Andrea O'Neill

Downscaling wind and wavefields for 21st century coastal flood hazard projections in a region of complex terrain

While Global Climate Models (GCMs) provide useful projections of near-surface wind vectors into the 21st century, resolution is not sufficient enough for use in regional wave modeling. Statistically-downscaled GCM projections from Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogues (MACA) provide daily averaged near-surface winds at an appropriate spatial resolution for wave modeling within the orographically-complex region of San Francisco Bay, but greater resolution in time is needed to capture the peak of storm events. Short-duration high wind speeds, on the order of hours are usually excluded in statistically-downscaled climate models, and are of key importance in wave and subsequent coastal flood modeling. Here, we present a temporal downscaling approach, similar to constructed analogues, for near-surface winds suitable for use in local wave models, and evaluate changes in wind and wave conditions for the 21st century. Reconstructed hindcast winds (1975-2004) recreate important extreme wind values within San Francisco Bay. A computationally-efficient method for simulating wave heights over long time periods was used to screen for extreme events. Wave hindcasts show resultant maximum wave heights of 2.2 m possible within the Bay. Changes in extreme over-water wind speeds suggest contrasting trends within the different regions of San Francisco Bay, but twenty-first century projections show little change in the overall magnitude of extreme winds and locally-generated waves.

CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 2 storm-hazard projections

Maximum depth of flooding surface (in cm) in the region landward of the present day shoreline that is inundated for the storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario indicated. Note: Duration datasets may have occasional gaps in open-coast sections. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. CoSMoS v3.0 for Southern California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings. Model details and data sources are outlined in CoSMoS_3.0_Phase_2_Southern_California_Bight:_Summary_of_data_and_methods (available at https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/file/get/57f1d4f3e4b0bc0bebfee139?name=CoSMoS_SoCalv3_Phase2_summary_of_methods.pdf). Phase 2 data for Southern California include flood-hazard information for the coast from the border of Mexico to Pt. Conception. Several changes from Phase 1 projections are reflected in many areas; please read the Summary of methods and inspect output carefully. Data are complete for the information presented.Model-derived significant wave height (in meters) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. CoSMoS v3.0 for Southern California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings. Model details and data sources are outlined in CoSMoS_3.0_Phase_2_Southern_California_Bight:_Summary_of_data_and_methods (available at https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/file/get/57f1d4f3e4b0bc0bebfee139?name=CoSMoS_SoCalv3_Phase2_summary_of_methods.pdf). Phase 2 data for Southern California include flood-hazard information for the coast from the border of Mexico to Pt. Conception. Several changes from Phase 1 projections are reflected in many areas; please read the Summary of methods and inspect output carefully. Data are complete for the information presented.Maximum depth of flooding surface (in cm) in the region landward of the present day shoreline that is inundated for the storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario indicated. Note: Duration datasets may have occasional gaps in open-coast sections. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. CoSMoS v3.0 for Southern California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings. Model details and data sources are outlined in CoSMoS_3.0_Phase_2_Southern_California_Bight:_Summary_of_data_and_methods (available at https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/file/get/57f1d4f3e4b0bc0bebfee139?name=CoSMoS_SoCalv3_Phase2_summary_of_methods.pdf). Phase 2 data for Southern California include flood-hazard information for the coast from the border of Mexico to Pt. Conception to include the Channel Islands. Please read the Summary of Methods and inspect output carefully. Data are complete for the information presented.

CoSMoS v3.0 Phase 2 flood-hazard projections: San Diego County

Maximum depth of flooding surface (in cm) in the region landward of the present day shoreline that is inundated for the storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario indicated. Note: Duration datasets may have occasional gaps in open-coast sections. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. CoSMoS v3.0 for Southern California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings. Model details and data sources are outlined in CoSMoS_3.0_Phase_2_Southern_California_Bight:_Summary_of_data_and_methods (available at https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/file/get/57f1d4f3e4b0bc0bebfee139?name=CoSMoS_SoCalv3_Phase2_summary_of_methods.pdf). Phase 2 data for Southern California include flood-hazard information for the coast from the border of Mexico to Pt. Conception. Several changes from Phase 1 projections are reflected in many areas; please read the Summary of methods and inspect output carefully. Data are complete for the information presented.Model-derived significant wave height (in meters) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. CoSMoS v3.0 for Southern California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings. Model details and data sources are outlined in CoSMoS_3.0_Phase_2_Southern_California_Bight:_Summary_of_data_and_methods (available at https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/file/get/57f1d4f3e4b0bc0bebfee139?name=CoSMoS_SoCalv3_Phase2_summary_of_methods.pdf). Phase 2 data for Southern California include flood-hazard information for the coast from the border of Mexico to Pt. Conception. Several changes from Phase 1 projections are reflected in many areas; please read the Summary of methods and inspect output carefully. Data are complete for the information presented.Maximum depth of flooding surface (in cm) in the region landward of the present day shoreline that is inundated for the storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario indicated. Note: Duration datasets may have occasional gaps in open-coast sections. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. CoSMoS v3.0 for Southern California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings. Model details and data sources are outlined in CoSMoS_3.0_Phase_2_Southern_California_Bight:_Summary_of_data_and_methods (available at https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/file/get/57f1d4f3e4b0bc0bebfee139?name=CoSMoS_SoCalv3_Phase2_summary_of_methods.pdf). Phase 2 data for Southern California include flood-hazard information for the coast from the border of Mexico to Pt. Conception to include the Channel Islands. Please read the Summary of Methods and inspect output carefully. Data are complete for the information presented.

CoSMoS Southern California v3.0 Phase 1 (100-year storm) storm hazard projections

Maximum depth of flooding surface (in cm) in the region landward of the present day shoreline that is inundated for the storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario indicated. Note: Duration datasets may have occasional gaps in open-coast sections. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. CoSMoS v3.0 for Southern California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings. Model details and data sources are outlined in CoSMoS_3.0_Phase_2_Southern_California_Bight:_Summary_of_data_and_methods (available at https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/file/get/57f1d4f3e4b0bc0bebfee139?name=CoSMoS_SoCalv3_Phase2_summary_of_methods.pdf). Phase 2 data for Southern California include flood-hazard information for the coast from the border of Mexico to Pt. Conception. Several changes from Phase 1 projections are reflected in many areas; please read the Summary of methods and inspect output carefully. Data are complete for the information presented.Model-derived significant wave height (in meters) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. CoSMoS v3.0 for Southern California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings. Model details and data sources are outlined in CoSMoS_3.0_Phase_2_Southern_California_Bight:_Summary_of_data_and_methods (available at https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/file/get/57f1d4f3e4b0bc0bebfee139?name=CoSMoS_SoCalv3_Phase2_summary_of_methods.pdf). Phase 2 data for Southern California include flood-hazard information for the coast from the border of Mexico to Pt. Conception. Several changes from Phase 1 projections are reflected in many areas; please read the Summary of methods and inspect output carefully. Data are complete for the information presented.Maximum depth of flooding surface (in cm) in the region landward of the present day shoreline that is inundated for the storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario indicated. Note: Duration datasets may have occasional gaps in open-coast sections. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. CoSMoS v3.0 for Southern California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings. Model details and data sources are outlined in CoSMoS_3.0_Phase_2_Southern_California_Bight:_Summary_of_data_and_methods (available at https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/file/get/57f1d4f3e4b0bc0bebfee139?name=CoSMoS_SoCalv3_Phase2_summary_of_methods.pdf). Phase 2 data for Southern California include flood-hazard information for the coast from the border of Mexico to Pt. Conception to include the Channel Islands. Please read the Summary of Methods and inspect output carefully. Data are complete for the information presented.

Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)

Maximum depth of flooding surface (in cm) in the region landward of the present day shoreline that is inundated for the storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario indicated. Note: Duration datasets may have occasional gaps in open-coast sections. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. CoSMoS v3.0 for Southern California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings. Model details and data sources are outlined in CoSMoS_3.0_Phase_2_Southern_California_Bight:_Summary_of_data_and_methods (available at https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/file/get/57f1d4f3e4b0bc0bebfee139?name=CoSMoS_SoCalv3_Phase2_summary_of_methods.pdf). Phase 2 data for Southern California include flood-hazard information for the coast from the border of Mexico to Pt. Conception. Several changes from Phase 1 projections are reflected in many areas; please read the Summary of methods and inspect output carefully. Data are complete for the information presented.Model-derived significant wave height (in meters) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. CoSMoS v3.0 for Southern California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings. Model details and data sources are outlined in CoSMoS_3.0_Phase_2_Southern_California_Bight:_Summary_of_data_and_methods (available at https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/file/get/57f1d4f3e4b0bc0bebfee139?name=CoSMoS_SoCalv3_Phase2_summary_of_methods.pdf). Phase 2 data for Southern California include flood-hazard information for the coast from the border of Mexico to Pt. Conception. Several changes from Phase 1 projections are reflected in many areas; please read the Summary of methods and inspect output carefully. Data are complete for the information presented.Maximum depth of flooding surface (in cm) in the region landward of the present day shoreline that is inundated for the storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario indicated. Note: Duration datasets may have occasional gaps in open-coast sections. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. CoSMoS v3.0 for Southern California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings. Model details and data sources are outlined in CoSMoS_3.0_Phase_2_Southern_California_Bight:_Summary_of_data_and_methods (available at https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/file/get/57f1d4f3e4b0bc0bebfee139?name=CoSMoS_SoCalv3_Phase2_summary_of_methods.pdf). Phase 2 data for Southern California include flood-hazard information for the coast from the border of Mexico to Pt. Conception to include the Channel Islands. Please read the Summary of Methods and inspect output carefully. Data are complete for the information presented.

CoSMoS Southern California v3.0 Phase 1 (100-year storm) flood hazard projections: Los Angeles, San Diego and Orange counties

Maximum depth of flooding surface (in cm) in the region landward of the present day shoreline that is inundated for the storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario indicated. Note: Duration datasets may have occasional gaps in open-coast sections. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. CoSMoS v3.0 for Southern California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings. Model details and data sources are outlined in CoSMoS_3.0_Phase_2_Southern_California_Bight:_Summary_of_data_and_methods (available at https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/file/get/57f1d4f3e4b0bc0bebfee139?name=CoSMoS_SoCalv3_Phase2_summary_of_methods.pdf). Phase 2 data for Southern California include flood-hazard information for the coast from the border of Mexico to Pt. Conception. Several changes from Phase 1 projections are reflected in many areas; please read the Summary of methods and inspect output carefully. Data are complete for the information presented.Model-derived significant wave height (in meters) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. CoSMoS v3.0 for Southern California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings. Model details and data sources are outlined in CoSMoS_3.0_Phase_2_Southern_California_Bight:_Summary_of_data_and_methods (available at https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/file/get/57f1d4f3e4b0bc0bebfee139?name=CoSMoS_SoCalv3_Phase2_summary_of_methods.pdf). Phase 2 data for Southern California include flood-hazard information for the coast from the border of Mexico to Pt. Conception. Several changes from Phase 1 projections are reflected in many areas; please read the Summary of methods and inspect output carefully. Data are complete for the information presented.Maximum depth of flooding surface (in cm) in the region landward of the present day shoreline that is inundated for the storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario indicated. Note: Duration datasets may have occasional gaps in open-coast sections. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. CoSMoS v3.0 for Southern California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings. Model details and data sources are outlined in CoSMoS_3.0_Phase_2_Southern_California_Bight:_Summary_of_data_and_methods (available at https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/file/get/57f1d4f3e4b0bc0bebfee139?name=CoSMoS_SoCalv3_Phase2_summary_of_methods.pdf). Phase 2 data for Southern California include flood-hazard information for the coast from the border of Mexico to Pt. Conception to include the Channel Islands. Please read the Summary of Methods and inspect output carefully. Data are complete for the information presented.