Andrea Bravi

Review and classification of variability analysis techniques with clinical applications

Analysis of patterns of variation of time-series, termed variability analysis, represents a rapidly evolving discipline with increasing applications in different fields of science. In medicine and in particular critical care, efforts have focussed on evaluating the clinical utility of variability. However, the growth and complexity of techniques applicable to this field have made interpretation and understanding of variability more challenging. Our objective is to provide an updated review of variability analysis techniques suitable for clinical applications. We review more than 70 variability techniques, providing for each technique a brief description of the underlying theory and assumptions, together with a summary of clinical applications. We propose a revised classification for the domains of variability techniques, which include statistical, geometric, energetic, informational, and invariant. We discuss the process of calculation, often necessitating a mathematical transform of the time-series. Our aims are to summarize a broad literature, promote a shared vocabulary that would improve the exchange of ideas, and the analyses of the results between different studies. We conclude with challenges for the evolving science of variability analysis.

Monitoring and Identification of Sepsis Development through a Composite Measure of Heart Rate Variability

Tracking the physiological conditions of a patient developing infection is of utmost importance to provide optimal care at an early stage. This work presents a procedure to integrate multiple measures of heart rate variability into a unique measure for the tracking of sepsis development. An early warning system is used to illustrate its potential clinical value. The study involved 17 adults (age median 51 (interquartile range 46–62)) who experienced a period of neutropenia following chemoradiotherapy and bone marrow transplant; 14 developed sepsis, and 3 did not. A comprehensive panel (N = 92) of variability measures was calculated for 5 min-windows throughout the period of monitoring (12±4 days). Variability measures underwent filtering and two steps of data reduction with the objective of enhancing the information related to the greatest degree of change. The proposed composite measure was capable of tracking the development of sepsis in 12 out of 14 patients. Simulating a real-time monitoring setting, the sum of the energy over the very low frequency range of the composite measure was used to classify the probability of developing sepsis. The composite revealed information about the onset of sepsis about 60 hours (median value) before of sepsis diagnosis. In a real monitoring setting this quicker detection time would be associated to increased efficacy in the treatment of sepsis, therefore highlighting the potential clinical utility of a composite measure of variability.

Variability Analysis and the Diagnosis, Management, and Treatment of Sepsis

Severe sepsis leading to organ failure is the most common cause of mortality among critically ill patients. Variability analysis is an emerging science that characterizes patterns of variation of physiologic parameters (e.g., vital signs) and is believed to offer a means for evaluating the underlying complex system producing those dynamics. Recent studies have demonstrated that variability of a variety of physiological parameters offers a novel means for helping diagnose, manage, and treat sepsis. The purpose of this literature review is to examine existing data regarding the use of variability analysis in patients suffering from sepsis and to highlight potential uses for variability in improving care for patients with sepsis. Recent articles published on heart rate, respiratory rate, temperature, and glucose variability are reviewed. The association between reduced heart rate and temperature variability and sepsis and its severity, the relationship between augmented glucose variability and mortality risk, and current uses of respiratory rate variability in critically ill patients will all be discussed. These findings represent early days in the understanding of variability alteration and its physiological significance; further research is required to understand and implement variability analyses into meaningful clinical decision support algorithms. Large, multicenter observational studies are needed to derive and validate the associations between variability and clinical events and outcomes in order to realize the potential of variability to change sepsis care and improve clinical outcomes.

Do heart and respiratory rate variability improve prediction of extubation outcomes in critically ill patients

IntroductionProlonged ventilation and failed extubation are associated with increased harm and cost. The added value of heart and respiratory rate variability (HRV and RRV) during spontaneous breathing trials (SBTs) to predict extubation failure remains unknown.MethodsWe enrolled 721 patients in a multicenter (12 sites), prospective, observational study, evaluating clinical estimates of risk of extubation failure, physiologic measures recorded during SBTs, HRV and RRV recorded before and during the last SBT prior to extubation, and extubation outcomes. We excluded 287 patients because of protocol or technical violations, or poor data quality. Measures of variability (97 HRV, 82 RRV) were calculated from electrocardiogram and capnography waveforms followed by automated cleaning and variability analysis using Continuous Individualized Multiorgan Variability Analysis (CIMVA™) software. Repeated randomized subsampling with training, validation, and testing were used to derive and compare predictive models.ResultsOf 434 patients with high-quality data, 51 (12%) failed extubation. Two HRV and eight RRV measures showed statistically significant association with extubation failure (P <0.0041, 5% false discovery rate). An ensemble average of five univariate logistic regression models using RRV during SBT, yielding a probability of extubation failure (called WAVE score), demonstrated optimal predictive capacity. With repeated random subsampling and testing, the model showed mean receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (ROC AUC) of 0.69, higher than heart rate (0.51), rapid shallow breathing index (RBSI; 0.61) and respiratory rate (0.63). After deriving a WAVE model based on all data, training-set performance demonstrated that the model increased its predictive power when applied to patients conventionally considered high risk: a WAVE score >0.5 in patients with RSBI >105 and perceived high risk of failure yielded a fold increase in risk of extubation failure of 3.0 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2 to 5.2) and 3.5 (95% CI 1.9 to 5.4), respectively.ConclusionsAltered HRV and RRV (during the SBT prior to extubation) are significantly associated with extubation failure. A predictive model using RRV during the last SBT provided optimal accuracy of prediction in all patients, with improved accuracy when combined with clinical impression or RSBI. This model requires a validation cohort to evaluate accuracy and generalizability.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT01237886. Registered 13 October 2010.

Continuous Multiorgan Variability monitoring in critically ill patients — Complexity science at the bedside

Complex systems science has led to valuable insights regarding the care and understanding of critical illness, but has not led to fundamental improvements to care to date. Realizing the fact that there is inherent uncertainty in patient trajectory, we have developed Continuous Individual Multiorgan Variability Analysis (CIMVA) as a tool theoretically and practically designed to track the systemic emergent properties of the host response to injury or infection. We present an overview of CIMVA software, and discuss four separate potential clinical applications that we are evaluating; including early detection of infection, better prediction of extubation failure, continuous monitoring of severity of illness in the ICU, and the evaluation of cardiopulmonary fitness. Future challenges are discussed in conclusion.

Do physiological and pathological stresses produce different changes in heart rate variability

Although physiological (e.g., exercise) and pathological (e.g., infection) stress affecting the cardiovascular system have both been documented to be associated with a reduction in overall heart rate variability (HRV), it remains unclear if loss of HRV is ubiquitously similar across different domains of variability analysis or if distinct patterns of altered HRV exist depending on the stressor. Using Continuous Individualized Multiorgan Variability Analysis (CIMVA™) software, heart rate (HR) and four selected measures of variability were measured over time (windowed analysis) from two datasets, a set (n = 13) of patients who developed systemic infection (i.e., sepsis) after bone marrow transplant (BMT), and a matched set of healthy subjects undergoing physical exercise under controlled conditions. HR and the four HRV measures showed similar trends in both sepsis and exercise. The comparison through Wilcoxon sign-rank test of the levels of variability at baseline and during the stress (i.e., exercise or after days of sepsis development) showed similar changes, except for LF/HF, ratio of power at low (LF) and high (HF) frequencies (associated with sympathovagal modulation), which was affected by exercise but did not show any change during sepsis. Furthermore, HRV measures during sepsis showed a lower level of correlation with each other, as compared to HRV during exercise. In conclusion, this exploratory study highlights similar responses during both exercise and infection, with differences in terms of correlation and inter-subject fluctuations, whose physiologic significance merits further investigation.

Segmentation and classification of capnograms: application in respiratory variability analysis.

Variability analysis of respiratory waveforms has been shown to provide key insights into respiratory physiology and has been used successfully to predict clinical outcomes. The current standard for quality assessment of the capnogram signal relies on a visual analysis performed by an expert in order to identify waveform artifacts. Automated processing of capnograms is desirable in order to extract clinically useful features over extended periods of time in a patient monitoring environment. However, the proper interpretation of capnogram derived features depends upon the quality of the underlying waveform. In addition, the comparison of capnogram datasets across studies requires a more practical approach than a visual analysis and selection of high-quality breath data. This paper describes a system that automatically extracts breath-by-breath features from capnograms and estimates the quality of individual breaths derived from them. Segmented capnogram breaths were presented to expert annotators, who labeled the individual physiological breaths into normal and multiple abnormal breath types. All abnormal breath types were aggregated into the abnormal class for the purpose of this manuscript, with respiratory variability analysis as the end-application. A database of 11,526 breaths from over 300 patients was created, comprising around 35% abnormal breaths. Several simple classifiers were trained through a stratified repeated ten-fold cross-validation and tested on an unseen portion of the labeled breath database, using a subset of 15 features derived from each breath curve. Decision Tree, K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) and Naive Bayes classifiers were close in terms of performance (AUC of 90%, 89% and 88% respectively), while using 7, 4 and 5 breath features, respectively. When compared to airflow derived timings, the 95% confidence interval on the mean difference in interbreath intervals was ± 0.18 s. This breath classification system provides a fast and robust pre-processing of continuous respiratory waveforms, thereby ensuring reliable variability analysis of breath-by-breath parameter time series.

Comparison of heart and respiratory rate variability measures using an intermittent incremental submaximal exercise model

To better understand the alterations in cardiorespiratory variability during exercise, the present study characterized the patterns of change in heart rate variability (HRV), respiratory rate variability (RRV), and combined cardiorespiratory variability (HRV-RRV) during an intermittent incremental submaximal exercise model. Six males and six females completed a submaximal exercise protocol consisting of an initial baseline resting period followed by three 10-min bouts of exercise at 20%, 40%, and 60% of maximal aerobic capacity (V̇O2max). The R-R interval and interbreath interval variability were measured at baseline rest and throughout the submaximal exercise. A group of 93 HRV, 83 RRV, and 28 HRV-RRV measures of variability were tracked over time through a windowed analysis using a 5-min window size and 30-s window step. A total of 91 HRV measures were able to detect the presence of exercise, whereas only 46 RRV and 3 HRV-RRV measures were able to detect the same stimulus. Moreover, there was a loss of overall HRV and RRV, loss of complexity of HRV and RRV, and loss of parasympathetic modulation of HRV (up to 40% V̇O2max) with exercise. Conflicting changes in scale-invariant structure of HRV and RRV with increases in exercise intensity were also observed. In summary, in this simultaneous evaluation of HRV and RRV, we found more consistent changes across HRV metrics compared with RRV and HRV-RRV.

Erratum to: Do heart and respiratory rate variability improve prediction of extubation outcomes in critically ill patients? [Critical Care 2014 18, 620] DOI: 10.1186/s13054-014-0620-z

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Local Oriented Potential Fields: Self Deployment and Coordination of an Assembling Swarm of Robots

In the fields of swarm and modular robotics, one of the main challenges is to deploy and coordinate the robots in ways that are useful for solving different tasks. The aim of the research we are presenting is to create a self-organizing deployment and coordination system to improve the assembling phase of a group of robots capable of docking with each other. To achieve the presented goal a new technique, namely the “local oriented potential fields,” is combined with physicomimetics (artificial physics) and the behavioral coordination paradigm. The proposed solution offers a way to create four different types of deployments (square, line, star and tree), providing specific properties during the assembly and the solution of tasks. Simulations with NetLogo are used to prove the validity of the proposed ideas.