Andreas Papadopoulos

Climate extremes and predicted warming threaten Mediterranean Holocene firs forests refugia

Significance Climate extremes are major drivers of long-term forest growth trends, but we still lack appropriate knowledge to anticipate their effects. Here, we apply a conceptual framework to assess the vulnerability of Circum-Mediterranean Abies refugia in response to climate warming, droughts, and heat waves. Using a tree-ring network and a process-based model, we assess the future vulnerability of Mediterranean Abies forests. Models anticipate abrupt growth reductions for the late 21st century when climatic conditions will be analogous to the most severe dry/heat spells causing forest die-off in the past decades. However, growth would increase in moist refugia. Circum-Mediterranean fir forests currently subjected to warm and dry conditions will be the most vulnerable according to the climate model predictions for the late 21st century. Warmer and drier climatic conditions are projected for the 21st century; however, the role played by extreme climatic events on forest vulnerability is still little understood. For example, more severe droughts and heat waves could threaten quaternary relict tree refugia such as Circum-Mediterranean fir forests (CMFF). Using tree-ring data and a process-based model, we characterized the major climate constraints of recent (1950–2010) CMFF growth to project their vulnerability to 21st-century climate. Simulations predict a 30% growth reduction in some fir species with the 2050s business-as-usual emission scenario, whereas growth would increase in moist refugia due to a longer and warmer growing season. Fir populations currently subjected to warm and dry conditions will be the most vulnerable in the late 21st century when climatic conditions will be analogous to the most severe dry/heat spells causing dieback in the late 20th century. Quantification of growth trends based on climate scenarios could allow defining vulnerability thresholds in tree populations. The presented predictions call for conservation strategies to safeguard relict tree populations and anticipate how many refugia could be threatened by 21st-century dry spells.

Floristic diversity of valonia oak silvopastoral woodlands in Greece

Valonia oak (Quercus ithaburensis subsp. macrolepis (Kotschy) Hedge and Yaltirik), a deciduous species grown in the xerothermic conditions of the east Mediterranean zone of Europe, forms woodlands of open canopy that permits adequate light to reach the ground thus sustaining an exceptionally rich flora. In Greece, these woodlands are mainly used for livestock grazing and considered important silvopastoral systems. Nowadays, most of them are abandoned and degraded as a result of inappropriate management. For the effective evaluation and sustainable management of these woodlands and the establishment of reliable monitoring systems, a detailed analysis of their plant diversity characteristics across Greece is needed. This paper aims at determining and comparing floristic diversity measures as well as at assessing the impact of human activities on vegetation and floristic diversity of the most characteristic valonia oak silvopastoral woodlands of Greece. It was found that the truncated log-normal model adequately predicts the species abundance data for eleven out of the twelve woodlands. From the statistical comparison of the diversity indices Q-statistic, Berger–Parker dominance index and Shannon-Wiener measure of equitability, three groups of these woodlands can be distinguished (a) the high-richness group of Pentalofos, Lesvos, Lakonia and Thesprotia, (b) the medium-richness group of Kriti Island, Alexandroupoli, Strofylia and Galaxidi, and (c) the low-richness group of Kea Island, Amfilohia, Almyros and Lilaia. However, the Rényi’s diversity ordering diagram showed that, generally, in low levels of entropy inconsistency is the rule and no clear pattern of diversity is extracted reflecting the impact of complex factors. Among them, those related to management seem to mostly determine plant diversity of valonia oak silvopastoral woodlands, with abiotic factors having an occasionally supporting role. Changes of species richness and evenness due to livestock grazing as well as acorn and wood harvesting are further discussed.

Valonia oak agroforestry systems in Greece: an overview

Valonia oak agroforestry systems of Greece are Mediterranean systems of high natural and cultural value with distinct economic, environmental, social and historical characteristics. These systems can be silvopastoral or agrosilvopastoral, and have been used since ancient times for grazing, and acorn and wood harvesting. Acorn cup collection for use in tanning, which has been undertaken since at least the fifteenth century, was an important economic activity from the nineteenth to the mid-twentieth century contributing to the local economy and development. This overview describes the historical importance of valonia oak in Greece, and the present extent, structure, ecology, products and services of valonia oak agroforestry. The sustainability of such systems is being promoted through the sale of traditional and new products, eco- and agri-tourism, and engagement with local stakeholders.