Andreas Andersen

Non-specific effects of standard measles vaccine at 4.5 and 9 months of age on childhood mortality: randomised controlled trial

Objective To examine in a randomised trial whether a 25% difference in mortality exists between 4.5 months and 3 years of age for children given two standard doses of Edmonston-Zagreb measles vaccines at 4.5 and 9 months of age compared with those given one dose of measles vaccine at 9 months of age (current policy). Design Randomised controlled trial. Setting The Bandim Health Project, Guinea-Bissau, which maintains a health and demographic surveillance system in an urban area. Participants 6648 children aged 4.5 months of age who had received three doses of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccine at least four weeks before enrolment. A large proportion of the children (80%) had previously taken part in randomised trials of neonatal vitamin A supplementation. Intervention Children were randomised to receive Edmonston-Zagreb measles vaccine at 4.5 and 9 months of age (group A), no vaccine at 4.5 months and Edmonston-Zagreb measles vaccine at 9 months of age (group B), or no vaccine at 4.5 months and Schwarz measles vaccine at 9 months of age (group C). Main outcome measure Mortality rate ratio between 4.5 and 36 months of age for group A compared with groups B and C. Secondary outcomes tested the hypothesis that the beneficial effect was stronger in the 4.5 to 9 months age group, in girls, and in the dry season, but the study was not powered to test whether effects differed significantly between subgroups. Results In the intention to treat analysis of mortality between 4.5 and 36 months of age the mortality rate ratio of children who received two doses of Edmonston-Zagreb vaccine at 4.5 and 9 months of age compared with those who received a single dose of Edmonston-Zagreb vaccine or Schwarz vaccine at 9 months of age was 0.78 (95% confidence interval 0.59 to 1.05). In the analyses of secondary outcomes, the intention to treat mortality rate ratio was 0.67 (0.38 to 1.19) between 4.5 and 9 months and 0.83 (0.83 to 1.16) between 9 and 36 months of age. The effect on mortality between 4.5 and 36 months of age was significant for girls (intention to treat mortality rate ratio 0.64 (0.42 to 0.98)), although this was not significantly different from the effect in boys (0.95 (0.64 to 1.42)) (interaction test, P=0.18). The effect did not differ between the dry season and the rainy season. As neonatal vitamin A supplementation is not WHO policy, the analyses were done separately for the 3402 children who did not receive neonatal vitamin A. In these children, the two dose Edmonston-Zagreb measles vaccine schedule was associated with a significantly lower mortality between 4.5 and 36 months of age (intention to treat mortality rate ratio 0.59 (0.39 to 0.89)). The effect was again significant for girls but not statistically significant from the effect in boys. When measles cases were censored, the intention to treat mortality rate ratio was 0.65 (0.43 to 0.99). Conclusions Although the overall effect did not reach statistical significance, the results may indicate that a two dose schedule with Edmonston-Zagreb measles vaccine given at 4.5 and 9 months of age has beneficial non-specific effects on children’s survival, particularly for girls and for children who have not received neonatal vitamin A. This should be tested in future studies in different locations. Trial registration Clinical trials NCT00168558.

Changes in prevalence and incidence of HIV-1, HIV-2 and dual infections in urban areas of Bissau, Guinea-Bissau: is HIV-2 disappearing?

Objectives:To assess the changes in HIV prevalence and incidence between 1996 and 2006 in urban areas of Bissau. Design:A cross-sectional survey of 384 randomly selected houses within a community-based follow-up study of HIV-1 and HIV-2. Methods:A total of 3242 individuals aged at least 15 years were eligible for inclusion. Participants were interviewed about behavioral and socio-economic factors and had a blood sample drawn. A total of 2548 individuals were tested for antibodies to HIV-1 and HIV-2, of whom 649 had taken part in a similar survey in 1996. Results:With 0.5% HIV dual reactions included, the overall HIV-1 prevalence was 4.6% (118 out of 2548) and the HIV-2 prevalence was 4.4% (112 out of 2548). The prevalence of HIV-1 increased more for women than men especially in the 25–34-year age group. HIV-2 prevalence decreased below 45 years of age but not for individuals more than 45 years old. The incidence rate between 1996 and 2006 was 0.5 per 100 person-years for HIV-1 and 0.24 per 100 person-years for HIV-2. Compared with a previous period from 1987 to 1996, the incidence of HIV-2 is declining whereas no significant increase in the incidence of HIV-1 was observed. Conclusions:The present study shows an increasing prevalence of HIV-1 and a decreasing prevalence of HIV-2 in Guinea-Bissau. HIV is generally a bigger problem for women. Despite the general decline in prevalence, HIV-2 may continue as an infection in older people, especially women.

Heterologous Immunological Effects of Early BCG Vaccination in Low-Birth-Weight Infants in Guinea-Bissau: A Randomized-controlled Trial

Background. Bacillus Calmette–Guérin (BCG) seems to have beneficial nonspecific effects; early BCG vaccination of low-birth-weight (LBW) newborns reduces neonatal mortality by >40% due to prevention of primarily septicemia and pneumonia. Methods. Within a randomized trial in LBW infants in Guinea-Bissau of early BCG vs the usual postponed BCG, a subgroup was bled 4 weeks after randomization. Levels of interleukin (IL)-1β, IL-5, IL-6, IL-10, IL-17, interferon (IFN)-γ and tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α were measured from whole-blood assays stimulated with innate agonists to Toll-like receptor (TLR)-2, -4 or -7/8, or purified protein derivative (PPD). Results. Among 467 infants, BCG significantly increased the in vitro cytokine responses to purified protein derivative of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (PPD), as expected. BCG was also associated with increased responses to heterologous innate stimulation, particularly of the cytokines IL-1β, IL-6, TNF-α, and IFN-γ. Conclusion. Four weeks after immunization, BCG-vaccinated infants have a significantly increased production of cytokines upon heterologous challenge, particularly T helper cell type 1 polarizing and typically monocyte-derived pro-inflammatory cytokines. BCG may accelerate the development of the neonatal immune system, mediating comprehensive protection against infections and mortality.

The Effect of Oral Polio Vaccine at Birth on Infant Mortality: A Randomized Trial

Neonates were randomized to oral polio vaccine (OPV) and followed for mortality. Among those enrolled within the first 2 days, OPV was associated with a 42% (10%–62%) reduction in infant infectious disease mortality. OPV at birth may provide nonspecific protection against infections.

Measles Vaccination in the Presence or Absence of Maternal Measles Antibody: Impact on Child Survival

In 2-dose trials, early measles vaccination at 4–6 months in presence of maternal measles antibody was associated with significantly better survival to age 5 years than vaccination in absence of measles antibody. Confounding factors did not explain the effect.

Hospitalization for Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection and Invasive Pneumococcal Disease in Danish Children Aged <2 Years: A Population-Based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND Previous population-based studies have reported a temporal association between respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). We examined this association at an individual level in the Danish population. METHODS Using registry information about hospitalization for RSV infection and IPD in Denmark, we conducted a prospective, population-based cohort study and examined the associations between hospitalization for RSV infection and IPD. RESULTS In our cohort, no persons aged > or =2 years experienced IPD within 30 days after hospitalization for RSV infection. Among children aged <2 years, children who were hospitalized for RSV infection had a significantly increased risk of IPD during the 30 days after hospitalization, compared with those who were not hospitalized for RSV infection (adjusted rate ratio, 7.1; 95% confidence interval, 3.6-14.3). Likewise, hospitalization for a non-RSV respiratory infection increased the risk of IPD during the 30 days after hospitalization (adjusted rate ratio, 4.5; 95% confidence interval, 2.0-10.0). IPD did not increase the risk of hospitalization for RSV infection among children aged <2 years. CONCLUSIONS Both recent hospitalization for RSV infection and recent hospitalization for non-RSV respiratory infection increased the risk of IPD among Danish children aged <2 years.

A Randomized Trial of a Standard Dose of Edmonston-Zagreb Measles Vaccine Given at 4.5 Months of Age: Effect on Total Hospital Admissions

Observational studies and trials from low-income countries indicate that measles vaccine has beneficial nonspecific effects, protecting against non–measles-related mortality. It is not known whether measles vaccine protects against hospital admissions. Between 2003 and 2007, 6417 children who had received the third dose of diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis vaccine were randomly assigned to receive measles vaccine at 4.5 months or no measles vaccine; all children were offered measles vaccine at 9 months of age. Using hospital admission data from the national pediatric ward in Bissau, Guinea-Bissau, we compared admission rates between enrollment and the 9-month vaccination in Cox models, providing admission hazard rate ratios (HRRs) for measles vaccine versus no measles vaccine. All analyses were conducted stratified by sex and reception of neonatal vitamin A supplementation (NVAS). Before enrollment the 2 groups had similar admission rates. Following enrollment, the measles vaccine group had an admission HRR of 0.70 (95% confidence interval [CI], .52–.95), with a ratio of 0.53 (95% CI, .32–.86) for girls and 0.86 (95% CI, .58–1.26) for boys. For children who had not received NVAS, the admission HRR was 0.53 (95% CI, .34–.84), with an effect of 0.30 (95% CI, .13–.70) for girls and 0.73 (95% CI, .42–1.28) for boys (P = .08, interaction test). The reduction in admissions was separately significant for measles infection (admission HRR, 0 [95% CI, 0–.24]) and respiratory infections (admission HRR, 0.37 [95% CI, .16–.89]). Early measles vaccine may have major benefits for infant morbidity patterns and healthcare costs. Clinical trials registration NCT00168558.

The Inuit cancer pattern—The influence of migration

The Inuit cancer pattern is characterized by high frequencies of Epstein–Barr Virus (EBV)‐associated carcinomas of the nasopharynx and salivary glands. The reasons are unknown, but genetic and environmental factors are believed to be involved. Using data from the well‐defined Inuit population in Greenland we investigated whether migration to Denmark influenced their risk of cancer. Greenland is part of the Danish Kingdom, and population‐based registries cover both countries. Using rates for Denmark as reference, sex‐specific standardized incidence ratios (SIR) were calculated for Inuit who never lived in Denmark and for those who at least once were registered with a Danish address. During 1973–2003, we observed 3,567 cancers in a cohort of 77,888 persons. Of these, 862 among 26,214 Inuit ever living in Denmark, and 2,705 among 51,674 nonmigrating Inuit. High SIRs for cancers of the nasopharynx [31.7 (CI 22.0‐45.5)] and salivary glands [3.1 (CI 1.4–6.9)] observed among Inuit migrating to Denmark were comparable to those observed among Inuit never living in Denmark. Significant higher risk of cancer of the bladder, breast, prostate gland, skin, brain and stomach was observed among Inuit following migration to Denmark. The SIR was not generally influenced by duration of stay. The high risk of carcinoma of the nasopharynx and salivary glands observed in Inuit populations is maintained after migration to a low incidence area. This indicates that genetic factors or environmental factors acting early in life are etiologically important for these cancers.

Assessment of simple risk markers for early mortality among HIV-infected patients in Guinea-Bissau: a cohort study

Background Decisions about when to start an antiretroviral therapy (ART) are normally based on CD4 cell counts and viral load (VL). However, these measurements require equipment beyond the capacity of most laboratories in low-income and middle-income settings. Thus, there is an urgent need to identify and test simple markers to guide the optimal time for starting and for monitoring the effect of ART in developing countries. Objectives (1) To evaluate anthropometric measurements and measurement of plasma-soluble form of the urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) levels as potential risk factors for early mortality among HIV-infected patients; (2) to assess whether these markers could help identify patients to whom ART should be prioritised and (3) to determine if these markers may add information to CD4 cell count when VL is not available. Design An observational study. Setting The largest ART centre in Bissau, Guinea-Bissau. Participants 1083 ART-naïve HIV-infected patients. Outcome measures Associations between baseline anthropometric measurements, CD4 cell counts, plasma suPAR levels and survival were examined using Cox proportional hazards models. Results Low body mass index (BMI≤18.5 kg/m2), low mid-upper-arm-circumference (MUAC≤250 mm), low CD4 cell count (≤350 cells/μl) and high suPAR plasma levels (>5.3 ng/ml) were independent predictors of death. Furthermore, mortality among patients with low CD4 cell count, low MUAC or low BMI was concentrated in the highest suPAR quartile. Conclusions Irrespective of ART initiation and baseline CD4 count, MUAC and suPAR plasma levels were independent predictors of early mortality in this urban cohort. These markers could be useful in identifying patients at the highest risk of short-term mortality and may aid triage for ART when CD4 cell count is not available or when there is shortness of antiretroviral drugs.

Impact of tuberculosis exposure at home on mortality in children under 5 years of age in Guinea-Bissau

Objective To assess mortality related to exposure to tuberculosis (TB) at home among children in urban areas of Guinea-Bissau. Methods In four suburban areas included in the demographic surveillance system of the Bandim Health Project in Bissau, the mortality of children aged <5 years living with an adult with TB was compared with the mortality of children in the general population. Results Children <5 years of age exposed to an adult with intrathoracic TB had 66% higher mortality than unexposed children (HR 1.66, 95% CI 1.2 to 2.3). The risk was higher for children living in the same family as a TB case (HR 2.15, 95% CI 1.3 to 3.7) than for children living in the same house but not belonging to the same family as the TB case (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.0 to 2.2). For children whose mother had TB, mortality was increased eightfold (HR 7.82, 95% CI 2.1 to 30). The risk of death was particularly increased from 6 months following exposure (HR 2.16, 95% CI 1.5 to 3.2) and the highest rate of excess mortality was found in children aged 3–4 years. Excess mortality was highest among children with close contact with an adult with sputum-positive pulmonary TB (HR 1.90, 95% CI 1.1 to 3.2), but contact with a sputum-negative case was also associated with increased mortality (HR 1.55, 95% CI 1.0 to 2.3). Adjusting for potential confounding factors did not change these results. The mortality among children living in the same houses 3 years earlier was not increased (HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.6 to 1.3). Conclusion Intimate family contact with a TB case represents a significant risk factor for child mortality in a low-income country.