Anders-Johan Almås

An approach to impact assessments of buildings in a changing climate

Future climate change caused by global warming could have dramatic consequences for the built environment. An approach is presented to understand and assess these impacts on the Norwegian building stock in a changing climate. The approach is tested using calculations for the decay potential in timber structures (possessing wood cladding, timber frames or both). First, building data and climate data are compiled in a Geographic Information System (GIS). Second, the computer model calculates the number of buildings that could be affected by a particular climate parameter for historical climate data (1961–1990) and a future climate scenario (2071–2100). The results show that today approximately 615 000 buildings are situated in areas with a high potential risk of rot-decay. In 2100 this number could increase to roughly 2.4 million. The large current amount of wooden buildings and a high number of building defects indicates that future new and refurbished buildings need to be built more robustly to meet the future impacts of climate change. Other climate parameters, e.g. sea level rise, changes in permafrost, the risk of frost decay, temperature change and changes in the amount of wet winter precipitation – are under investigation for their effect on the Norwegian building stock. Les changements climatiques futurs causés par le réchauffement planétaire pourraient avoir des conséquences dramatiques sur l’environnement bâti. Il est présenté une approche visant à comprendre et évaluer ces impacts sur le parc bâti norvégien sous un climat en évolution. Cette approche est testée en utilisant des calculs relatifs aux possibilités de pourrissement des structures en bois de construction (possédant des bardages en bois, des ossatures bois, voire les deux). Dans un premier temps, les données relatives aux bâtiments et les données relatives aux climats sont compilées dans un Système d’Information Géographique (SIG). Dans un second temps, le modèle informatique calcule le nombre de bâtiments qui pourraient être affectés par un paramètre climatique particulier dans le cadre des données climatiques historiques (1961–1990) et d’un scénario climatique futur (2071–2100). Les résultats montrent qu’aujourd’hui environ 615 000 bâtiments se situent dans des régions présentant un risque potentiel élevé de pourrissement. En 2100, ce nombre pourrait s’accroître jusqu’à atteindre environ 2,4 millions. La grande quantité actuelle de bâtiments en bois et un nombre élevé de défauts de construction indiquent qu’il faudrait que les futurs bâtiments neufs et rénovés soient construits de manière plus solide afin de répondre aux impacts futurs du changement climatique. D’autres paramètres climatiques – tels que par exemple l’élévation du niveau de la mer, les modifications du permafrost, le risque de pourrissement par le gel, les changements de température et les changements dans la quantité de précipitations des hivers humides – sont étudiés sous l’angle de leur effet sur le parc bâti norvégien. Mots clés: mesures d’adaptation, parc bâti, changement climatique, études d’impact, bâtiments solides, risque de pourrissement, bâtiments en bois, Norvège

Municipal collaborative planning boosting climate resilience in the built environment

Purpose A meta-study covering the past decade maps the development of Norwegian municipal planning, climate adaptation and institutional vulnerability towards climate change. This paper aims to explore the implementation of climate adaptive changes in Norwegian legal planning and building framework into municipal practice and policy instruments from 2007 to 2016. The study is planned to answer the question: what drivers ensure increased municipal efforts in their climate adaptive planning and building practice? Design/methodology/approach The paper presents empirical findings from two qualitative research projects, each with nine interviews of municipal key personnel within three municipalities’ planning and building services and an ongoing qualitative, expert interview-based study (eight individual/group interviews). Findings Risk reduction and climate resilience are still unsatisfactorily attended in many Norwegian municipalities. There is a gap between political and administrative levels in communicating bilateral expectations and needs for incorporation of climate adaptive measures. Policy instruments maintaining climate adaptation are in demand by different building process actors. Yet, extreme weather events seem to be the main drivers for actual implementation of climate change aspects into municipal policy instruments. Networking, both within and between municipalities, is an important strategy for learning climate adaptation. Research limitations/implications Both globally and in Norway, the focus on climate change impacts is steadily increasing. Municipal risk and vulnerability analyses are statutory, as is the incorporation of the results into local plans at appropriate levels. Originality/value The originality of this paper is the meta-perspective over the past decade, the qualitative approach and the use of environmental psychology theories.