), is the physical cover most often used for landcover mapping because plants are easy to observe and vegetation types can be identified using a wide variety of methods. The plant species composition reflects variation along important environmental complex gradients (Whittaker, 1967), thus vegetationbased landcover maps can also be used as a proxy for the ecosystem, i.e. all species present at a site, the environmental conditions and the processes and mechanisms by which the environment influences the species (cf. Tansley, 1935). Lakes, rock outcrops and vast areas of constructed sites and land otherwise heavily modified by man do, however, lack natural vegetation and hence are Received: 19 June 2017 | Accepted: 18 January 2018 DOI: 10.1111/avsc.12368

20th century Betula pubescens subsp. czerepanovii tree- and forest lines in Norway

Abstract Background Georeferenced tree- and forest line data has a wide range of applications and are increasingly used for e.g. monitoring of climate change impacts and range shift modelling. As part of a research project, registrations of previously re-mapped tree- and forest lines have been georeferenced. The data described in this paper contains 100 re-mapped registrations of Betula pubescens subsp. czerepanovii throughout Norway. All of the re-mapped tree- and forest line localities are georeferenced, elevation and aspect are given, elevational and spatial uncertainty are provided, and the re-mapping methods are explained. The published data weremapped for the first time between 1819 and 1963. The same sites were re-mapped between 1928 and 1996, but have until now been missing spatial coordinates. The entries contain 40 x 2 tree lines and 60 x 2 forest lines, most likely presenting the regionally highest registered tree- and forest lines at the given time. The entire material is stored and available for download through the GBIF server. New information Previously, the entries have been published in journals or reports, partly in Norwegian or German only. Without the provision of the spatial coordinates, the specific locations have been unknown. The material is now available for modelling and monitoring of tree- and forest line range shifts: The recordings are useful for interpretation of climate change impacts on tree- and forest lines, and the locations of re-mapped tree- and forest lines can be implemented in future monitoring projects. Since the recordings most likely provide the highest registered Betula pubescens subsp. czerepanovii locations within their specific regions, they are probably representing the contemporary physiognomic range limits.

Land cover in Norway based on an area frame survey of vegetation types

ABSTRACT The Norwegian area frame survey of land cover and outfield land resources (AR18X18), completed in 2014, provided unbiased statistics of land cover in Norway. The article reports the new statistics, discusses implications of the data set, and provides potential value in terms of research, management, and monitoring. A gridded sampling design for 1081 primary statistical units of 0.9 km2 at 18 km intervals was implemented in the survey. The plots were mapped in situ, aided by aerial photos, and all areas were coded following a vegetation type system. The results provide new insights into the cover and distribution of vegetation and land cover types. The statistic for mire and wetlands, which previously covered 5.8%, has since been corrected to 8.9%. The survey results can be used for environmental and agricultural management, and the data can be stratified for regional analyses. The survey data can also serve as training data for remote sensing and distribution modelling. Finally, the survey data can be used to calibrate vegetation perturbations in climate change research that focuses on atmospheric–vegetation feedback. The survey documented novel land cover statistics and revealed that the national cover of wetlands had previously been underestimated.

Elevational treeline and forest line dynamics in Norwegian mountain areas – a review

PurposeTreelines and forest lines (TFLs) have received growing interest in recent decades, due to their potential role as indicators of climate change. However, the understanding of TFL dynamics is challenged by the complex interactions of factors that control TFLs. The review aims to provide an overview over the trends in the elevational dynamics of TFLs in Norway since the beginning of the 20th century, to identify main challenges to explain temporal and spatial patterns in TFL dynamics, and to identify important domains for future research.MethodA systematic search was performed using international and Norwegian search engines for peer-reviewed articles, scientific reports, and MA and PhD theses concerning TFL changes.ResultsMost articles indicate TFL rise, but with high variability. Single factors that have an impact on TFL dynamics are well understood, but knowledge gaps exist with regard to interactions and feedbacks, especially those leading to distributional time lags. Extracting the most relevant factors for TFL changes, especially with regard to climate versus land-use changes, requires more research.ConclusionsExisting data on TFL dynamics provide a broad overview of past and current changes, but estimations of reliable TFL changes for Norway as a whole is impossible. The main challenges in future empirically-based predictions of TFLs are to understand causes of time lags, separate effects of contemporary processes, and make progress on the impacts of feedback and interactions. Remapping needs to be continued, but combined with both the establishment of representative TFL monitoring sites and field experiments.