Andreas Bublitz

An agent-based model of the German electricity market with short-time uncertainty factors

This paper proposes an agent-based model for the German wholesale electricity market that accounts for short-time uncertainty factors such as power plant outages or fluctuating renewable energy sources. The model is highly detailed using hourly values for the national demand and the feed-in from renewable energy sources as well as daily prices for carbon, coal, gas and oil. Each power plant in Germany with a capacity of more than 10 MW is considered in the model. Generation companies are represented by agents that submit bids into the market based on variable costs, start-up costs and minimal startup times of their generation capacities. In order to validate the model, a simulation is run which demonstrates that the model is well capable of replicating historical market results.

A model-based analysis of generation adequacy in interconnected electricity markets

In this paper, the development of an interconnected German and French electricity market until 2030 is analyzed by applying an agent-based simulation model for wholesale electricity markets. National day-ahead markets are modeled and coupled considering limited transmission capacities. The results show that coupling the German and French market areas is effectively contributing to balance extreme load situations. Furthermore, based on the endogenous investment planning, mainly new combined cycle gas turbine plants are installed in Germany and France. However, despite incentives for investors to install new generation capacity, the model results indicate that in the coming years few situations will occur in which the residual demand cannot be fully met. Given the static consideration of the hourly electricity demand, the exchange flows with other countries and hydroelectric plants with seasonally operated reservoirs in this paper, effects and interactions of these flexibility options on the electricity system need to be analyzed in more detail in future research.

Agent-Based Simulation of Interconnected Wholesale Electricity Markets: An Application to the German and French Market Area

In the context of wholesale electricity markets, agent-based models have shown to be an appealing approach. Given its ability to adequately model interrelated markets with its main players and considering detailed data, agent-based models have already provided valuable insights in related research questions, e.g. about adequate regulatory frameworks. In this paper, an agent-based model with an application to the German and French market area is presented. The model is able to analyze short-term as well as long-term effects in electricity markets. It simulates the hourly day-ahead market with limited interconnection capacities between the regarded market areas and determines the market outcome as well as the power plant dispatch. Yearly, each agent has the possibility to invest in new conventional capacities which e.g. allows assessing security of supply related questions in future years. Furthermore, the model can be used for participatory simulations where humans take the place of the models agents. In order to adapt to the ongoing changes in electricity markets, e.g. due to the rise of renewable energies and the integration of European electricity markets, the model is constantly developed further. Future extensions include amongst others the implementations of an intraday market as well as the integration of additional market areas.

An analysis of long-term impacts of demand response on investments in thermal power plants and generation adequacy

In liberalized energy markets, the issue of generation adequacy gains more and more in importance. Especially demand response is regarded as a crucial measure to handle supply and demand imbalances caused by inflexible renewable energy resources (RES) power production. However, the influence of demand response on wholesale electricity prices has not been sufficiently analyzed up to now.

An assessment of the newly proposed strategic reserve in Germany

In order to deal with the effects of the “Energiewende”, in November of 2014 the German government outlined the future regulatory framework of the national electricity market. Among the suggested new measurements is a strategic reserve that will be used in situations of peak demand when in the spot market clearing cannot be achieved. The size of this strategic reserve is expected to be around 5 GW, approximately 5% of the current peak load. In this paper, for the first time a detailed agent-based simulation model is used to analyze the effects of the implementation of a strategic reserve on electricity prices and investments. The results show that this instrument considerably improves the security of supply and its yearly costs range from 50 to 300 million Euros depending on market scarcity. However, in extreme situations, e.g., high penetration of fluctuating renewable energy sources and very volatile cash flows for investors, capacity markets might provide more efficient ways to ensure security of supply.

Zukunftsfähige Designoptionen für den deutschen Strommarkt : ein Vergleich des Energy-only-Marktes mit Kapazitätsmärkten

Die vorliegende Untersuchung setzt sich intensiv mit Weiterentwicklungen des deutschen Strommarktdesigns auf Basis fundierter wissenschaftlicher Erkenntnisse auseinander. Dazu wird mithilfe eines agentenbasierten Strommarktmodells zunachst die Funktionsfahigkeit des EOM mit und ohne Strategische Reserve untersucht. Anschliesend werden die Auswirkungen der Einfuhrung eines zentralen und dezentralen Kapazitatsmarkts analysiert.

Agent-Based Simulation of Interrelated Wholesale Electricity Markets

In recent years, the increasing electricity generation from fluctuating renewable energy sources has created quite different challenges faced by operators of conventional power plants in the short and long run. In the dynamic and complex environment of electricity markets, model-based analysis can provide valuable support for decision makers. In this paper, a detailed agent-based simulation model is presented. Agent-based simulation as one particular modeling approach is especially suitable for modeling wholesale electricity markets with market participants making individual decisions on interrelated markets. The presented model is able to simulate wholesale electricity markets including relevant interrelations with respect to time and point of delivery of electrical energy. Long-term developments can be analyzed using an integrated investment module for generation capacity by supply agents. Two recent model extensions, namely the implementation of a market coupling algorithm and of an intraday market, and their exemplary applications are illustrated in the paper.

Agentenbasierte Modellierung von Elektrizitätsmärkten

Bei Elektrizitätsmärkten handelt es sich um hochkomplexe Märkte. Zur Analyse von Elektrizitätsmärkten werden unterschiedliche Modelle eingesetzt, unter denen die agentenbasierten Simulationsmodelle einen vergleichsweise neuen Ansatz darstellen. In diesem Artikel wird zunächst auf grundlegende Aspekte des deutschen Elektrizitätsmarktes eingegangen und danach die Methodik der agentenbasierten Simulation vorgestellt. Abschließend werden exemplarische Ergebnisse eines agentenbasierten Modells für den deutschen Strommarkt präsentiert.