Andrea B Feigl

Global burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors for young people's health during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

BACKGROUND Young peoples health has emerged as a neglected yet pressing issue in global development. Changing patterns of young peoples health have the potential to undermine future population health as well as global economic development unless timely and effective strategies are put into place. We report the past, present, and anticipated burden of disease in young people aged 10-24 years from 1990 to 2013 using data on mortality, disability, injuries, and health risk factors. METHODS The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) includes annual assessments for 188 countries from 1990 to 2013, covering 306 diseases and injuries, 1233 sequelae, and 79 risk factors. We used the comparative risk assessment approach to assess how much of the burden of disease reported in a given year can be attributed to past exposure to a risk. We estimated attributable burden by comparing observed health outcomes with those that would have been observed if an alternative or counterfactual level of exposure had occurred in the past. We applied the same method to previous years to allow comparisons from 1990 to 2013. We cross-tabulated the quantiles of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by quintiles of DALYs annual increase from 1990 to 2013 to show rates of DALYs increase by burden. We used the GBD 2013 hierarchy of causes that organises 306 diseases and injuries into four levels of classification. Level one distinguishes three broad categories: first, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders; second, non-communicable diseases; and third, injuries. Level two has 21 mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive categories, level three has 163 categories, and level four has 254 categories. FINDINGS The leading causes of death in 2013 for young people aged 10-14 years were HIV/AIDS, road injuries, and drowning (25·2%), whereas transport injuries were the leading cause of death for ages 15-19 years (14·2%) and 20-24 years (15·6%). Maternal disorders were the highest cause of death for young women aged 20-24 years (17·1%) and the fourth highest for girls aged 15-19 years (11·5%) in 2013. Unsafe sex as a risk factor for DALYs increased from the 13th rank to the second for both sexes aged 15-19 years from 1990 to 2013. Alcohol misuse was the highest risk factor for DALYs (7·0% overall, 10·5% for males, and 2·7% for females) for young people aged 20-24 years, whereas drug use accounted for 2·7% (3·3% for males and 2·0% for females). The contribution of risk factors varied between and within countries. For example, for ages 20-24 years, drug use was highest in Qatar and accounted for 4·9% of DALYs, followed by 4·8% in the United Arab Emirates, whereas alcohol use was highest in Russia and accounted for 21·4%, followed by 21·0% in Belarus. Alcohol accounted for 9·0% (ranging from 4·2% in Hong Kong to 11·3% in Shandong) in China and 11·6% (ranging from 10·1% in Aguascalientes to 14·9% in Chihuahua) of DALYs in Mexico for young people aged 20-24 years. Alcohol and drug use in those aged 10-24 years had an annual rate of change of >1·0% from 1990 to 2013 and accounted for more than 3·1% of DALYs. INTERPRETATION Our findings call for increased efforts to improve health and reduce the burden of disease and risks for diseases in later life in young people. Moreover, because of the large variations between countries in risks and burden, a global approach to improve health during this important period of life will fail unless the particularities of each country are taken into account. Finally, our results call for a strategy to overcome the financial and technical barriers to adequately capture young peoples health risk factors and their determinants in health information systems. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Quality maternity care for every woman, everywhere: a call to action

To improve maternal health requires action to ensure quality maternal health care for all women and girls, and to guarantee access to care for those outside the system. In this paper, we highlight some of the most pressing issues in maternal health and ask: what steps can be taken in the next 5 years to catalyse action toward achieving the Sustainable Development Goal target of less than 70 maternal deaths per 100 000 livebirths by 2030, with no single country exceeding 140? What steps can be taken to ensure that high-quality maternal health care is prioritised for every woman and girl everywhere? We call on all stakeholders to work together in securing a healthy, prosperous future for all women. National and local governments must be supported by development partners, civil society, and the private sector in leading efforts to improve maternal-perinatal health. This effort means dedicating needed policies and resources, and sustaining implementation to address the many factors influencing maternal health-care provision and use. Five priority actions emerge for all partners: prioritise quality maternal health services that respond to the local specificities of need, and meet emerging challenges; promote equity through universal coverage of quality maternal health services, including for the most vulnerable women; increase the resilience and strength of health systems by optimising the health workforce, and improve facility capability; guarantee sustainable finances for maternal-perinatal health; and accelerate progress through evidence, advocacy, and accountability.

Taxes on Sugar-Sweetened Beverages to Reduce Overweight and Obesity in Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Review

Background The consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), which can lead to weight gain, is rising in middle-income countries (MICs). Taxing SSBs may help address this challenge. Systematic reviews focused on high-income countries indicate that taxing SSBs may reduce SSB consumption. Responsiveness to price changes may differ in MICs, where governments are considering the tax. To help inform their policy decisions, this review compiles evidence from MICs, assessing post-tax price increases (objective 1), changes in demand for SSBs and other products, overall and by socio-economic groups (objective 2), and effects on overweight and obesity prevalence (objective 3). Methods and Findings We conducted a systematic review on the effectiveness of SSB taxation in MICs (1990–2016) and identified nine studies from Brazil, Ecuador, India, Mexico, Peru, and South Africa. Estimates for own-price elasticity ranged from -0.6 to -1.2, and decreases in SSB consumption ranged from 5 to 39 kilojoules per person per day given a 10% increase in SSB prices. The review found that milk is a likely substitute, and foods prepared away from home, snacks, and candy are likely complements to SSBs. A quasi-experimental study and two modeling studies also found a negative relationship between SSB prices and obesity outcomes after accounting for substitution effects. Estimates are consistent despite variation in baseline obesity prevalence and per person per day consumption of SSBs across countries studied. Conclusions The review indicates that taxing SSBs will increase the prices of SSBs, especially sugary soda, in markets with few producers. Taxing SSBs will also reduce net energy intake by enough to prevent further growth in obesity prevalence, but not to reduce population weight permanently. Additional research using better survey data and stronger study designs is needed to ascertain the long-term effectiveness of an SSB tax on obesity prevalence in MICs.

Multimorbidity: What do we know? What should we do?

Multimorbidity, which is defined as the co-occurrence of two or more chronic conditions, has moved onto the priority agenda for many health policymakers and healthcare providers. Patients with multimorbidity are high utilizers of healthcare resources and are some of the most costly and difficult-to-treat patients in Europe. Preventing and improving the way multimorbidity is managed is now a key priority for many countries, and work is at last underway to develop more sustainable models of care. Unfortunately, this effort is being hampered by a lack of basic knowledge about the aetiology, epidemiology, and risk factors for multimorbidity, and the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of different interventions. The European Commission recognizes the need for reform in this area and has committed to raising awareness of multimorbidity, encouraging innovation, optimizing the use of existing resources, and coordinating the efforts of different stakeholders across the European Union. Many countries have now incorporated multimorbidity into their own healthcare strategies and are working to strengthen their prevention efforts and develop more integrated models of care. Although there is some evidence that integrated care for people with multimorbidity can create efficiency gains and improve health outcomes, the evidence is limited, and may only be applicable to high-income countries with relatively strong and well-resourced health systems. In low- to middle-income countries, which are facing the double burden of infectious and chronic diseases, integration of care will require capacity building, better quality services, and a stronger evidence base.

Evidenced Formal Coverage Index and universal healthcare enactment: A prospective longitudinal study of economic, social, and political predictors of 194 countries

Determinants of universal healthcare (UHC) are poorly empirically understood. We undertook a comprehensive study of UHC development using a novel Evidenced Formal Coverage (EFC) index that combines three key UHC elements: legal framework, population coverage, and accessibility. Applying the EFC index measures (legislation, ≥90% skilled birth attendance, ≥85% formal coverage) to 194 countries, aggregating time-varying data from 1880-2008, this study investigates which macro-economic, political, and social indicators are major longitudinal predictors of developing EFC globally, and in middle-income countries. Overall, 75 of 194 countries implemented legal-text UHC legislation, of which 51 achieved EFC. In a country-year prospective longitudinal analysis of EFC prediction, higher GDP-per-capita (per GDP-per-capita doubling, relative risk [RR]=1.77, 95% CI: 1.49-2.10), higher primary school completion (per +20% completion, RR=2.30, 1.65-3.21), and higher adult literacy were significantly associated with achieving EFC. Results also identify a GDP-per-capita of I

The Effect of HIV and the Modifying Effect of Anti-Retroviral Therapy (ART) on Body Mass Index (BMI) and Blood Pressure Levels in Rural South Africa

5000 as a minimum level for development of EFC. GDP-per-capita and education were each robust predictors in middle-income countries, and education remained significant even controlling for time-varying GDP growth. For income-inequality, the GINI coefficient was suggestive in its role in predicting EFC (p=0.024). For social and political indicators, a greater degree of ethnic fractionalization (per +25%, RR=0.51, 0.38-0.70), proportional electoral system (RR=2.80, 1.22-6.40), and dictatorships (RR=0.10, 0.05-0.27) were further associated with EFC. The novel EFC index and this longitudinal prospective study together indicate that investment in both economic growth and education should be seen of equal importance for development of UHC. Our findings help in understanding the social and political drivers of universal healthcare, especially for transitioning countries.

Trans-disciplinary education and training for NCD prevention and control

Background High BMI and blood pressure are leading chronic disease risk factors in South Africa. Longterm effects of HIV and ART on adiposity and blood pressure are poorly understood, and direct comparisons of risk factor trajectories in HIV- versus HIV+ populations are rare. Methods In 2003 and 2010, height, weight, and blood pressure were recorded in a study population (n = 505) in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa (30% adult HIV prevalence). We modeled change in BMI and BP longitudinally in HIV- individuals (n = 315), seroconverters (n = 32), HIV+ patients not on ART (HIV+ART−; n = 52), HIV+ patients on ART for 0–<2 years as of 2010 (HIV+ART0–<2 yrs; n = 18), patients on ART for 2–5 years (HIV+ART2–5yrs; n = 44), and a subgroup with unknown HIV status (n = 44). Difference-in-differences were assessed in reference to the HIV- population. Results Between 2003 and 2010, BMI increased significantly in the HIV- group, by 0.874 (95% CI 0.339, 1.41; p = 0.001), to 30.4. BMI drop was significantly greater in HIV+ART0-<2yrs than in HIV+ART2–5yrs (p = 0.005). DID in BMI in HIV+ART0-<2yrs versus the reference was -5.21 (95% CI -7.53, -2.90; p = 0.001), and DID in HIV+ART2–5yrs versus reference was -1.35 (95% CI -2.89, 0.189; p = 0.086). DID in SBP in HIV+ART−vs HIV- DID was -7.55 mmHg (95% CI -13.2 to -1.90; p = 0.009). Conclusion Short-term ART (0–<2 years) was associated with larger weight loss than either no ART or long-term ART. Once on ART for 2+ years, individuals ‘caught up’ on weight gain with the HIV- population. Our results showcase the importance of health system readiness to address the burgeoning double burden of disease in South Africa.

Misalignment between perceptions and actual global burden of disease: evidence from the US population

Non-communicable, chronic diseases (NCDs) account for 70% of morbidity and over 60% of mortality worldwide [1]. Previously thought to be simply a normative consequence of aging, NCDs are largely preventable through maintenance of healthy behaviors and optimizing risk factors such as smoking, body weight, blood pressure, cholesterol, and glucose throughout the lifespan. However, in current modern environments, few individuals are able to maintain an ideal set of health behaviors and the subsequent optimal risk factor profile throughout their lives. In fact, precursors of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and certain cancers are increasingly common in children, adolescents, and young adults [2]. Upstream social determinants that influence behaviors which can lead to NCDs are complex and include individual-level drivers such as gender, education, and socioeconomic position; populationlevel drivers such as the level of urbanization, the built environment, and the food system; and macro-level drivers such as trade agreements and taxation policies [3]. Given such complex inputs, there is growing realization that NCD prevention and control requires trans-disciplinary efforts to achieve real change [4]. This awareness, particularly the realization that NCD burdens are an overlooked barrier to development towards achieving the Millennium Development Goals [5], has prompted the United Nations to schedule a

Population-level decline in BMI and systolic blood pressure following mass HIV treatment: Evidence from rural KwaZulu-Natal

Significant funding of health programs in low-income countries comes from external sources, mainly private donors and national development agencies of high-income countries. How these external funds are allocated remains a subject of ongoing debate, as studies have revealed that external funding may misalign with the underlying disease burden. One determinant of the priorities set by both private donors and development agencies is the perceptions of populations living in high-income countries about which diseases are legitimate for global health intervention. While research has been conducted on the priorities expressed by recipient communities, relatively less has been done to assess those of the donating country. To investigate peoples beliefs about the disease burden in high-income countries, we compared publicly available data from U.S. surveys of peoples perceptions of the leading causes of death in developing countries against measures of the actual disease burden from the World Health Organization. We found little correlation between the U.S. publics perception and the actual disease burden, measured as either mortality or disability-adjusted life years. While there is potential for reverse causality, so that donor programs drive public perceptions, these findings suggest that increasing the general populations awareness of the true global disease burden could help better align global health funding with population health needs.

Teenage smoking behaviour following a high-school smoking ban in Chile: interrupted time-series analysis

Clinic‐based studies have shown that patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) gain weight after initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART). This study aimed to determine whether the scale‐up of ART was associated with a population‐level increase in body mass index (BMI) and blood pressure (BP) in a community with high HIV and obesity prevalence.