Andreas Charitou

Predicting corporate failure: empirical evidence for the UK

The main purpose of this study is to examine the incremental information content of operating cash flows in predicting financial distress and thus develop reliable failure prediction models for UK public industrial firms. Neural networks and logit methodology were employed to a dataset of fifty-one matched pairs of failed and non-failed UK public industrial firms over the period 1988–97. The final models are validated using an out-of-sample-period ex-ante test and the Lachenbruch jackknife procedure. The results indicate that a parsimonious model that includes three financial variables, a cash flow, a profitability and a financial leverage variable, yielded an overall correct classification accuracy of 83% one year prior to the failure. In summary, our models can be used to assist investors, creditors, managers, auditors and regulatory agencies in the UK to predict the probability of business failure.

The Effect of Earnings Permanence, Growth, and Firm Size on the Usefulness of Cash Flows and Earnings in Explaining Security Returns: Empirical Evidence for the UK

This paper examines the relative information content of earnings and cash flows for security returns using a methodology incorporating contextual factors which may affect earnings and cash flow response coefficients. For our UK dataset, we provide evidence that the earnings coefficient is related to earnings permanence, growth and firm size and that the cash flow coefficient may be related to growth. Although our results emphasise the value relevance of earnings, they also suggest that both contemporaneous and prior period cash flow are positively related to security returns and that market-to-book and market value of equity have predictive power for returns. Copyright Blackwell Publishers Ltd 2001.

The Value Relevance of Earnings and Cash Flows: Empirical Evidence for Japan

The Japanese equity market is one of the largest in the world. In recent years, fund managers worldwide have substantially increased their exposure to the Japanese capital markets. In spite of the Japanese capital markets rapid growth and its increasing importance in the international financial world, there has been limited empirical evidence linking security returns to earnings and cash flows. This study extends the growing empirical literature on the association of earnings and cash flows with security returns by using a Japanese dataset consisting of 6,662 firm-year observations for the period 1984-93. We hypothesize that (i) earnings and cash flows are jointly associated with stock returns, and (ii) the association between cash flows (earnings) and security returns increases (decreases) when earnings are transitory. This study provides empirical evidence (i) that cash flows (earnings) have information content beyond earnings (cash flows) in explaining security returns, and (ii) that cash flows (earnings) play a more (less) important role in the marketplace when earnings are transitory. Moreover, results show that the explanatory power of our Japanese models is similar to the evidence provided in prior US studies, indicating that Japanese investors utilize earnings and cash flows in their pricing of equities as their US counterparts.

Cross-Listing, Bonding Hypothesis and Corporate Governance

This paper examines the relationship between cross-listing and corporate governance for Canadian firms, that were cross-listed on US stock exchanges during the period 1997-2003. We find that cross-listed firms have more independent boards and audit committees after the listing relative to a non-cross-listed matched sample of firms and relative to the pre-listing period. Moreover, cross-listed firms experience changes in their ownership structure after the listing. Finally, we provide evidence that the sensitivity of the relation between cross-listed firm valuation with audit committee independence and ownership structure becomes more important after the listing. The results are robust after adjusting for various firm risk characteristics. Overall, the results are consistent with the literature on the bonding role of cross-listings on US stock exchanges. Copyright 2007 The Authors Journal compilation (c) 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

The Association Between Operating Cash Flows and Dividend Changes: An Empirical Investigation

The Association between earnings and dividend changes has been established since Lintners (1956) pioneering work. Subsequent research attempted to establish an association between operating cash flows and dividend changes, given earnings, without success (Simons, 1994). Recently, there has been increased attention in cash flow reporting. Regulatory bodies worldwide have stressed the significance of cash flow information in capital markets. Research on the association between cash flows and dividends has been limited, yielding inconclusive results. The purpose of this study is to re-evaluate and extend prior studies by examining the incremental ability of cash flows to explain dividend changes, given earnings. We argue that a positive relationship between cash flows and dividend changes should exist due to liquidity and accruals management considerations. The empirical evidence of this study supports that the dividend changes-cash flow relationship is significantly positive (a) when operating cash flows are low compared to earnings, and (b) when firm growth is moderate. Copyright Blackwell Publishers Ltd 1998.

Earnings, Cash Flows and Security Returns Over Long Return Intervals: Analysis and UK Evidence

The aim of this paper is to provide a fuller understanding of the process linking security returns and accounting data by focusing on the effect of long return intervals on the association between security returns and earnings and cash flow variables. First, we develop a theoretical basis for empirical analysis of the relationship between security returns and cash flow data over long return intervals. Second, we carry out empirical analysis of both the information content of cash flow variables and the incremental information content of accounting earnings and cash flows using UK data over the period 1985-92 for annual, two year and four year return intervals. Our results provide strong evidence of the valuation relevance of cash flow information for the dataset examined. Copyright Blackwell Publishers Ltd 1999.

The role of cash flows and accruals in explaining security returns: evidence for the UK

The assessment of earnings usefulness in returns studies has been at the forefront of accounting research since the seminal work of Ball and Brown (1968). Recently, regulatory bodies worldwide have paid increased attention to cash flow reporting. Empirical research provides evidence that earnings information dominates cash flows in market-based accounting research. This study extends the growing empirical literature on the association of earnings and cash flows with security returns. We hypothesize that the association of cash flows with security returns improves (i) the smaller the absolute magnitude of aggregate accruals, (ii) the longer the measurement interval and (iii) the shorter the firms operating cycle. The dataset consists of all UK firms included in the Global vantage database for the period 1984-1992. This study provides evidence that cash flows play a more important role in the marketplace when the operating cycle, magnitude of accruals and the measurement interval are taken into consideration. Moreover, results indicate that cash flows have more information content than earnings in explaining security returns.

Distress Risk, Growth and Earnings Quality

We extend and complement prior work by investigating the earnings quality of firms with different financial health characteristics and growth prospects. By using three alternative measures of default likelihood and two alternative measures of growth options, without being limited to a specific event, we provide a more comprehensive setup for analysing the earnings characteristics of the universe of firms than examining distressed firms with persistent losses, dividend reductions or bankruptcy-filings. Our dataset consists of 15,049 healthy U.S. firms over the period 1990–2004. Results show that the relation between earnings quality and financial health is not monotonic. Distressed firms have a low level of earnings timeliness for bad news and a high level for good news, and manage earnings toward a positive target more frequently than healthy firms. On the other hand, healthy firms have a high level of earnings timeliness for bad news. Growth aspects play an important role in a firms ability to manage earnings. In contrast to the findings of prior studies, growth firms have greater earnings timeliness for bad news, whereas value firms manage earnings toward a positive target more frequently than growth firms.

Cross-Listing and Operating Performance: Evidence from Exchange-Listed American Depositary Receipts

In this paper we examine the operating performance of non-US firms that enter major US stock exchanges using American Depositary Receipt (ADR) programs. Our dataset consists of 108 capital-raising and non-capital-raising firms from twenty four countries, cross-listed on major US stock exchanges during the period 1994-2004. We provide evidence that capital-raising cross-listed firms experience improvements in their operating performance after the listing, relative to a non-cross-listed matched sample of firms and relative to the pre-listing period, whereas non-capital-raising cross-listed firms out-perform a non-cross-listed matched sample of firms for both the pre-listing and the post-listing periods. These results suggest that the type of ADR program conveys information about changes in the post-listing operating performance. Moreover, both capital-raising and non-capital-raising cross-listed firms have positive abnormal returns due to the cross-listing and these abnormal returns are positively related with the post-listing abnormal changes in operating performance, suggesting that the market anticipates the post-listing abnormal changes in operating performance. Results are robust after adjusting for various firm and country risk characteristics. Copyright (c) 2009 The Authors Journal compilation (c) 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Valuation of Earnings, Cash Flows and their Components: An Empirical Investigation:

Security valuation has been in the forefront of the accounting and finance literature for many years. Although there is consensus that stock prices are related to future cash flows of the firm, there is controversy about the usefulness of the ex post earnings and cash flow measures in signaling stock prices. A cross-sectional equity valuation model is used to examine the incremental valuation content of earnings and cash flows in the marketplace. A sample of retail firms is used for the four-year period from 1980 to 1983. The results of this study indicate that (a) operating earnings have valuation content beyond operating cash flows, (b) operating cash flows do not have valuation content beyond operating earnings, and (c) the components of earnings, namely operating cash flows and accruals provide the same information to the market about future expected cash flows.