Andre Van Poeck

Measuring and estimating exchange market pressure in the EU

Abstract This paper estimates a model of exchange market pressure for several EU currencies vis-a-vis the German mark over the period 1980–94. It differs from previous work in that we use principal components analysis to derive a measure of exchange market pressure, rather than adding exchange rate and reserves changes or using ad hoc weighting schemes. Secondly, we also try to explain movements in our measure of exchange market pressure by a wealth-augmented monetary model. The results suggest that exchange market pressure can indeed be explained by differential money growth, the change in the long-term interest rate differential, real depreciation, budget deficit and the current account for five members of the EUs Exchange Rate Mechanism.

Exchange Rate Regimes and Exchange Market Pressure in the New EU Member States

Economic theory has stressed the vulnerability to currency crises of intermediate exchange regimes. ERM II constitutes a fixed but adjustable pegged exchange rate arrangement and can therefore be categorized as an intermediate regime, in contrast to polar regimes such as currency boards and freely floating exchange rates. Our regression results for eight new EU Member States reveal the role of economic fundamentals in explaining exchange market pressure in these countries and confirm the bipolar view on exchange rate regimes. We conclude that the new EU members should not enter ERM II before their fundamentals are strong enough to compensate for the vulnerability of the exchange rate regime. Otherwise the condition for entering EMU, i.e. preceding participation in ERM II without devaluation or serious tensions on the exchange market, could be jeopardized.

EMU and labour market reform: Needs, incentives and realisations

Despite improving labour market conditions in recent years, a number of EMU countries still suffer from high and persistent unemployment. It could therefore be expected that labour market reform would be given a prominent position on the political agenda. The new constraints associated with the common monetary policy only increase the pressure for reform. Relying on the introduction of the single currency as a trigger for labour market reform may be a risky strategy. EMU generates a complex set of re-optimising strategies of the players on the labour market, which makes it difficult to get a clear idea what impact it will have on labour market reform. Evaluation of recent reform measures does not make one confident either. The empirical analysis confirms to some extent the idea that countries with higher unemployment rates have carried out more labour market reform. This finding holds, however, only for countries that do not belong to EMU. EMU countries have on average carried out no more reform than countries outside EMU and any link between the initial unemployment level and the labour market reform indicators seems to lack. It may become apparent that more reform is needed once the macroeconomic environment becomes more unfavourable. Copyright Blackwell Publishers Ltd 2001.

Dominant interest and inflation differentials within the EMS: a comment

Abstract In a recent article in this review, Koedijk and Kool (1992) (K&K) have argued that the EMS has not functioned as a DM zone. They use a modified version of the principal components analysis to show that deviating movements in inflation and interest rates have always existed (and still exist) between Germany and the Netherlands on the one hand, and Belgium, France and Italy on the other. They conclude that Germany has in practice not dominated the EMS bloc and that the participating countries have enjoyed some freedom in setting their monetary policy. In this comment we challenge their conclusion. We use cluster analysis to show that the EMS has gradually evolved into a DM-zone. We also disagree with another conclusion of K&K that the United Kingdom in practice always belonged to the DM-group. Indeed, we show that this is only true for a few years.

One Money and Sixteen Needs: Has the ECB’s Monetary Policy Become More Balanced Towards the Needs of the Member States?

SummaryIn this paper we analyze whether the ECB’s monetary policy has become more balanced towards the needs of the individual member states with the passage of time. We assume that the ECB’s monetary policy stance is in line with a Taylor rule and based on the overall situation in the Euro area, more specifically on the Euro area inflation rate and the overall business cycle position in the area. The question therefore boils down to investigating whether inflation and business cycles have converged since the start of the monetary union. We show that the ECB, if in existence in the 1990s, would have had an impossible task. This is because inflation and business cycles still strongly differed in that time, although convergence substantially increased in the run up to the monetary union. In this respect, the decade under EMU drastically differs from the preceding one. This being said, the evidence for a further improvement in the course of the first decade of the new millennium is mixed. This is because although inflation has further converged, business cycles have shown a tendency for increased divergence. If, however, we are willing to put weights on inflation and output gap divergence (as implied by the Taylor rule), we conclude that also in the course of the period under EMU in general the ECB’s monetary policy has become more in line with the needs of the individual members. Looking at individual countries, we show that during the first decade of its existence the ECB’s interest rate was most fitted to the needs of France and Italy, and least to the needs of Ireland and Greece (both too low) and Germany (too high). To a lesser extent there were also mismatches for Spain and Portugal (both too low). In the more recent period since 2005, the mismatch between the desired domestic interest rate and the desired ECB rate has come down for most countries (most noticeable Germany). For Belgium (for which a higher interest rate was more appropriate), on the other hand, the mismatch increased. These overall positive findings, however, offer no guarantee that the task of the ECB will become easier in the future.

Central bank independence: Only part of the inflation story

Summary Central bank independence: Only part of the inflation storyThe idea that countries with an independent central bank perform better on price stability is very popular and confirmed by studies investigating the issue empirically. Yet, using the Barro-Gordon model we show that the gains from a more independent central bank are not fixed. They are larger in countries with unstable governments, not committed to fixed exchange rates, and in countries were left-wing parties hold a strong position. The effect of increasing central bank independence is also shown to depend on the level of the natural unemployment rate and the slope of the short-term Phillips curve.

Portfolio and Short-term Capital Inflows to the New and Potential EU Countries: Patterns and Determinants

This unique and fascinating book illustrates that the ‘credit crunch’ and the ensuing financial and economic crisis of 2007–2009 did not only strike hard at the economy in the Western world, but also at its policymakers, at economics as a scientific discipline and, more specifically, at the process of European integration itself.

European Monetary Integration

This highly topical book examines the development and future prospects for economic and monetary union in Europe. European Monetary Integration examines the background to economic and monetary union from a historical perspective that distinguishes between national and supranational currency areas, and an optimal currency area theory. The gradualist transition process is also considered.

The historical background to European Monetary Union

This highly topical book examines the development and future prospects for economic and monetary union in Europe. European Monetary Integration examines the background to economic and monetary union from a historical perspective that distinguishes between national and supranational currency areas, and an optimal currency area theory. The gradualist transition process is also considered.

EMU and European unemployment

This highly topical book examines the development and future prospects for economic and monetary union in Europe. European Monetary Integration examines the background to economic and monetary union from a historical perspective that distinguishes between national and supranational currency areas, and an optimal currency area theory. The gradualist transition process is also considered.