Andrea Consiglio

Asset and liability modelling for participating policies with guarantees

We study the problem of asset and liability management of participating insurance policies with guarantees. We develop a scenario optimization model for integrative asset and liability management, analyze the tradeoffs in structuring such policies, and study alternative choices in funding them. The nonlinearly constrained optimization model can be linearized through closed form solutions of the dynamic equations. Thus large-scale problems are solved with standard methods. We report on an empirical analysis of policies offered by Italian insurers. The optimized model results are in general agreement with current industry practices. However, some inefficiencies are identified and potential improvements are highlighted.

Integrated simulation and optimization models for tracking international fixed income indices

Abstract.Portfolio managers in the international fixed income markets must address jointly the interest rate risk in each market and the exchange rate volatility across markets. This paper develops integrated simulation and optimization models that address these issues in a common framework. Monte Carlo simulation procedures generate jointly scenarios of interest and exchange rates and, thereby, scenarios of holding period returns of the available securities. The portfolio manager’s risk tolerance is incorporated either through a utility function or a (modified) mean absolute deviation function. The optimization models prescribe asset allocation weights among the different markets and also resolve bond-picking decisions. Therefore several interrelated decisions are cast in a common framework. Two models – an expected utility maximization and a mean absolute deviation minimization – are implemented and tested empirically in tracking a composite index of the international bond markets. Backtesting over the period January 1997 to July 1998 illustrate the efficacy of the optimization models in dealing with uncertainty and tracking effectively the volatile index. Of particular interest is the empirical demostration that the integrative models generate portfolios that dominate the portfolios obtained using classical disintegrated approaches.

The Value of Integrative Risk Management for Insurance Products with Guarantees

Insurers increasingly offer policies that converge with the products of the capital markets and they face pressing needs for integrative asset and liability management strategies. In this paper we show that an integrative approach-based on scenario optimization modelling-adds value to the risk management process, when compared to traditional methods. Empirical analysis with products offered by the Italian insurance industry are presented. The results have implications for the design of competitive insurance policies, and some examples are analyzed. • This article first appeared in The Journal of Risk Finance, Spring 200 I , see http://www.iijrf.com/. Reprinted with pennission.

Designing Portfolios of Financial Products Via Integrated Simulation and Optimization Models

We analyze the problem of debt issuance through the sale of innovative financial products. The problem is broken down to questions of designing the financial products, specifying the debt structure with the amount issued in each product, and determining an optimal level of financial leverage. We formulate a hierarchical optimization model to integrate these three issues and provide constructive answers. Input data for the models are obtained from Monte Carlo simulation procedures that generate scenarios of holding period returns of the designed products. The hierarchical optimization model is specialized for the problem of issuing a portfolio of callable bonds to fund mortgage assets. The upper level optimization program is multimodal, and a tabu search procedure is developed for its solution. Empirical results illustrate the efficacy of the developed models in designing the appropriate structure of the callable bonds and making optimal allocations of equity and debt among the designed products. Computational results with the implementation of tabu search-on both serial and parallel computers-are also presented.

Pricing the Option to Surrender in Incomplete Markets

New international accounting standards require insurers to reflect the value of embedded options and guarantees in their products. Pricing techniques based on the Black and Scholes paradigm are often used; however, the hypotheses underneath this model are rarely met. We propose a framework that encompasses the most known sources of incompleteness. We show that the surrender option, joined with a wide range of claims embedded in insurance contracts, can be priced through our tool, and deliver hedging portfolios to mitigate the risk arising from their positions. We provide extensive empirical analysis to highlight the effect of incompleteness on the fair value of the option.

A model for designing callable bonds and its solution using tabu search

Abstract We formulate the problem of designing callable bonds as a non-linear, global, optimization problem. The data of the model are obtained from simulations of holding-period returns of a given bond design, which are used to compute a certainty equivalent return, viz., some target assets. The design specifications of the callable bond are then adjusted so that the certainty equivalent return is maximized. The resulting problem is multi-modal, and a tabu search procedure, implemented on a distributed network of workstations, is used to optimize the bond design. The model is compared with the classical portfolio immunization model, and the tabu search solution technique is compared with simulated annealing for solving the global optimization program. It is shown that the global optimization model yields higher returns than portfolio immunization. It is also shown that tabu search is computationally more efficient than simulated annealing in solving the model, and it produces better solutions.

A Stochastic Programming Model for the Optimal Issuance of Government Bonds

Sovereign states issue fixed and floating securities to fund their public debt. The value of such portfolios strongly depends on the fluctuations of the term structure of interest rates. This is a typical example of planning under uncertainty, where decisions have to be taken on the base of the key stochastic economic factors underneath the model.

Scenario optimization asset and liability modelling for individual investors

We develop a scenario optimization model for asset and liability management of individual investors. The individual has a given level of initial wealth and a target goal to be reached within some time horizon. The individual must determine an asset allocation strategy so that the portfolio growth rate will be sufficient to reach the target. A scenario optimization model is formulated which maximizes the upside potential of the portfolio, with limits on the downside risk. Both upside and downside are measured vis-à-vis the goal. The stochastic behavior of asset returns is captured through bootstrap simulation, and the simulation is embedded in the model to determine the optimal portfolio. Post-optimality analysis using out-of-sample scenarios measures the probability of success of a given portfolio. It also allows us to estimate the required increase in the initial endowment so that the probability of success is improved.

Risk Management Optimization for Sovereign Debt Restructuring

Abstract Debt restructuring is one of the policy tools available for resolving sovereign debt crises and, while unorthodox, it is not uncommon. We propose a scenario analysis for debt sustainability and integrate it with scenario optimization for risk management in restructuring sovereign debt. The scenario dynamics of debt-to-GDP ratio are used to define a tail risk measure, termed conditional Debt-at-Risk. A multi-period stochastic programming model minimizes the expected cost of debt financing subject to risk limits. It provides an operational model to handle significant aspects of debt restructuring: it collects all debt issues in a common framework, and can include contingent claims, multiple currencies and step-up or linked contractual features. Alternative debt profiles – obtained by maturity rescheduling, interest payment concessions or nominal value haircuts – are analyzed for their expected cost-risk tradeoffs. With a suitable re-calculation of the efficient frontier, the risk of debt un-sustainability of alternative risk profiles can be ascertained with a given confidence level. The model is applied to Greece sovereign debt crisis analyzing the suitability of various proposals to restore debt sustainability.

A simulation analysis of the microstructure of an order driven financial market with multiple securities and portfolio choices

In this paper we propose an artificial market where multiple risky assets are exchanged. Agents are constrained by the availability of resources and trade to adjust their portfolio according to an exogenously given target portfolio. We model the trading mechanism as a continuous auction order-driven market. Agents are heterogeneous in terms of desired target portfolio allocations, but they are homogeneous in terms of trading strategies. We investigate the role played by the trading mechanism in affecting the dynamics of prices, trading volume and volatility. We show that the institutional setting of a double auction market is sufficient to generate a non-normal distribution of price changes and temporal patterns that resemble those observed in real markets. Moreover, we highlight the role played by the interaction between individual wealth constraints and the market frictions associated with a double auction system to determine the negative asymmetry of the stock returns distribution.