Anders Omstedt

The freshwater budget and under-ice spreading of Mackenzie River water in the Canadian Beaufort Sea based on salinity and 18O/16O measurements in water and ice

Observations of salinity and oxygen isotope composition (δ18O) were made for the Beaufort shelf-Mackenzie estuary waters in September 1990, just prior to ice formation, and for both the water column and ice in April–May 1991, at the end of winter. These measurements are used to determine the apportioning of fresh water in the estuary between its two main sources, runoff and sea ice melt. Changes in disposition of water between seasons and amounts frozen into the growing ice sheet are also derived. Two domains are considered in order to construct a freshwater budget for the Mackenzie shelf, the nearshore within which landfast ice grows in winter and the outer shelf. Most of the winter inflow from the Mackenzie River appears to remain impounded as liquid under the ice within the landfast zone at the end of winter, and about 15% of it is incorporated into the landfast ice. Oxygen isotopes (δ18O) in ice cores collected from across the shelf record the progress beneath the ice of new Mackenzie inflow as it invades the nearshore throughout winter. Rates of spreading are about 0.2 cm s−1 away from the coast and 1.3 cm s−1 along the coast. As this inflow spreads across the shelf, it progressively shuts off convection driven by brine production at locations within the landfast ice. Salinity and δ18O in the offshore water column suggest that about 3 m of sea ice was formed in the outer shelf domain. Since both brine and newly formed sea ice can be advected off the shelf, a complete budget for brine or sea ice production cannot be established without first measuring the advection of one of these two components.

Influence of atmospheric circulation on the maximum ice extent in the Baltic Sea

This work analyzes long-term changes in the annual maximum ice extent in the Baltic Sea and Skagerrak between 1720 and 1997. It focuses on the sensitivity of the ice extent to changes in air temperature and on the relationships between the ice extent and large-scale atmospheric circulation. A significant regime shift in 1877 explains the decreasing trend in the ice extent. The regime shift indicates a change from a relatively cold climate regime to a relatively warm one, which is likely a result of changed atmospheric circulation. In addition, the analysis shows that a colder climate is associated with higher variability in the ice extent and with higher sensitivity of the ice extent to changes in winter air temperature. Moreover, the ice extent is fairly well correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index during winter, which supports the results of earlier studies. However, the moving correlation analysis shows that the relationship between the NAO index and the ice extent is not stationary over time. A statistical model was established that links the ice extent and a set of circulation indices. It not only confirms the importance of the zonal flow but also implies the impact of meridional wind and vorticity. The usefulness of the statistical model is demonstrated by comparing its performance with that of a numerical model and with independent observations. The statistical model achieves a skill close to that of the numerical model. We conclude that this model can be a useful tool in estimating the mean conditions of the ice extent from monthly pressures, allowing for the use of the general circulation model output for predictions of mean ice extent.

Modeling the variations of salinity and temperature in the large Gulfs of the Baltic Sea

The modeling of salinity and temperature in Gulf of Bothnia, Gulf of Finland, and Gulf of Riga is investigated by using a coupled sea ice-ocean Baltic Sea model. 18 years, from late 1980 to the end of 1998, have been investigated. The forcing data extracted taken from a gridded meteorological data base, sea level data from the Kattegat, and river runoff data to the different subbasins of the Baltic Sea from a hydrological data base. To improve the gridded meteorological data base a statistical model for the reduction of geostrophic winds to surface winds was developed. In the analysis it was shown that the calculated long-term salinity and temperature structures were stable and in good agreement with observations. This was made possible by using three different strait-flow models connecting the subbasins of the Baltic Sea. The seasonal and interannual variations of temperature and salinity were also well simulated by the model, implying that the coupling between the atmosphere and the Baltic Sea as well as the diapycnal mixing are reasonably well understood. The water cycle and the surface heat balance were calculated using the 18-year simulation. In the water-balance calculations it was shown that the volume flows from the large gulfs of the Baltic Sea were mainly due to baroclinic transports and that net precipitation added freshwater during the studied period, particularly to the large gulfs. From the heat-balance calculation it is concluded that the Baltic Sea is almost in local balance with the atmosphere. The Bothnian Bay, Gulf of Finland and Gulf of Riga loose heat, whereas the Bothnian Sea gains heat, calculated as long-term means.

Future changes in the Baltic Sea acid-base (pH) and oxygen balances

ABSTRACT Possible future changes in Baltic Sea acid–base (pH) and oxygen balances were studied using a catchment–sea coupled model system and numerical experiments based on meteorological and hydrological forcing datasets and scenarios. By using objective statistical methods, climate runs for present climate conditions were examined and evaluated using Baltic Sea modelling. The results indicate that increased nutrient loads will not inhibit future Baltic Sea acidification; instead, the seasonal pH cycle will be amplified by increased biological production and mineralization. All examined scenarios indicate future acidification of the whole Baltic Sea that is insensitive to the chosen global climate model. The main factor controlling the direction and magnitude of future pH changes is atmospheric CO2 concentration (i.e. emissions). Climate change and land-derived changes (e.g. nutrient loads) affect acidification mainly by altering the seasonal cycle and deep-water conditions. Apart from decreasing pH, we also project a decreased saturation state of calcium carbonate, decreased respiration index and increasing hypoxic area – all factors that will threaten the marine ecosystem. We demonstrate that substantial reductions in fossil-fuel burning are needed to minimise the coming pH decrease and that substantial reductions in nutrient loads are needed to reduce the coming increase in hypoxic and anoxic waters.

The Baltic Sea Experiment (BALTEX): A European Contribution to the Investigation of the Energy and Water Cycle over a Large Drainage Basin

The Baltic Sea Experiment (BALTEX) is one of the five continental-scale experiments of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX). More than 50 research groups from 14 European countries are participating in this project to measure and model the energy and water cycle over the large drainage basin of the Baltic Sea in northern Europe. BALTEX aims to provide a better understanding of the processes of the climate system and to improve and to validate the water cycle in regional numerical models for weather forecasting and climate studies. A major effort is undertaken to couple interactively the atmosphere with the vegetated continental surfaces and the Baltic Sea including its sea ice. The intensive observational and modeling phase BRIDGE, which is a contribution to the Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period of GEWEX, will provide enhanced datasets for the period October 1999-February 2002 to validate numerical models and satellite products. Major achievements have been obtained in an improved understanding of related exchange processes. For the first time an interactive atmosphere-ocean-land surface model for the Baltic Sea was tested. This paper reports on major activities and some results.

Coupling of a high-resolution atmospheric model and an ocean model for the Baltic Sea

Abstract The coupling between a high-resolution weather forecasting model and an ocean model is investigated. It is demonstrated by several case studies that improvements of short-range weather forecasting in the area of the Baltic Sea require an accurate description of the lower boundary condition over sea. The examples are taken from summer situations without sea ice as well as from winter situations with extreme sea ice conditions. It is shown that the sea state variables used in the model influence the weather forecast both directly on the local scale due to the local impact of surface fluxes of latent and sensible heat and on regional and larger scales. The convective snowbands during winters with cold airmass outbreaks over the open water surfaces of the Baltic Sea are extreme examples of the influence of sea state variables on a regional scale. It is furthermore demonstrated that the sea state conditions may change considerably within forecasting periods up to 48 h. This implies the necessary appli...

Simulation of supercooling and size distribution in frazil ice dynamics

Abstract The objective of the work presented is to formulate a mathematical description of frazil ice dynamics. The formulation is to be in balance with the current knowledge of the physical processes, for example secondary nucleation. As the knowledge of some of these processes is fragmentary, this means that a conceptually simple formulation is sought. A number of processes are known to influence the supercooling rate and the frazil ice production. The present formulation accounts for the following processes: initial seeding, secondary nucleation, gravitational removal, growth due to cooling of water volume and flocculation/break up. Equations are formulated for these processes considering a resolution in time and radius of particles but not in space (well-mixed jar). The equations are solved using a simple explicit numerical scheme. Preliminary results indicate that the model can be calibrated to describe the experimental results reported in the literature. It is mainly the supercooling curves that are used for comparison but some information about the crystal size distribution is also considered. It is to be noted that the model is calibrated to fit the experiments, due to the lack of detailed mathematical description of some of the physical processes. Sensitivity analysis is also used in order to establish that the model behaves according to experimental findings and expectations. The main conclusion of the study is that a fairly simple mathematical model can be formulated and calibrated, which fits the experimental data reported in the literature hitherto. It is further concluded that a resolution in radial space gives additional insight into the dynamics of the process. The evolution of the size distribution and its sensitivity to seeding and dissipation rate has been predicted with results that look physically plausible.

Measured and simulated latent and sensible heat fluxes at two marine sites in the Baltic Sea

In this study, turbulent heat flux data from two sites within the Baltic Sea are compared with estimates from two models. The main focus is on the latent heat flux. The measuring sites are located on small islands close to the islands of Bornholm and Gotland. Both sites have a wide wind direction sector with undisturbed over-water fetch. Mean parameters and direct fluxes were measured on masts during May to December 1998.The two models used in this study are the regional-scale atmospheric model HIRLAM and the ocean model PROBE-Baltic. It is shown that both models overestimate the sensible and latent heat fluxes. The overestimation can, to a large extent, be explained by errors in the air-water temperature and humidity differences. From comparing observed and modelled data, the estimated 8-month mean errors in temperature and humidity are up to 1 °C and 1 g kg-1, respectively. The mean errors in the sensible and latent heat fluxes for the same period are approximately 15 and 30 W m-2, respectively.Bulk transfer coefficients used for calculating heat and humidity fluxes at the surface were shown to agree rather well with the measurements, at least for the unstable data. For stable stratification, the scatter in data is generally large, and it appears that the bulk formulation chosen overestimates turbulent heat fluxes.

Factors influencing the acid-base (pH) balance in the Baltic Sea: a sensitivity analysis

Using calculations based on the marine carbon system and on modelling, the sensitivity of Baltic Sea surface pH was examined. Transient long-term calculations demonstrated that the marine carbon system adjusts to lateral boundary conditions within some decades, as does salinity. Climate changes in temperature or salinity will only marginally affect the acid–base (pH) balance. Wetter or dryer climate will also play a minor role in the pH balance. The direct effect on seawater pH of acid precipitation over the Baltic Sea surface was demonstrated to be small. Acidification due to river transport of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) into the marine system seems marginal although mineralization of terrestrial DOC may cause extra marine acidification, but the effect has yet to be quantified. Increased nutrient load may increase the amplitude in the pH seasonal cycle and increase the acidification during winter time. Fossil fuel burning is likely to have both a direct and indirect effect through increased CO2 levels, altering seawater pH as well as changing the river chemistry. This may severely threaten some species in the Baltic Sea, particularly in the Northern Baltic.

Ice growth and oceanic heat flux: Models and measurements

Heat fluxes at the ice-ocean interface and ice thickness are investigated by comparing field data from the Coordinated Eastern Arctic Experiment (CEAREX) drift phase with model calculations. The calculations are based on two types of models. The first one is a one-dimensional ice-ocean model with high vertical resolution. This model is based on the conservation equations for heat, salt, and momentum and uses turbulence models to achieve closure. A discrete element approach is also introduced to explicitly parameterize the ice roughness. The second model is a simple one-dimensional bulk heat transfer model. In this version, the interfacial salinity is modelled on the basis of salt conservation at the ice-ocean interface. The bulk heat transfer model is then calibrated using the former model. The two models predict ocean heat fluxes that are quite variable in time owing to short-term variations in the ice drift. Both models calculate realistic ice thicknesses. It is demonstrated that the observed time variation in ice thickness from eight different experimental sites with varying initial thicknesses and bottom topographies can be reproduced by applying bulk heat transfer coefficients in the range (2.8 ± 1) × 10−4. Horizontal variation of the thermal state within a single pack ice floe results in simultaneous freezing and melting over relatively small spatial scales. When modeling or averaging ice data in space these aspects need to be considered.