Andreas Brink

Determination of tropical deforestation rates and related carbon losses from 1990 to 2010

We estimate changes in forest cover (deforestation and forest regrowth) in the tropics for the two last decades (1990–2000 and 2000–2010) based on a sample of 4000 units of 10 ×10 km size. Forest cover is interpreted from satellite imagery at 30 × 30 m resolution. Forest cover changes are then combined with pan-tropical biomass maps to estimate carbon losses. We show that there was a gross loss of tropical forests of 8.0 million ha yr−1 in the 1990s and 7.6 million ha yr−1 in the 2000s (0.49% annual rate), with no statistically significant difference. Humid forests account for 64% of the total forest cover in 2010 and 54% of the net forest loss during second study decade. Losses of forest cover and Other Wooded Land (OWL) cover result in estimates of carbon losses which are similar for 1990s and 2000s at 887 MtC yr−1 (range: 646–1238) and 880 MtC yr−1 (range: 602–1237) respectively, with humid regions contributing two-thirds. The estimates of forest area changes have small statistical standard errors due to large sample size. We also reduce uncertainties of previous estimates of carbon losses and removals. Our estimates of forest area change are significantly lower as compared to national survey data. We reconcile recent low estimates of carbon emissions from tropical deforestation for early 2000s and show that carbon loss rates did not change between the two last decades. Carbon losses from deforestation represent circa 10% of Carbon emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production during the last decade (2000–2010). Our estimates of annual removals of carbon from forest regrowth at 115 MtC yr−1 (range: 61–168) and 97 MtC yr−1 (53–141) for the 1990s and 2000s respectively are five to fifteen times lower than earlier published estimates.

State and evolution of the African rainforests between 1990 and 2010.

This paper presents a map of Africas rainforests for 2005. Derived from moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer data at a spatial resolution of 250 m and with an overall accuracy of 84%, this map provides new levels of spatial and thematic detail. The map is accompanied by measurements of deforestation between 1990, 2000 and 2010 for West Africa, Central Africa and Madagascar derived from a systematic sample of Landsat images—imagery from equivalent platforms is used to fill gaps in the Landsat record. Net deforestation is estimated at 0.28% yr−1 for the period 1990–2000 and 0.14% yr−1 for the period 2000–2010. West Africa and Madagascar exhibit a much higher deforestation rate than the Congo Basin, for example, three times higher for West Africa and nine times higher for Madagascar. Analysis of variance over the Congo Basin is then used to show that expanding agriculture and increasing fuelwood demands are key drivers of deforestation in the region, whereas well-controlled timber exploitation programmes have little or no direct influence on forest-cover reduction at present. Rural and urban population concentrations and fluxes are also identified as strong underlying causes of deforestation in this study.

Continental estimates of forest cover and forest cover changes in the dry ecosystems of Africa between 1990 and 2000

Aim This study provides regional estimates of forest cover in dry African ecoregions and the changes in forest cover that occurred there between 1990 and 2000, using a systematic sample of medium-resolution satellite imagery which was processed consistently across the continent. Location The study area corresponds to the dry forests and woodlands of Africa between the humid forests and the semi-arid regions. This area covers the Sudanian and Zambezian ecoregions. Methods A systematic sample of 1600 Landsat satellite imagery subsets, each 20 km × 20 km in size, were analysed for two reference years: 1990 and 2000. At each sample site and for both years, dense tree cover, open tree cover, other wooded land and other vegetation cover were identified from the analysis of satellite imagery, which comprised multidate segmentation and automatic classification steps followed by visual control by national forestry experts. Results Land cover and land-cover changes were estimated at continental and ecoregion scales and compared with existing pan-continental, regional and local studies. The overall accuracy of our land-cover maps was estimated at 87%. Between 1990 and 2000, 3.3 million hectares (Mha) of dense tree cover, 5.8 Mha of open tree cover and 8.9 Mha of other wooded land were lost, with a further 3.9 Mha degraded from dense to open tree cover. These results are substantially lower than the 34 Mha of forest loss reported in the FAOs 2010 Global Forest Resources Assessment for the same period and area. Main conclusions Our method generates the first consistent and robust estimates of forest cover and change in dry Africa with known statistical precision at continental and ecoregion scales. These results reduce the uncertainty regarding vegetation cover and its dynamics in these previously poorly studied ecosystems and provide crucial information for both science and environmental policies.

Land Cover Change Monitoring Using Landsat MSS/TM Satellite Image Data over West Africa between 1975 and 1990

Monitoring land cover changes from the 1970s in West Africa is important for assessing the dynamics between land cover types and understanding the anthropogenic impact during this period. Given the lack of historical land cover maps over such a large area, Landsat data is a reliable and consistent source of information on land cover dynamics from the 1970s. This study examines land cover changes occurring between 1975 and 1990 in West Africa using a systematic sample of satellite imagery. The primary data sources for the land cover classification were Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS) for 1975 and Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) for the 1990 period. Dedicated selection of the appropriate image data for land cover change monitoring was performed for the year 1975. Based on this selected dataset, the land cover analysis is based on a systematic sample of 220 suitable Landsat image extracts (out of 246) of 20 km × 20 km at each one degree latitude/longitude intersection. Object-based classification, originally dedicated for Landsat TM land cover change monitoring and adapted for MSS, was used to produce land cover change information for four different land cover classes: dense tree cover, tree cover mosaic, other wooded land and other vegetation cover. Our results reveal that in 1975 about 6% of West Africa was covered by dense tree cover complemented with 12% of tree cover mosaic. Almost half of the area was covered by other wooded land and the remaining 32% was represented by other vegetation cover. Over the 1975–1990 period, the net annual change rate of dense tree cover was estimated at −0.95%, at −0.37% for the other wooded land and very low for tree cover mosaic (−0.05%). On the other side, other vegetation cover increased annually by 0.70%, most probably due to the expansion of agricultural areas. This study demonstrates the potential of Landsat MSS and TM data for large scale land cover change assessment in West Africa and highlights the importance of consistent and systematic data processing methods with targeted image acquisition procedures for long-term monitoring.

Anthropogenic pressure in East Africa – monitoring 20 years of land cover changes by means of medium resolution satellite data

The East Africa IGAD (Intergovernmental Authority on Development in Eastern Africa) region with its great variety of ecological regions experienced major changes during the last decades. This study assesses and quantifies the land cover dynamics in the region by applying a systematic sampling of medium resolution Landsat and DMC Deimos imagery. 445 samples covering about 3% of the study area taken as a box of 20 km × 20 km around each 1 degree latitude and longitude intersects are processed and analyzed. Statistical estimates of land cover change are produced by means of an automatic object-based classification in seven broad classes for the years 1990–2000 and 2000–2010. Figures of change for the East Africa IGAD region are presented and land cover change processes such as loss of natural vegetation and increase of agriculture areas are analyzed. Results highlight the geographical distribution of land cover dynamics and show a 28% increase in agriculture area over the analyzed 20-year time frame. The yearly agriculture area increase rate is around 1.4% for both assessed decades, however a strong increase in yearly deforestation rate – from 0.2% in the first period to 0.4% in the second period – has been observed. These figures are discussed within the context of the drivers of changes and the resulting impact to the natural ecosystem.

Protection Reduces Loss of Natural Land-Cover at Sites of Conservation Importance across Africa

There is an emerging consensus that protected areas are key in reducing adverse land-cover change, but their efficacy remains difficult to quantify. Many previous assessments of protected area effectiveness have compared changes between sets of protected and unprotected sites that differ systematically in other potentially confounding respects (e.g. altitude, accessibility), have considered only forest loss or changes at single sites, or have analysed changes derived from land-cover data of low spatial resolution. We assessed the effectiveness of protection in reducing land-cover change in Important Bird Areas (IBAs) across Africa using a dedicated visual interpretation of higher resolution satellite imagery. We compared rates of change in natural land-cover over a c. 20-year period from around 1990 at a large number of points across 45 protected IBAs to those from 48 unprotected IBAs. A matching algorithm was used to select sample points to control for potentially confounding differences between protected and unprotected IBAs. The rate of loss of natural land-cover at sample points within protected IBAs was just 42% of that at matched points in unprotected IBAs. Conversion was especially marked in forests, but protection reduced rates of forest loss by a similar relative amount. Rates of conversion increased from the centre to the edges of both protected and unprotected IBAs, but rates of loss in 20-km buffer zones surrounding protected IBAs and unprotected IBAs were similar, with no evidence of displacement of conversion from within protected areas to their immediate surrounds (leakage).

The potential use of high-resolution Landsat satellite data for detecting land-cover change in the Greater Horn of Africa

To assess the potential of high-resolution satellite data for land-cover monitoring in the Greater Horn of Africa, we used a regular sampling grid of 170 sites (each measuring 20 km × 20 km) located at the confluence of the latitudes and meridians across the study area. For each of these sites, Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM) satellite data were acquired for the years 1990 and 2000. A dot grid visual interpretation was used to assess land-cover change between the two dates in each of the sites. With only two acquisition dates, we found that these data were insufficient for accurately determining land-cover change and degradation in arid areas where non-woody biomass dominates. We were nevertheless able to detect land-cover modifications in three areas: increases in agriculture on the coastal plain near Mogadishu, increases in agriculture at the western fringes of our study area where there is higher rainfall, and finally a reduction in woodlands and shrublands in areas close to refugee camps on the Somali–Kenya border.

Remote Sensing of Land-Cover and Land-Use Dynamics

Land is changing at a rate never achieved before. This evolution needs to be documented by robust and repeatable figures. Earth Observation tools play a key-role in the production of regular estimates of the landscape changes. In this chapter, we discuss the utility of Remote Sensing data for producing information on land-cover and on land-cover/land-use changes. Basic guidelines in terms of legend, data acquisition, classification techniques and validation are explained. For illustrating global land-cover projects, the recent Global Land Cover 2000 project is described.

Advancing terrestrial conservation through remote sensing

Conservationists recognise that remote sensing can make a substantial contribution to their effort to monitor the environment to better understand and reduce the impact of anthropogenic activities. However, often it is perceived that the needs of the terrestrial conservation community are not being met by the remote sensing community. The first step to bridging this gap is the improved communication between both communities, and the compilation of a list of needs and best practises for conservation applications. Here we review five recent workshops that help to answer the broad question “What conservationists need and want from remote sensing”. We identify recurring requests, and consider potential ways forward for the conservation and remote sensing communities to start to deliver data or tools to address these needs.

Indicators for Assessing Habitat Values and Pressures for Protected Areas—An Integrated Habitat and Land Cover Change Approach for the Udzungwa Mountains National Park in Tanzania

Assessing the status and monitoring the trends of land cover dynamics in and around protected areas is of utmost importance for park managers and decision makers. Moreover, to support the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD)’s Strategic Action Plan including the Aichi Biodiversity Targets, such efforts are necessary to set a framework to reach the agreed national, regional or global targets. The integration of land use/cover change (LULCC) data with information on habitats and population density provides the means to assess potential degradation and disturbance resulting from anthropogenic activities such as agriculture and urban area expansion. This study assesses the LULCC over a 20 year (1990–2000–2010) period using freely available Landsat imagery and a dedicated method and toolbox for the Udzungwa Mountains National Park (UMNP) and its surroundings (20 km buffer) in Tanzania. Habitat data gathered from the Digital Observatory for Protected Areas (DOPA)’s eHabitat+ Web service were used to perform ecological stratification of the study area and to develop similarity maps of the potential presence of comparable habitat types outside the protected area. Finally, integration of the habitat similarity maps with the LULCC data was applied in order to evaluate potential pressures on the different habitats within the national park and on the linking corridors between UMNP and other protected areas in the context of wildlife movement and migration. The results show that the UMNP has not suffered from relevant human activities during the study period. The natural vegetation area has remained stable around 1780 km2. In the surrounding 20 km buffer area and the connecting corridors, however, the anthropogenic impact has been strong. Artificially built up areas increased by 14.24% over the last 20 years and the agriculture area increased from 11% in 1990 to 30% in the year 2010. The habitat functional types and the similarity maps confirmed the importance of the buffer zone and the connecting corridors for wildlife movements, while the similarity maps detected other potential corridors for wildlife.