Andre Carl Horn

A geodemographic profiler for high offender propensity areas in the city of Tshwane, South Africa

Postapartheid South Africa has been plagued by an increase in crime across all categories. While a significant amount of criminological research has been undertaken in the country, the spatial analysis of crime and offenders, a basic prerequisite for a functional crime management strategy, has not been adequately addressed at a sufficiently fine scale of aggregation. This paper reports on the geodemographic development of offender risk profiles for neighbourhoods in the City of Tshwane Metropolitan Municipality in South Africa. Geodemographics is a relatively new geo-analytical technique that is being increasingly used in policing applications to complement law enforcement techniques and provide further insight into offenders and their offences. Findings of the study indicate that neighbourhoods at a high risk for offender development are amongst the most socially and economically deprived in the municipality and are disproportionately occupied by black Africans. The results highlight a need to reassess the current law enforcement approach to crime reduction in the country and return to the crime prevention initiatives that were part of the National Crime Prevention Strategy of the 1990s.

South African territorial segregation: new data on African farm purchases, 1913-1936

By using new sources and a complementary historical and geo-analytical approach, this article illustrates that the Natives Land Act (no. 27 of 1913) failed to stop Africans from buying land. New evidence demonstrates that African land ownership outside the reserves in the Transvaal actually increased after 1913. This evidence leads to a deeper questioning of the extent to which the South African government was able to impose rural territorial segregation by 1936 and reveals the limits of white power in the early Union period.

How many people are there in Winterveld? What a proper census should show

ConclusionThe views presented in this paper give an indication of what can be expected from a properly conducted census in Winterveld. Certainly it will indicate a population much smaller than generally expected. Moreover, it brings into the spotlight what could be a general phenomenon: exaggerated informal population levels in South Africa, and, furthermore, it questions the reliability of indirect census survey procedures.