Andrea Kiss

Changing climate shifts timing of European floods

Flooding along the river Will a warming climate affect river floods? The prevailing sentiment is yes, but a consistent signal in flood magnitudes has not been found. Blöschl et al. analyzed the timing of river floods in Europe over the past 50 years and found clear patterns of changes in flood timing that can be ascribed to climate effects (see the Perspective by Slater and Wilby). These variations include earlier spring snowmelt floods in northeastern Europe, later winter floods around the North Sea and parts of the Mediterranean coast owing to delayed winter storms, and earlier winter floods in western Europe caused by earlier soil moisture maxima. Science, this issue p. 588 see also p. 552 Climate change is affecting the timing of river flooding across Europe. A warming climate is expected to have an impact on the magnitude and timing of river floods; however, no consistent large-scale climate change signal in observed flood magnitudes has been identified so far. We analyzed the timing of river floods in Europe over the past five decades, using a pan-European database from 4262 observational hydrometric stations, and found clear patterns of change in flood timing. Warmer temperatures have led to earlier spring snowmelt floods throughout northeastern Europe; delayed winter storms associated with polar warming have led to later winter floods around the North Sea and some sectors of the Mediterranean coast; and earlier soil moisture maxima have led to earlier winter floods in western Europe. Our results highlight the existence of a clear climate signal in flood observations at the continental scale.

The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case

The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic anomalies outside of previous experience, are often taken as harbingers of more frequent extremes in the global warming-influenced future. However, a recent reconstruction of spring–summer temperatures for WE resulted in the likelihood of significantly higher temperatures in 1540. In order to check the plausibility of this result we investigated the severity of the 1540 drought by putting forward the argument of the known soil desiccation-temperature feedback. Based on more than 300 first-hand documentary weather report sources originating from an area of 2 to 3 million km2, we show that Europe was affected by an unprecedented 11-month-long Megadrought. The estimated number of precipitation days and precipitation amount for Central and Western Europe in 1540 is significantly lower than the 100-year minima of the instrumental measurement period for spring, summer and autumn. This result is supported by independent documentary evidence about extremely low river flows and Europe-wide wild-, forest- and settlement fires. We found that an event of this severity cannot be simulated by state-of-the-art climate models.

Increasing river floods: fiction or reality?

There has been a surprisingly large number of major floods in the last years around the world, which suggests that floods may have increased and will continue to increase in the next decades. However, the realism of such changes is still hotly discussed in the literature. This overview article examines whether floods have changed in the past and explores the driving processes of such changes in the atmosphere, the catchments and the river system based on examples from Europe. Methods are reviewed for assessing whether floods may increase in the future. Accounting for feedbacks within the human‐water system is important when assessing flood changes over lead times of decades or centuries. It is argued that an integrated flood risk management approach is needed for dealing with future flood risk with a focus on reducing the vulnerability of the societal system. WIREs Water 2015, 2:329–344. doi: 10.1002/wat2.1079 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.

An experimental 392-year documentary-based multi-proxy (vine and grain) reconstruction of May-July temperatures for Kőszeg, West-Hungary

In this paper, we present a 392-year-long preliminary temperature reconstruction for western Hungary. The reconstructed series is based on five vine- and grain-related historical phenological series from the town of Kőszeg. We apply dendrochronological methods for both signal assessment of the phenological series and the resultant temperature reconstruction. As a proof of concept, the present reconstruction explains 57% of the temperature variance of May–July Budapest mean temperatures and is well verified with coefficient of efficiency values in excess of 0.45. The developed temperature reconstruction portrays warm conditions during the late seventeenth and early eighteenth centuries with a period of cooling until the coldest reconstructed period centred around 1815, which was followed by a period of warming until the 1860s. The phenological evidence analysed here represent an important data source from which non-biased estimates of past climate can be derived that may provide information at all possible time-scales.

Land use change impacts on floods at the catchment scale : Challenges and opportunities for future research

Abstract Research gaps in understanding flood changes at the catchment scale caused by changes in forest management, agricultural practices, artificial drainage, and terracing are identified. Potential strategies in addressing these gaps are proposed, such as complex systems approaches to link processes across time scales, long‐term experiments on physical‐chemical‐biological process interactions, and a focus on connectivity and patterns across spatial scales. It is suggested that these strategies will stimulate new research that coherently addresses the issues across hydrology, soil and agricultural sciences, forest engineering, forest ecology, and geomorphology.

14th-16th-Century Danube Floods and Long-Term Water-Level Changes in Archaeological and Sedimentary Evidence in The Western and Central Carpathian Basin: an Overview with Documentary Comparison

Abstract In the present paper an overview of published and unpublished results of archaeological and sedimentary investigations, predominantly reflect on 14th-16th-century changes, are provided and evidence compared to documentary information on flood events and long-term changes. Long-term changes in flood behaviour (e.g. frequency, intensity, seasonality) and average water-level conditions had long-term detectable impacts on sedimentation and fluvio-morphological processes. Moreover, the available archaeological evidence might also provide information on the reaction of the society, in the form of changes in settlement organisation, building structures and processes. At present, information is mainly available concerning the 16th, and partly to the 14th-15th centuries. These results were compared to the available documentary evidence on 14th-16th century Danube floods occurred in the Carpathian Basin.

Tree-rings and people – different views on the 1540 Megadrought. Reply to Büntgen et al. 2015

Buntgen et al. (2015; hereinafter B15) present the result of new research which question the results of Wetter et al. 2014, (hereinafter W14) and Wetter et al. (2013, hereinafter W13)regarding European climate in 1540. B15 conclude from tree-ring evidence that the results based on documentary data of W14 probably overstated the intensity and duration of the 1540 drought event. W14 termed it Megadrought because of its extreme duration and spatial extent compared to other drought events in central Europe, although they note that the term is generally used for decadal rather than for single-year droughts (Seneviratne et al. 2012). We take the opportunity to recall the following issues. Firstly, when dealing with drought the complexity of this phenomenon should be kept in mind. Meteorological drought defined as a large negative precipitation anomaly during a certain period can trigger agricultural, hydrological, groundwater and socioeconomic droughts. Lloyd-Hughes (2013] and references cited herein) concluded that any workable objective definition of drought does not exist. To quantify droughts, various indices based on precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration are used such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Z-index and PDSI. Their calculation depends on different periods (seasons, combination of months) and so different indices may classify the same drought episode differently (e.g. Brazdil et al.2014).

A fuzzy Bayesian approach to flood frequency estimation with imprecise historical information

Abstract This paper presents a novel framework that links imprecision (through a fuzzy approach) and stochastic uncertainty (through a Bayesian approach) in estimating flood probabilities from historical flood information and systematic flood discharge data. The method exploits the linguistic characteristics of historical source material to construct membership functions, which may be wider or narrower, depending on the vagueness of the statements. The membership functions are either included in the prior distribution or the likelihood function to obtain a fuzzy version of the flood frequency curve. The viability of the approach is demonstrated by three case studies that differ in terms of their hydromorphological conditions (from an Alpine river with bedrock profile to a flat lowland river with extensive flood plains) and historical source material (including narratives, town and county meeting protocols, flood marks and damage accounts). The case studies are presented in order of increasing fuzziness (the Rhine at Basel, Switzerland; the Werra at Meiningen, Germany; and the Tisza at Szeged, Hungary). Incorporating imprecise historical information is found to reduce the range between the 5% and 95% Bayesian credibility bounds of the 100 year floods by 45% and 61% for the Rhine and Werra case studies, respectively. The strengths and limitations of the framework are discussed relative to alternative (non‐fuzzy) methods. The fuzzy Bayesian inference framework provides a flexible methodology that fits the imprecise nature of linguistic information on historical floods as available in historical written documentation.

Droughts, Dry Spells and Low Water Levels in Medieval Hungary (and Croatia) I: The Great Droughts of 1362, 1474, 1479, 1494 and 1507

Abstract In the present paper five significant late medieval drought events, occurred in Hungary (4 cases) and Croatia (1 Dalmatian case), are discussed based on contemporary documentary evidence. Information on long-term lack of precipitation, severe annual (or multiannual) water shortage, extreme low water levels of major rivers or bad harvest and severe food shortage in 1362, 1474, 1479, 1494 and 1507, often accompanied or followed by locust invasions, were documented both in narratives, account books, charters and letters. Apart from causing food shortage or difficulties in transportation (e.g. of salt), these greatest known documented drought events of medieval Hungary were blamed for weakening the countrys military defence (e.g. low water levels) and providing good opportunities for Ottoman-Turkish attacks. These great drought events sometimes occurred one year later than those of the neighbouring areas in Central Europe - a fact that can be probably explained by the bi- or multi-annual nature of dry spells (e.g. in and around 1474, 1479, 1507) that does not necessarily fit the frame of a calendar year.

18th-Century Daily Measurements and Weather Observations in the Se-Carpathian Basin: A Preliminary Analysis of the Timişoara Series (1780-1803)

Abstract Covering a period of 23 years, the Timişoara (in historical Banat region; today SW-Romania) series is the earliest known long-term 18th-century daily measurement (temperature, pressure) and weather observation series (precipitation, sky coverage, meteorological extremes), preserved in the south-eastern lowlands of the Carpathian Basin. Based on data derived from the original weather diary of the royal pharmacist Karl Joseph Klapka, in this paper the early instrumental measurement and daily observation series is presented referring to the temperature, pressure, precipitation conditions, cloudiness, wind, types of precipitation and extreme weather events that occurred in Timişoara in the period of 1780 -1803. The two daily temperature measurement series show very high (over r=0.95) correlations, while pressure series are also in good agreement with other known late 18th-century measurement series of the same period in the Carpathian Basin (Buda, Miskolc and Kežmarok). The Timişoara-series also contains important information concerning such weather extremes as the severe winter of 1784 or the unusual number of summer fog events in 1783 (presumably related to the Icelandic Lakagígar eruption), which are also reported in the present paper.