Anders Ekbom

Thoracic Aortic Aneurysm and Dissection Increasing Prevalence and Improved Outcomes Reported in a Nationwide Population-Based Study of More Than 14 000 Cases From 1987 to 2002

Background— Current knowledge of prevalence, incidence, and survival in thoracic aortic diseases (aneurysm and dissection) is based on small studies from a dated era of treatment and diagnostic procedures. The objective of the present study was to reappraise epidemiology and long-term outcomes in subjects with thoracic aortic disease in a large contemporary population. Methods and Results— All subjects with thoracic aortic aneurysm or dissection identified in Swedish national healthcare registers from 1987 to 2002 were included in the present study. Of 14 229 individuals with thoracic aortic disease, 11 039 (78%) were diagnosed before death. Incidence of thoracic aortic disease rose by 52% in men and by 28% in women to reach 16.3 per 100 000 per year and 9.1 per 100 000 per year, respectively. Operations increased 7-fold in men and 15-fold in women over time. Of the 2455 patients who underwent operation, 389 (16%) died within 30 days, with older age and thoracic aortic rupture as risk factors. In Cox analysis, increasing age was the only variable associated with long-term mortality. Both short- and long-term mortality improved over time. In patients who underwent operation, actuarial survival (95% CI) at 1, 5, and 10 years was 92% (91% to 93%), 77% (75% to 80%), and 57% (53% to 61%), respectively. The cumulative incidence of thoracic aortic reoperations was 7.8% at 10 years. Conclusions— The prevalence and incidence of thoracic aortic disease was higher than previously reported and increasing. The annual number of operations increased substantially. Surgical (30-day) and long-term survival improved significantly over time to form a growing cohort of patients needing counseling, management decisions, operations, and extended postoperative surveillance.

Evidence of prenatal influences on breast cancer risk

Intrauterine exposure to high concentrations of endogenous pregnancy oestrogens may be important in the aetiology of breast cancer. In a nested case-control study we have assessed the relation between breast cancer risk and indicators of pregnancy oestrogen concentrations; pre-eclampsia/eclampsia is negatively related and measures of fetal size are positively related to oestrogen concentrations. Standard records for women born at Uppsala University Hospital between 1874 and 1954 were linked with records of invasive breast cancer cases, identified through their unique national registration numbers in the Swedish Cancer Registry during 1958-90. For each breast cancer case, we selected as potential controls female offspring of the first three mothers admitted to the hospital after the cases mother; only controls still living in Sweden and free from breast cancer when it was diagnosed in the case were finally included. Conditional logistic regression analysis was done for 458 breast cancer cases and 1197 matched controls. Pre-eclampsia/eclampsia was associated with a breast cancer rate ratio of 0.24 (95% confidence interval 0.09-0.70, p = 0.01). Linear trends for breast cancer incidence with increasing birth weight, birth length, and placental weight were positive but not significant. Thus, prenatal factors are important in breast carcinogenesis. Concentrations of pregnancy oestrogens may be one such factor, but other prenatal or perinatal factors cannot be excluded.

Crohn's disease: Pathogenesis and persistent measles virus infection

The Inflammatory Bowel Disease Study Group at the Royal Free Hospital School of Medicine has tested the hypothesis that the primary pathological abnormality in Crohns disease is in the mesenteric blood supply. Early morphological studies involved arterial perfusion-fixation and either resin casting and scanning electron microscopy or vascular immunostaining of resected intestine affected by Crohns disease. Granulomatous and lymphocytic damage to intramural blood vessels, even in macroscopically normal areas, was observed. We put forward possible mechanisms by which a chronic ischemic process might account for many of the idiosyncracies of Crohns disease. It was proposed that persistent viral infection of the mesenteric microvascular endothelium might underly this vasculitic process; based on certain behavioral characteristics of measles virus, including its tropism for the submucosal endothelium of the intestine, this agent was investigated further. This report reviews the preliminary evidence from both epidemiological and basic scientific data for persistent measles virus in the intestine of patients with Crohns disease. Possible mechanisms for virus persistence and subsequent reactivation are discussed. In conclusion, we believe that Crohns disease may be a chronic granulomatous vasculitis in reaction to a persistent infection with measles virus within the vascular endothelium. This granulomatous inflammation, perhaps aggravated by either a hypercoagulable state or mechanical stress, results in the clinical features of Crohns disease.

Dual effect of parity on breast cancer risk

This study examined whether breast cancer risk increased for a short period after childbirth, but decreased after a longer period of time. Data from an international case-control study on breast cancer conducted in the 1960s were used to study the modifying effect of age at enrolment on the relationship between parity and breast cancer risk, comparing first uniparous with nulliparous women, and then biparous versus uniparous women. The statistical analysis was performed by modelling through multiple logistic regression, adjusting for study site, age at menarche, menopausal status and obesity index. Comparing uniparous with nulliparous women, an early age at birth seems to be protective for all periods after birth, whereas a late age at birth imparts a higher risk than nulliparity in the period immediately after birth, which declines with the passage of time. The modification effect by age was not apparent when biparous women with different age at second birth were compared with uniparous women. The results support the hypothesis that pregnancy oestrogens impart a transient increase of maternal breast cancer risk when the full-term pregnancy occurs late in a womans life.

The aetiology and pathogenesis of human breast cancer.

Whilst investigators have clearly shown that non-hereditary factors dominate the aetiology of human breast cancer, they have failed to identify quantitatively important causes, and prospects for prevention remain indeed limited. However, progress in epidemiological and basic research has taken place during the last few years. Current evidence suggests that breast cancer may be affected by the intra-uterine environment, that exposures during adolescence are particularly important, and that pregnancy has a dual effect on breast cancer risk: an early increase followed by long-term protection. Great variation exists in the structural development of the breast ductal system already in the newborn--and by inference in utero--and a pregnancy induces permanent structural changes in the mammary gland. We suggest that these observations fit into an aetiological model with the following key components: (1) breast cancer risk depends on the number of cells at risk, the susceptibility of individual cells to malignant transformation, and on the degree of cellular proliferation, notably cells which can act as founders of breast cancer; (2) the number of target cells is determined by the hormonal environment mainly early in life, perhaps already in utero; (3) in adult life, hormones which are non-genotoxic, increase breast cancer risk by increasing selective cell proliferation and thus number of target cells and the risk of retention of spontaneous somatic mutations; (4) while a pregnancy stimulates the growth of already malignant cells or cells close to malignant transformation (and thereby entails a short-term risk increase) the dominating long-term protection occurs due to permanent structural changes, terminal differentiation and perhaps decreased cell proliferation and carcinogen-binding in combination.

Cholecystectomy and Colorectal Cancer

BACKGROUNDnAn increased risk of large bowel cancer, especially of the right colon, following cholecystectomy has been reported in some studies but contradicted in others. The aim of this study was to settle this question by creating a cohort of cholecystectomy patients that was large enough and with a sufficient follow-up time to detect even weak associations.nnnMETHODSnA population-based cohort consisting of 62,615 patients who underwent cholecystectomy was followed up for the occurrence of colorectal cancer up to 23 years.nnnRESULTSnThere were 633 colorectal cancers versus 637.9 expected (standardized incidence ratio [SIR] = 0.99; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.92-1.07). Analyses of an extensive number of subgroups including sex, age at operation, duration of follow-up, underlying diagnosis, type of operation, and different cancer sites did not show any association. However, for cancer of the right colon among women, the risk was increased (SIR = 1.24; 95% CI = 1.03-1.48) most prominent 15 years or more after operation (SIR = 1.54; 95% CI = 1.03-2.22).nnnCONCLUSIONSnOverall, there is no excess risk of colorectal cancer following cholecystectomy, but consistent with some earlier reports, we observed an increased risk among women for right-sided colon cancer 15 years or more after operation.

Increasing incidence of testicular cancer — birth cohort effects

The incidence of testicular cancer is rising in most Western populations. A collaborative study between nine population‐based cancer registries in countries around the Baltic Sea was utilized in order to analyze in detail geographic variations and temporal trends in the occurrence of testicular cancer. There were 34,309 cases registered up until 1989 starting in Denmark in 1942 and most recently in Latvia in 1977. From the descriptive epidemiology it was obvious that there was a substantial variation in the age‐standardized incidence amounting to about a 10‐fold difference between the different countries ranging from 0.8 per 100,000 person‐years in Lithuania to 7.6 per 100,000 person‐years in Denmark. Previous studies have indicated that this increase is due to birth cohort effects. A more detailed analysis was therefore performed in those six countries with a sufficiently long period of cancer registration; Poland, former East Germany, Norway, Finland, Denmark and Sweden. This analysis showed that birth cohort is a more important determinant of testicular cancer risk than year of diagnosis. In Poland, former East Germany and Finland, there was an increasing risk for all birth cohorts. Among men born in Denmark, Norway or Sweden between 1930 and 1945, this increasing trend in risk was interrupted in these birth cohorts but followed thereafter by an uninterrupted increase by birth cohort. In conclusion, life time exposure to environmental factors which are associated with the incidence of testicular cancer appear to be more related to birth cohort than to year of diagnosis. Because testicular cancer typically occurs at an early age, major etiological factors therefore need to operate early in life, perhaps even in utero.

Risk of extrahepatic bileduct cancer after cholecystectomy

The aetiology of cancer of the extrahepatic bile duct is unknown. Gallstones have been proposed to be a risk factor on the basis of ecological and epidemiological evidence. As gallstones are formed in the gallbladder, the occurrence of extrahepatic bileduct cancer in patients after cholecystectomy is of interest. All patients (62,734) who had had a cholecystectomy during 1965-1983 within the Uppsala Health Care Region, Sweden, were followed up to the end of 1987. Excluding the first year of follow-up, 23 cancers of the extrahepatic bileduct occurred vs 26.3 expected for a standardised incidence ratio (SIR) of 0.88 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.56-1.31). 10 years or more after operation there was a greater reduction of risk (SIR = 0.27; 95% CI 0.06-0.80). Similar patterns were observed for men and women, and among patients who had undergone cholecystectomy only compared with those who had had their common bileducts explored. To assess surveillance bias the incidence of primary liver cancer was also analysed: SIR = 1.15; 95% CI 0.91-1.44 overall, and 10 years or more after cholecystectomy SIR = 0.98; 95% CI 0.66-1.40. This study shows a reduced risk of extrahepatic bileduct cancer 10 or more years after cholecystectomy, indicating that gallstones may be a cause of this cancer.

Population density and childhood leukaemia: results of the EUROCLUS study

The EUROCLUS study assembled incidence data for 13,551 cases of childhood leukaemia (CL) diagnosed between 1980 and 1989 in 17 countries (or regions of countries). These were referenced by location at diagnosis to small census areas of which there were 25,723 in the study area. Population counts, surface area and, hence, population density were available for all these small areas. Previous analyses have shown limited extra-Poisson variation (EPV) of case counts within small areas; this is most pronounced in areas of intermediate population density (150-499 persons/km2). In this study, the data set was examined in more detail for evidence that variations in incidence and EPV of CL are associated with population density. Incidence showed a curvilinear association with population density and was highest in areas which were somewhat more densely populated (500-750 persons/km2), where the incidence rate ratio relative to areas having > or = 1000 persons/km2 was 1.16 (95% confidence interval 1.07-1.26) and the P value for quadratic trend across eight strata of population density was 0.02. Incidence in these areas is uniformly elevated and showed no evidence of heterogeneity (i.e. EPV). Statistically significant evidence of EPV was evident amongst some of the areas previously classified as intermediate density areas (specifically, those with a density of 250-499 persons/km2, P < 0.001 for CL). These results were interpreted in terms of the current aetiological hypotheses for CL which propose that exposure to localised epidemics of one or more common infectious agent may contribute to the development of leukaemia. They suggest that such epidemics arise regularly in moderately densely populated areas and also sporadically in areas which are somewhat less densely populated. Although other interpretations are possible, these results may assist in the identification of characteristics which infectious agents must possess if direct or indirect causes of CL.

Breast-feeding and breast cancer in the offspring

The causation of breast cancer in certain strains of mice by a virus that can be transmitted vertically, through the milk produced during lactation, has led to the hypothesis that a similar phenomenon could exist in humans. There have been laboratory-based studies in humans suggesting that a virus may be involved in the etiology of female breast cancer although other investigations did not support this hypothesis. Descriptive data and epidemiologic evidence of ecologic nature do not indicate a role of lactation in the causation of human breast cancer, but the hypothesis has not been adequately assessed in analytic epidemiologic studies. A nested case-control study undertaken in Sweden to examine the role of prenatal factors on breast cancer risk in the offspring, allowed the evaluation of the importance of breast-feeding in the causation of this disease. Standardised records concerning women born at the Uppsala University Hospital from 1874 to 1954 were linked with invasive breast cancer incident cases, identified through their unique national registration number in the Swedish Cancer Registry during 1958-1990. For each case with breast cancer, the females born to the first three mothers admitted after the cases mother were selected as potential matching controls. Only controls living in Sweden and free from breast cancer until the time of diagnosis of breast cancer in the corresponding case were eventually included in the study. The analysis was based on 458 cases of breast cancer born in singleton pregnancies and 1,197 singleton age- and birth date-matched controls. Breast-feeding was not a significant or suggestive risk factor for breast cancer in the offspring; compared to women who at discharge were wholly or partly breastfed, women who as newborn were not breastfed had a relative risk of breast cancer of 0.97 with 95% confidence interval 0.44-2.17 (P = 0.95).