Andreas Kääb

The State and Fate of Himalayan Glaciers

Going More Slowly Himalayan glaciers sometimes are called the “Third Pole” because of the amount of snow and ice they contain. Despite their importance as a global water reservoir and their essential role in Asian hydrology, how their mass is changing in response to global warming is not well known. Bolch et al. (p. 310) review the contemporary evolution of glaciers in the Himalayan region, including those of the less well sampled region of the Karakoram to the Northwest, in order to provide a current, comprehensive picture of how they are changing. Most Himalayan glaciers are retreating at rates comparable to glaciers elsewhere in the world. In the Karakorum, on the other hand, advancing glaciers are more common. Himalayan glaciers are a focus of public and scientific debate. Prevailing uncertainties are of major concern because some projections of their future have serious implications for water resources. Most Himalayan glaciers are losing mass at rates similar to glaciers elsewhere, except for emerging indications of stability or mass gain in the Karakoram. A poor understanding of the processes affecting them, combined with the diversity of climatic conditions and the extremes of topographical relief within the region, makes projections speculative. Nevertheless, it is unlikely that dramatic changes in total runoff will occur soon, although continuing shrinkage outside the Karakoram will increase the seasonality of runoff, affect irrigation and hydropower, and alter hazards.

Contrasting patterns of early twenty-first-century glacier mass change in the Himalayas

Glaciers are among the best indicators of terrestrial climate variability, contribute importantly to water resources in many mountainous regions and are a major contributor to global sea level rise. In the Hindu Kush–Karakoram–Himalaya region (HKKH), a paucity of appropriate glacier data has prevented a comprehensive assessment of current regional mass balance. There is, however, indirect evidence of a complex pattern of glacial responses in reaction to heterogeneous climate change signals. Here we use satellite laser altimetry and a global elevation model to show widespread glacier wastage in the eastern, central and south-western parts of the HKKH during 2003–08. Maximal regional thinning rates were 0.66 ± 0.09 metres per year in the Jammu–Kashmir region. Conversely, in the Karakoram, glaciers thinned only slightly by a few centimetres per year. Contrary to expectations, regionally averaged thinning rates under debris-mantled ice were similar to those of clean ice despite insulation by debris covers. The 2003–08 specific mass balance for our entire HKKH study region was −0.21 ± 0.05 m yr−1 water equivalent, significantly less negative than the estimated global average for glaciers and ice caps. This difference is mainly an effect of the balanced glacier mass budget in the Karakoram. The HKKH sea level contribution amounts to one per cent of the present-day sea level rise. Our 2003–08 mass budget of −12.8 ± 3.5 gigatonnes (Gt) per year is more negative than recent satellite-gravimetry-based estimates of −5 ± 3 Gt yr−1 over 2003–10 (ref. 12). For the mountain catchments of the Indus and Ganges basins, the glacier imbalance contributed about 3.5% and about 2.0%, respectively, to the annual average river discharge, and up to 10% for the Upper Indus basin.

Rapid disintegration of Alpine glaciers observed with satellite data

Analyses of multispectral satellite data indicate accelerated glacier decline around the globe since the 1980s. By using digitized glacier outlines inferred from the 1973 inventory and Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) satellite data from 1985 to 1999, we obtained area changes of about 930 Alpine glaciers. The 18% area reduction as observed for the period 1985 to 1999 (−1.3% a⁻¹) corresponds to a seven times higher loss rate compared to the 1850–1973 decadal mean. Extrapolation of area change rates and cumulative mass balances to all Alpine glaciers yields a corresponding volume loss of about 25 km³ since 1973. Highly individual and non-uniform changes in glacier geometry (disintegration) indicate a massive down-wasting rather than a dynamic response to a changed climate. Our results imply stronger ongoing glacier retreat than assumed so far and a probable further enhancement of glacier disintegration by positive feedbacks.

Monitoring high-mountain terrain deformation from repeated air- and spaceborne optical data: examples using digital aerial imagery and ASTER data

Abstract High mountains represent one of the most dynamic environments on earth. Monitoring their terrain changes is necessary to understand mass-transport systems, to detect related environmental variability, and to assess natural hazards. Here, we apply standard software to automatically generate digital elevation models (DEM) from aerial photography and Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) satellite stereo imagery. By comparison to a photogrammetrically derived DEM, an accuracy of ±60 m RMS of the ASTER DEM was found for rough high-mountain topography, and ±18 m RMS for moderately mountainous terrain. Differences between multi-temporal DEMs are used to determine vertical terrain changes. Horizontal movements are computed from multi-temporal orthoimages. The techniques are applied for three case studies. (1) The flow-field of Tasman glacier, New Zealand, as measured from ASTER data, showed glacier speeds of up to 250 m per year and a surprising minimum speed in the middle of the glacier. (2) The velocity-field of creeping mountain permafrost in Val Muragl, Swiss Alps, with speeds of up to 0.5 m per year was determined with high resolution from aerial stereo imagery and provided new insights in the spatial coherence of permafrost creep. (3) Deformations of up to 0.1 m per year on a large landslide near Aletsch glacier, Swiss Alps, could be detected. As a rule of thumb, we estimate the achieved accuracy for elevation changes and horizontal displacements to approximate the size of one image pixel, i.e. 15 m for ASTER and 0.2–0.3 m for the here-used aerial photography.

The new remote sensing derived Swiss glacier inventory: II. First results.

Abstract A new Swiss glacier inventory is to be compiled from satellite data for the year 2000. The study presented here describes two major tasks: an accuracy assessment of different methods for glacier classification with Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data and a digital elevation model (DEM); the geographical information system (GIS)-based methods for automatic extraction of individual glaciers from classified satellite data and the computation of three-dimensional glacier parameters (such as minimum, maximum and median elevation or slope and orientation) by fusion with a DEM. First results obtained by these methods are presented in Part II of this paper (Kääb and others, 2002). Thresholding of a ratio image from TM4 and TM5 reveals the best-suited glacier map. The computation of glacier parameters in a GIS environment is efficient and suitable for worldwide application. The methods developed contribute to the U. S. Geological Survey-led Global Land Ice Measurements from Space (GLIMS) project which is currently compiling a global inventory of land ice masses within the framework of global glacier monitoring (Haeberli and others, 2000).

Remote sensing and GIS technology in the Global Land Ice Measurements from Space (GLIMS) Project

Global Land Ice Measurements from Space (GLIMS) is an international consortium established to acquire satellite images of the worlds glaciers, analyze them for glacier extent and changes, and to assess these change data in terms of forcings. The consortium is organized into a system of Regional Centers, each of which is responsible for glaciers in their region of expertise. Specialized needs for mapping glaciers in a distributed analysis environment require considerable work developing software tools: terrain classification emphasizing snow, ice, water, and admixtures of ice with rock debris; change detection and analysis; visualization of images and derived data; interpretation and archival of derived data; and analysis to ensure consistency of results from different Regional Centers. A global glacier database has been designed and implemented at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (Boulder, CO); parameters have been expanded from those of the World Glacier Inventory (WGI), and the database has been structured to be compatible with (and to incorporate) WGI data. The project as a whole was originated, and has been coordinated by, the US Geological Survey (Flagstaff, AZ), which has also led the development of an interactive tool for automated analysis and manual editing of glacier images and derived data (GLIMSView). This article addresses remote sensing and Geographic Information Science techniques developed within the framework of GLIMS in order to fulfill the goals of this distributed project. Sample applications illustrating the developed techniques are also shown.

Analysing the creep of mountain permafrost using high precision aerial photogrammetry: 25 years of monitoring Gruben rock glacier, Swiss Alps

Aerophotogrammetrical monitoring of Gruben rock glacier over the period 1970 to 1995 results in a unique time series documenting the three-dimensional surface kinematics of creeping mountain permafrost. In places, the area under study is aAected by historical fluctuations of the polythermal Gruben glacier. Changes in elevation and surface velocities were measured over five consecutive five-year periods using an advanced photogrammetric monoplotting technique of multitemporal stereo models. The measurements are based on a regular grid with a mesh width of 25 metres and have an accuracy of a few centimetres per year. Although surface lifting occurred in places and within individual time intervals, surface subsidence predominated at an average rate of a few centimetres per year in the ‘periglacial’ part of the rock glacier and of a few decimetres per year in the ‘glacier-aAected’ part of the rock glacier which still contains some dead glacier ice in permafrost. Fluctuations in horizontal surface velocities seem to correlate with temporal changes in surface elevation. Analysing flow along principal trajectories and interpreting the advance rate of the front leads to an age estimate of the rock glacier of a few millennia. Dynamic eAects of three-dimensional straining within the creeping permafrost as computed from the measured surface velocity field are estimated to potentially contribute to surface heave or subsidence in the same order of magnitude as the observed vertical changes. Temporal variations of surface altitudes at Gruben rock glacier show distinct similarities with mass balance and surface altitude variations determined on nearby glaciers but at a greatly reduced amplitude. This similarity may indicate that the same climatic forcing (summer temperatures?) could possibly have a predominant influence on permafrost aggradation/degradation as well as on glacier mass balance in mountain areas. #1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Global Land Ice Measurements from Space (GLIMS): remote sensing and GIS investigations of the Earth's cryosphere

Abstract Concerns over greenhouse‐gas forcing and global temperatures have initiated research into understanding climate forcing and associated Earth‐system responses. A significant component is the Earths cryosphere, as glacier‐related, feedback mechanisms govern atmospheric, hydrospheric and lithospheric response. Predicting the human and natural dimensions of climate‐induced environmental change requires global, regional and local information about ice‐mass distribution, volumes, and fluctuations. The Global Land‐Ice Measurements from Space (GLIMS) project is specifically designed to produce and augment baseline information to facilitate glacier‐change studies. This requires addressing numerous issues, including the generation of topographic information, anisotropic‐reflectance correction of satellite imagery, data fusion and spatial analysis, and GIS‐based modeling. Field and satellite investigations indicate that many small glaciers and glaciers in temperate regions are downwasting and retreating, although detailed mapping and assessment are still required to ascertain regional and global patterns of ice‐mass variations. Such remote sensing/GIS studies, coupled with field investigations, are vital for producing baseline information on glacier changes, and improving our understanding of the complex linkages between atmospheric, lithospheric, and glaciological processes.

Perspectives on the production of a glacier inventory from multispectral satellite data in Arctic Canada: Cumberland Peninsula, Baffin Island

Abstract The consequences of global warming on land ice masses are difficult to assess in detail, as two-dimensional glacier inventory data are still missing for many remote regions of the world. As the largest future temperature increase is expected to occur at high latitudes, the glaciers and ice caps in the Arctic will be particularly susceptible to the expected warming. This study demonstrates the possibilities of space-borne glacier inventorying at a remote site on Cumberland Peninsula, a part of Baffin Island in Arctic Canada, thereby providing glacier inventory data for this region. Our approach combines Landsat ETM+ and Terra ASTER satellite data, an ASTER-derived digital elevation model (DEM) and Geographic Information System-based processing. We used thresholded ratio images from ETM+ bands 3 and 5 and ASTER bands 3 and 4 for glacier mapping. Manual delineation of Little Ice Age trimlines and moraines has been applied to calculate area changes for 225 glaciers, yielding an average area loss of 11%. A size distribution has been obtained for 770 glaciers that is very different from that for Alpine glaciers. Numerous three-dimensional glacier parameters were derived from the ASTER DEM for a subset of 340 glaciers. The amount of working time required for the processing has been tracked, and resulted in 5 min per glacier, or 7 years for all estimated 160 000 glaciers worldwide.

Geomorphic and geologic controls of geohazards induced by Nepal’s 2015 Gorkha earthquake

Nepals quake-driven landslide hazards Large earthquakes can trigger dangerous landslides across a wide geographic region. The 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorhka earthquake near Kathmandu, Nepal, was no exception. Kargal et al. used remote observations to compile a massive catalog of triggered debris flows. The satellite-based observations came from a rapid response team assisting the disaster relief effort. Schwanghart et al. show that Kathmandu escaped the historically catastrophic landslides associated with earthquakes in 1100, 1255, and 1344 C.E. near Nepals second largest city, Pokhara. These two studies underscore the importance of determining slope stability in mountainous, earthquake-prone regions. Science, this issue p. 10.1126/science.aac8353; see also p. 147 Satellite imaging isolated hazard potential for earthquake-triggered landslides after the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal. INTRODUCTION On 25 April 2015, the Gorkha earthquake [magnitude (M) 7.8] struck Nepal, followed by five aftershocks of ≥M 6.0 until 10 June 2015. The earthquakes killed ~9000 people and severely damaged a 550 by 200 km region in Nepal and neighboring countries. Some mountain villages were completely destroyed, and the remote locations, blocked roads, and landslide-dammed rivers prevented ground access to many areas. RATIONALE Our “Volunteer Group” of scientists from nine nations, motivated by humanitarian needs, focused on satellite-based systematic mapping and analysis of earthquake-induced geohazards. We provided information to relief and recovery officials as emergency operations were occurring, while supported by one of the largest-ever NASA-led campaigns of responsive satellite data acquisitions over a vast disaster zone. Our analysis of geohazards distribution allowed evaluation of geomorphic, tectonic, and lithologic controls on earthquake-induced landsliding, process mechanisms, and hazard process chains, particularly where they affected local populations. RESULTS We mapped 4312 coseismic and postseismic landslides. Their distribution shows positive associations with slope and shaking intensity. The highest areal densities of landslides are developed on the downdropped northern tectonic block, which is likely explained by momentary reduction of the normal stress along planes of weakness during downward acceleration. The two largest shocks bracket the high-density landslide distribution, the largest magnitudes of the surface displacement field, and highest peak ground accelerations (PGAs). Landslides are heavily concentrated where PGA was >0.6g and slope is >30°. Additional controls on landslide occurrence are indicated by their clustering near earthquake epicenters and within specific lithologic units. The product of PGA and the sine of surface slope (defined as the landslide susceptibility index) is a good indicator of where most landslides occurred. A tail of the statistical distributions of landslides extends to low values of the landslide susceptibility index. Slight earthquake shaking affected vulnerable materials hanging on steep slopes—such as ice, snow, and glacial debris—and moderate to strong shaking affected poorly consolidated sediments deposited in low-sloping river valleys, which were already poised near a failure threshold. In the remote Langtang Valley, some of the most concentrated destruction and losses of life outside the Kathmandu Valley were directly due to earthquake-induced landslides and air blasts. Complex seismic wave interactions and wave focusing may have caused ridgetop shattering and landslides near Langtang but reduced direct shaking damage on valley floors and at glacial lakes. CONCLUSION The Gorkha earthquake took a tremendous, tragic toll on human lives and culture. However, fortunately no damaging earthquake-caused glacier lake outburst floods were observed by our satellite analysis. The total number of landslides was far fewer than those generated by comparable earthquakes elsewhere, probably because of a lack of surface ruptures, the concentration of deformation along the subsurface thrust fault at 10 to 15 km depth, and the regional dominance of competent high-grade metamorphic and intrusive igneous rock types. Landslide distribution and effects of a huge landslide. (A) Landslides (purple dots) are concentrated mostly north of the tectonic hinge-line. Also shown are the epicenters of the main shock and largest aftershock. Displacements are from the JAXA ALOS-2 ScanSAR interferogram (21 Feb and 2 May 2015 acquisitions). (B and C) Before-and-after photographs obtained by D. Breashears in Langtang Valley showing complete destruction of a large part of Langtang village by a huge landslide. The Gorkha earthquake (magnitude 7.8) on 25 April 2015 and later aftershocks struck South Asia, killing ~9000 people and damaging a large region. Supported by a large campaign of responsive satellite data acquisitions over the earthquake disaster zone, our team undertook a satellite image survey of the earthquakes’ induced geohazards in Nepal and China and an assessment of the geomorphic, tectonic, and lithologic controls on quake-induced landslides. Timely analysis and communication aided response and recovery and informed decision-makers. We mapped 4312 coseismic and postseismic landslides. We also surveyed 491 glacier lakes for earthquake damage but found only nine landslide-impacted lakes and no visible satellite evidence of outbursts. Landslide densities correlate with slope, peak ground acceleration, surface downdrop, and specific metamorphic lithologies and large plutonic intrusions.