Andreas Molin

Models of domestic occupancy, activities and energy use based on time-use data: deterministic and stochastic approaches with application to various building-related simulations

Time-use data (TUD) have a large potential for improving occupancy and load modelling and for introducing realistic behavioural patterns into various simulations. In this article, previously developed models of occupancy, activities and energy use based on TUD are extended and described in a general framework. Two extensions are studied: deterministic conversion of empirical TUD is extended into a complete thermal load model encompassing both occupancy and various end-uses and a Markov-chain approach for generating synthetic TUD sequences is extended to include a model for load management. Three examples of building-related applications are presented: simulation of indoor climate in a low-energy building, household electricity load management in response to time-differentiated electricity tariffs and simulations of load matching in a net zero energy building. The main conclusion is that the extended model framework can generate detailed and realistic behavioural patterns that allow diversity and correlations between end-uses to be taken into account.