Andreas Gattringer

Climate change will increase the naturalization risk from garden plants in Europe

Abstract Aim Plant invasions often follow initial introduction with a considerable delay. The current non‐native flora of a region may hence contain species that are not yet naturalized but may become so in the future, especially if climate change lifts limitations on species spread. In Europe, non‐native garden plants represent a huge pool of potential future invaders. Here, we evaluate the naturalization risk from this species pool and how it may change under a warmer climate. Location Europe. Methods We selected all species naturalized anywhere in the world but not yet in Europe from the set of non‐native European garden plants. For this subset of 783 species, we used species distribution models to assess their potential European ranges under different scenarios of climate change. Moreover, we defined geographical hotspots of naturalization risk from those species by combining projections of climatic suitability with maps of the area available for ornamental plant cultivation. Results Under current climate, 165 species would already find suitable conditions in > 5% of Europe. Although climate change substantially increases the potential range of many species, there are also some that are predicted to lose climatically suitable area under a changing climate, particularly species native to boreal and Mediterranean biomes. Overall, hotspots of naturalization risk defined by climatic suitability alone, or by a combination of climatic suitability and appropriate land cover, are projected to increase by up to 102% or 64%, respectively. Main conclusions Our results suggest that the risk of naturalization of European garden plants will increase with warming climate, and thus it is very likely that the risk of negative impacts from invasion by these plants will also grow. It is therefore crucial to increase awareness of the possibility of biological invasions among horticulturalists, particularly in the face of a warming climate.

A novel method to infer the origin of polyploids from AFLP data reveals that the Alpine polyploid complex of Senecio carniolicus (Asteraceae) evolved mainly via autopolyploidy

Despite its evolutionary and ecological relevance, the mode of polyploid origin has been notoriously difficult to be reconstructed from molecular data. Here, we present a method to identify the putative parents of polyploids and thus to infer the mode of their origin (auto‐ vs. allopolyploidy) from Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism (AFLP) data. To this end, we use Cohens d of distances between in silico polyploids, generated within a priori defined scenarios of origin from a priori delimited putative parental entities (e.g. taxa, genetic lineages), and natural polyploids. Simulations show that the discriminatory power of the proposed method increases mainly with increasing divergence between the lower‐ploid putative ancestors and less so with increasing delay of polyploidization relative to the time of divergence. We apply the new method to the Senecio carniolicus aggregate, distributed in the European Alps and comprising two diploid, one tetraploid and one hexaploid species. In the eastern part of its distribution, the S. carniolicus aggregate was inferred to comprise an autopolyploid series, whereas for western populations of the tetraploid species, an allopolyploid origin involving the two diploid species was the most likely scenario. Although this suggests that the tetraploid species has two independent origins, other evidence (ribotype distribution, morphology) is consistent with the hypothesis of an autopolyploid origin with subsequent introgression by the second diploid species. Altogether, identifying the best among alternative scenarios using Cohens d can be straightforward, but particular scenarios, such as allopolyploid origin vs. autopolyploid origin with subsequent introgression, remain difficult to be distinguished.

Will climate change increase hybridization risk between potential plant invaders and their congeners in Europe

Abstract Aim Interspecific hybridization can promote invasiveness of alien species. In many regions of the world, public and domestic gardens contain a huge pool of non‐native plants. Climate change may relax constraints on their naturalization and hence facilitate hybridization with related species in the resident flora. Here, we evaluate this possible increase in hybridization risk by predicting changes in the overlap of climatically suitable ranges between a set of garden plants and their congeners in the resident flora. Location Europe. Methods From the pool of alien garden plants, we selected those which (1) are not naturalized in Europe, but established outside their native range elsewhere in the world; (2) belong to a genus where interspecific hybridization has been previously reported; and (3) have congeners in the native and naturalized flora of Europe. For the resulting set of 34 alien ornamentals as well as for 173 of their European congeners, we fitted species distribution models and projected suitable ranges under the current climate and three future climate scenarios. Changes in range overlap between garden plants and congeners were then assessed by means of the true skill statistic. Results Projections suggest that under a warming climate, suitable ranges of garden plants will increase, on average, while those of their congeners will remain constant or shrink, at least under the more severe climate scenarios. The mean overlap in ranges among congeners of the two groups will decrease. Variation among genera is pronounced; however, and for some congeners, range overlap is predicted to increase significantly. Main conclusions Averaged across all modelled species, our results do not indicate that hybrids between potential future invaders and resident species will emerge more frequently in Europe when climate warms. These average trends do not preclude, however, that hybridization risk may considerably increase in particular genera.

Reconstructing geographical parthenogenesis: effects of niche differentiation and reproductive mode on Holocene range expansion of an alpine plant

Abstract Asexual taxa often have larger ranges than their sexual progenitors, particularly in areas affected by Pleistocene glaciations. The reasons given for this ‘geographical parthenogenesis’ are contentious, with expansion of the ecological niche or colonisation advantages of uniparental reproduction assumed most important in case of plants. Here, we parameterized a spread model for the alpine buttercup Ranunculus kuepferi and reconstructed the joint Holocene range expansion of its sexual and apomictic cytotype across the European Alps under different simulation settings. We found that, rather than niche broadening or a higher migration rate, a shift of the apomicts niche towards colder conditions per se was crucial as it facilitated overcoming of topographical barriers, a factor likely relevant for many alpine apomicts. More generally, our simulations suggest potentially strong interacting effects of niche differentiation and reproductive modes on range formation of related sexual and asexual taxa arising from their differential sensitivity to minority cytotype disadvantage.