André Gergs

Chemical and natural stressors combined: from cryptic effects to population extinction.

In addition to natural stressors, populations are increasingly exposed to chemical pollutants released into the environment. We experimentally demonstrate the loss of resilience for Daphnia magna populations that are exposed to a combination of natural and chemical stressors even though effects on population size of a single stressor were cryptic, i.e. hard to detect statistically. Data on Daphnia population demography and along with model-based exploration of our predator-prey system revealed that direct trophic interactions changed the population size-structure and thereby increased population vulnerability to the toxicant which acts in a size selective manner. Moreover, population vulnerability to the toxicant increases with predator size and predation intensity whereas indirect trait-mediated interactions via predator kairomones may buffer chemical effects to a certain extent. Our study demonstrates that population size can be a poor endpoint for risk assessments of chemicals and that ignoring disturbance interactions can lead to severe underestimation of extinction risk.

Modelling survival : exposure pattern, species sensitivity and uncertainty

The General Unified Threshold model for Survival (GUTS) integrates previously published toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models and estimates survival with explicitly defined assumptions. Importantly, GUTS accounts for time-variable exposure to the stressor. We performed three studies to test the ability of GUTS to predict survival of aquatic organisms across different pesticide exposure patterns, time scales and species. Firstly, using synthetic data, we identified experimental data requirements which allow for the estimation of all parameters of the GUTS proper model. Secondly, we assessed how well GUTS, calibrated with short-term survival data of Gammarus pulex exposed to four pesticides, can forecast effects of longer-term pulsed exposures. Thirdly, we tested the ability of GUTS to estimate 14-day median effect concentrations of malathion for a range of species and use these estimates to build species sensitivity distributions for different exposure patterns. We find that GUTS adequately predicts survival across exposure patterns that vary over time. When toxicity is assessed for time-variable concentrations species may differ in their responses depending on the exposure profile. This can result in different species sensitivity rankings and safe levels. The interplay of exposure pattern and species sensitivity deserves systematic investigation in order to better understand how organisms respond to stress, including humans.

Identification of realistic worst case aquatic macroinvertebrate species for prospective risk assessment using the trait concept

PurposeApproaches in environmental risk assessment for pesticides are becoming more and more realistic. Thereby, risk assessment has to be protective in a way that no long-lasting (adverse) effects on populations will occur in the environment. Since this imperative includes species generally showing high population vulnerability due to their life history traits, prospective risk assessment should be based on realistic worst cases. Based on life history traits, the purpose of the current study was to verify whether a worst case combination of low potential for intrinsic recovery and low ability for recolonisation can be found in the field.MethodsCombinations of traits related to dispersal ability and reproduction of macroinvertebrates were investigated using monitoring data from edge of field water bodies in Germany. The relative distribution of traits was analyzed across different agricultural regions and across sites of different potential for exposure to pesticides. Species were sorted in a tiered approach in order to gain a list of realistic worst case species.ResultsLife history traits were found equally distributed across different regions. Thereby, dispersal ability and voltinism were not randomly combined. Within the data analysed, low dispersal ability was found to be exclusive to semivoltine taxa. Owing to their appearance in reference sites, poor dispersal ability and a long time reproduction, three species were considered potentially worst case.ConclusionsThe trait approach was found to be suitable in comparing trait distributions within different regions and in compiling a list of critical taxa for consideration in environmental risk assessment.

Diurnal and nocturnal functional response of juvenile Notonecta maculata considered as a consequence of shifting predation behaviour

Presence or absence of light is considered to significantly affect predation within freshwater communities. In relation to light regime, the scope of the present study is to identify proximate factors accounting for different rates of predation in juvenile Notonecta maculata. It has been shown that foraging of juvenile N. maculata on Daphnia magna is reduced under dark conditions. These differences are accounted for by the presence/absence of light and are not regulated by any endogenous circadian rhythm. Direct observation of predation components revealed that in the dark, daphnid prey is detected at shorter distances, thus lowering the rate of encounter which finally results in a decreasing number of prey items eaten. Handling time was found to significantly increase during dark periods. Since the amount of food ingested per prey item increases to a certain extent with increasing handling time, it is suggested that the decreasing number of daphnids consumed is compensated by gaining a higher amount of food per item during a lengthier, more thorough, handling of the prey. A mechanistic model that describes the foraging process along a general predation cycle was parameterized based on the results of direct observations, instead of using classic functional response curves. This allows the comparison of model output to independent functional response data. A good correlation between observed and predicted data confirms the assumption that the reduction of the nocturnal predation rate is caused by shifting predation behaviour and indicates that the crucial light/dark differences in the foraging of N. maculata are considered in the approach.

Body size-dependent toxicokinetics and toxicodynamics could explain intra- and interspecies variability in sensitivity

Ecological risk assessment of chemicals aims at quantifying the likelihood of adverse effects posed to non-target populations and the communities they constitute, often based on lethal concentration estimates for standard test species. There may, however, be intra- and interspecific differences in responses to chemical exposure. Here with the help of a toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic model, we explored whether differential body sizes might explain the observed variability in sensitivity between species and between life-stages of each individual species, for three model organisms, Daphnia magna, Chaoborus crystallinus and Mesocyclops leuckarti. While body size-dependent toxicokinetics could be used to predict intraspecies variation in sensitivity, our results also suggest that changes in both toxicokinetic and toxicodynamic parameters might be needed to describe differential species sensitivity. Accounting for biological traits, like body size, in mechanistic effect models will allow more accurate predictions of chemical effects in size structured populations, ultimately providing mechanistic explanations for species sensitivity distributions.

Family-portraits for daphnids : scanning living individuals and populations to measure body length

A method has been developed and tested to determine the body length of living daphnids. The purpose of the method was the simple, accurate, repeatable, quick, and to the living organism, harmless measurement of body length of all individuals in a population to enhance the capability of observing population development over time. Generally, organisms are transferred to a petri dish and temporarily fixed by removing access medium. A picture of the petri dish is taken using an ordinary flatbed scanner. Pictures are manually analysed with purposely developed software. We found no significant impact of the method on either individual performance (growth and reproduction) or population development (abundance and structure) of daphnids in comparison to the previously used method for data gathering (sieving, counting and length measurement of a subsample via microscopy). The disadvantage of our method, an increased demand in time for picture analysis, is negligible compared to the advantages this method has. Data generated with the new method do represent the population structure more accurately than those data generated with the previously used method. Scanning organisms does also allow a retrospective quality control for generated data as pictures can securely be stored. The quality of the pictures is furthermore sufficient to include additional endpoints to the analysis (e.g., number and size of aborts, number and size of eggs in the brood pouch, spine length). Here, we present, test and discuss an alternative approach to automated image analysis for data gathering in single and multiple individual and species experiments.

Ecological Recovery Potential of Freshwater Organisms: Consequences for Environmental Risk Assessment of Chemicals

Chemical contaminants released into the in the environment may have adverse effects on (non-target) species, populations and communities. The return of a stressed system to its pre-disturbance or other reference state, i.e. the ecological recovery, may depend on various factors related to the affected taxon, the ecosystem of concern and the type of stressor with consequences for the assessment and management of risks associated with chemical contaminants. Whereas the effects caused by short-term exposure might be acceptable to some extent, the conditions under which ecological recovery can serve as a decision criterion in the environmental risk assessment of chemical stressors remains to be evaluated. For a generic consideration of recovery in the risk assessment of chemicals, we reviewed case studies of natural and artificial aquatic systems and evaluate five aspects that might cause variability in population recovery time: (1) taxonomic differences and life-history variability, (2) factors related to ecosystem type and community processes, (3) type of disturbance, (4) comparison of field and semi-field studies, and (5) effect magnitude, i.e., the decline in population size following disturbance. We discuss our findings with regard to both retrospective assessments and prospective risk assessment.

Demographic Toxicokinetic–Toxicodynamic Modeling of Lethal Effects

The aquatic effect assessment of chemicals is largely based on standardized measures of toxicity determined in short-term laboratory tests which are designed to reduce variability. For this purpose, uniform individuals of a species are kept under environmental and chemical exposure conditions which are as constant as possible. In nature, exposure often appears to be pulsed, effects might last longer than a few days, sensitivity might vary among different sized organisms and populations are usually size or age structured and are subject to demographic processes. To overcome this discrepancy, we tested toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models of different complexities, including body size scaling approaches, for their ability to represent lethal effects observed for Daphnia magna exposed to triphenyltin. The consequences of the different toxicokinetic and toxicodynamic assumptions for population level responses to pulsed exposure are tested by means of an individual based model and are evaluated by confronting model predictions with population data for various pulsed exposure scenarios. We provide an example where increased model complexity reduces the uncertainty in model outputs. Furthermore, our results emphasize the importance of considering population demography in toxicokinetics and toxicodynamics for understanding and predicting potential chemical impacts at higher levels of biological organization.

Structure and Sensitivity Analysis of Individual-based Predator-Prey Models

Abstract The expensive computational cost of sensitivity analyses has hampered the use of these techniques for analysing individual-based models in ecology. A relatively cheap computational cost, referred to as the Morris method, was chosen to assess the relative effects of all parameters on the model’s outputs and to gain insights into predator–prey systems. Structure and results of the sensitivity analysis of the Sumatran tiger model – the Panthera Population Persistence (PPP) and the Notonecta foraging model (NFM) – were compared. Both models are based on a general predation cycle and designed to understand the mechanisms behind the predator–prey interaction being considered. However, the models differ significantly in their complexity and the details of the processes involved. In the sensitivity analysis, parameters that directly contribute to the number of prey items killed were found to be most influential. These were the growth rate of prey and the hunting radius of tigers in the PPP model as well as attack rate parameters and encounter distance of backswimmers in the NFM model. Analysis of distances in both of the models revealed further similarities in the sensitivity of the two individual-based models. The findings highlight the applicability and importance of sensitivity analyses in general, and screening design methods in particular, during early development of ecological individual-based models. Comparison of model structures and sensitivity analyses provides a first step for the derivation of general rules in the design of predator–prey models for both practical conservation and conceptual understanding.

Modeling Wood Encroachment in Abandoned Grasslands in the Eifel National Park - Model Description and Testing.

The degradation of natural and semi-natural landscapes has become a matter of global concern. In Germany, semi-natural grasslands belong to the most species-rich habitat types but have suffered heavily from changes in land use. After abandonment, the course of succession at a specific site is often difficult to predict because many processes interact. In order to support decision making when managing semi-natural grasslands in the Eifel National Park, we built the WoodS-Model (Woodland Succession Model). A multimodeling approach was used to integrate vegetation dynamics in both the herbaceous and shrub/tree layer. The cover of grasses and herbs was simulated in a compartment model, whereas bushes and trees were modelled in an individual-based manner. Both models worked and interacted in a spatially explicit, raster-based landscape. We present here the model description, parameterization and testing. We show highly detailed projections of the succession of a semi-natural grassland including the influence of initial vegetation composition, neighborhood interactions and ungulate browsing. We carefully weighted the single processes against each other and their relevance for landscape development under different scenarios, while explicitly considering specific site conditions. Model evaluation revealed that the model is able to emulate successional patterns as observed in the field as well as plausible results for different population densities of red deer. Important neighborhood interactions such as seed dispersal, the protection of seedlings from browsing ungulates by thorny bushes, and the inhibition of wood encroachment by the herbaceous layer, have been successfully reproduced. Therefore, not only a detailed model but also detailed initialization turned out to be important for spatially explicit projections of a given site. The advantage of the WoodS-Model is that it integrates these many mutually interacting processes of succession.