Andreas Raue

Structural and practical identifiability analysis of partially observed dynamical models by exploiting the profile likelihood

MOTIVATION Mathematical description of biological reaction networks by differential equations leads to large models whose parameters are calibrated in order to optimally explain experimental data. Often only parts of the model can be observed directly. Given a model that sufficiently describes the measured data, it is important to infer how well model parameters are determined by the amount and quality of experimental data. This knowledge is essential for further investigation of model predictions. For this reason a major topic in modeling is identifiability analysis. RESULTS We suggest an approach that exploits the profile likelihood. It enables to detect structural non-identifiabilities, which manifest in functionally related model parameters. Furthermore, practical non-identifiabilities are detected, that might arise due to limited amount and quality of experimental data. Last but not least confidence intervals can be derived. The results are easy to interpret and can be used for experimental planning and for model reduction. AVAILABILITY An implementation is freely available for MATLAB and the PottersWheel modeling toolbox at http://web.me.com/andreas.raue/profile/software.html. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Covering a Broad Dynamic Range: Information Processing at the Erythropoietin Receptor

Seeing EPO The supply of red blood cells in mammals is controlled by the cytokine erythropoietin (EPO). In physiological situations, the concentration of EPO can change by 1000-fold. Becker et al. (p. 1404, published online 20 May) used a combination of mathematical modeling and experimental analysis to discern how cells can maintain a linear response to such a broad range of EPO concentrations. Critical features included internalization of EPO-bound receptors and subsequent degradation of the EPO ligand. Replenishment of receptors at the cell surface required a large supply of EPO receptors maintained in reserve inside the cell. These mechanisms allow cells to experience large increases in EPO concentration without becoming refractory to further stimulation. Modeling and experiments help to explain responsiveness of red blood cell precursors to very large changes in a proliferative signal. Cell surface receptors convert extracellular cues into receptor activation, thereby triggering intracellular signaling networks and controlling cellular decisions. A major unresolved issue is the identification of receptor properties that critically determine processing of ligand-encoded information. We show by mathematical modeling of quantitative data and experimental validation that rapid ligand depletion and replenishment of the cell surface receptor are characteristic features of the erythropoietin (Epo) receptor (EpoR). The amount of Epo-EpoR complexes and EpoR activation integrated over time corresponds linearly to ligand input; this process is carried out over a broad range of ligand concentrations. This relation depends solely on EpoR turnover independent of ligand binding, which suggests an essential role of large intracellular receptor pools. These receptor properties enable the system to cope with basal and acute demand in the hematopoietic system.

Lessons learned from quantitative dynamical modeling in systems biology.

Due to the high complexity of biological data it is difficult to disentangle cellular processes relying only on intuitive interpretation of measurements. A Systems Biology approach that combines quantitative experimental data with dynamic mathematical modeling promises to yield deeper insights into these processes. Nevertheless, with growing complexity and increasing amount of quantitative experimental data, building realistic and reliable mathematical models can become a challenging task: the quality of experimental data has to be assessed objectively, unknown model parameters need to be estimated from the experimental data, and numerical calculations need to be precise and efficient. Here, we discuss, compare and characterize the performance of computational methods throughout the process of quantitative dynamic modeling using two previously established examples, for which quantitative, dose- and time-resolved experimental data are available. In particular, we present an approach that allows to determine the quality of experimental data in an efficient, objective and automated manner. Using this approach data generated by different measurement techniques and even in single replicates can be reliably used for mathematical modeling. For the estimation of unknown model parameters, the performance of different optimization algorithms was compared systematically. Our results show that deterministic derivative-based optimization employing the sensitivity equations in combination with a multi-start strategy based on latin hypercube sampling outperforms the other methods by orders of magnitude in accuracy and speed. Finally, we investigated transformations that yield a more efficient parameterization of the model and therefore lead to a further enhancement in optimization performance. We provide a freely available open source software package that implements the algorithms and examples compared here.

Addressing parameter identifiability by model-based experimentation.

Mathematical description of biological processes such as gene regulatory networks or signalling pathways by dynamic models utilising ordinary differential equations faces challenges if the model parameters like rate constants are estimated from incomplete and noisy experimental data. Typically, biological networks are only partially observed. Only a fraction of the modelled molecular species is measurable directly. This can result in structurally non-identifiable model parameters. Furthermore, practical non-identifiability can arise from limited amount and quality of experimental data. In the challenge of growing model complexity on one side, and experimental limitations on the other side, both types of non-identifiability arise frequently in systems biological applications often prohibiting reliable prediction of system dynamics. On theoretical grounds this article summarises how and why both types of non-identifiability arise. It exemplifies pitfalls where models do not yield reliable predictions of system dynamics because of non-identifiabilities. Subsequently, several approaches for identifiability analysis proposed in the literature are discussed. The aim is to provide an overview of applicable methods for detecting parameter identifiability issues. Once non-identifiability is detected, it can be resolved either by experimental design, measuring additional data under suitable conditions; or by model reduction, tailoring the size of the model to the information content provided by the experimental data. Both strategies enhance model predictability and will be elucidated by an example application. [Includes supplementary material].

Identifiability and observability analysis for experimental design in nonlinear dynamical models

Dynamical models of cellular processes promise to yield new insights into the underlying systems and their biological interpretation. The processes are usually nonlinear, high dimensional, and time-resolved experimental data of the processes are sparse. Therefore, parameter estimation faces the challenges of structural and practical nonidentifiability. Nonidentifiability of parameters induces nonobservability of trajectories, reducing the predictive power of the model. We will discuss a generic approach for nonlinear models that allows for identifiability and observability analysis by means of a realistic example from systems biology. The results will be utilized to design new experiments that enhance model predictiveness, illustrating the iterative cycle between modeling and experimentation in systems biology.

Division of labor by dual feedback regulators controls JAK2/STAT5 signaling over broad ligand range

Cellular signal transduction is governed by multiple feedback mechanisms to elicit robust cellular decisions. The specific contributions of individual feedback regulators, however, remain unclear. Based on extensive time‐resolved data sets in primary erythroid progenitor cells, we established a dynamic pathway model to dissect the roles of the two transcriptional negative feedback regulators of the suppressor of cytokine signaling (SOCS) family, CIS and SOCS3, in JAK2/STAT5 signaling. Facilitated by the model, we calculated the STAT5 response for experimentally unobservable Epo concentrations and provide a quantitative link between cell survival and the integrated response of STAT5 in the nucleus. Model predictions show that the two feedbacks CIS and SOCS3 are most effective at different ligand concentration ranges due to their distinct inhibitory mechanisms. This divided function of dual feedback regulation enables control of STAT5 responses for Epo concentrations that can vary 1000‐fold in vivo. Our modeling approach reveals dose‐dependent feedback control as key property to regulate STAT5‐mediated survival decisions over a broad range of ligand concentrations.

Summary of the DREAM8 Parameter Estimation Challenge: Toward Parameter Identification for Whole-Cell Models

Whole-cell models that explicitly represent all cellular components at the molecular level have the potential to predict phenotype from genotype. However, even for simple bacteria, whole-cell models will contain thousands of parameters, many of which are poorly characterized or unknown. New algorithms are needed to estimate these parameters and enable researchers to build increasingly comprehensive models. We organized the Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessments and Methods (DREAM) 8 Whole-Cell Parameter Estimation Challenge to develop new parameter estimation algorithms for whole-cell models. We asked participants to identify a subset of parameters of a whole-cell model given the model’s structure and in silico “experimental” data. Here we describe the challenge, the best performing methods, and new insights into the identifiability of whole-cell models. We also describe several valuable lessons we learned toward improving future challenges. Going forward, we believe that collaborative efforts supported by inexpensive cloud computing have the potential to solve whole-cell model parameter estimation.

Comparison of approaches for parameter identifiability analysis of biological systems

MOTIVATION Modeling of dynamical systems using ordinary differential equations is a popular approach in the field of Systems Biology. The amount of experimental data that are used to build and calibrate these models is often limited. In this setting, the model parameters may not be uniquely determinable. Structural or a priori identifiability is a property of the system equations that indicates whether, in principle, the unknown model parameters can be determined from the available data. RESULTS We performed a case study using three current approaches for structural identifiability analysis for an application from cell biology. The approaches are conceptually different and are developed independently. The results of the three approaches are in agreement. We discuss strength and weaknesses of each of them and illustrate how they can be applied to real world problems. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION For application of the approaches to further applications, code representations (DAISY, Mathematica and MATLAB) for benchmark model and data are provided on the authors webpage. CONTACT andreas.raue@fdm.uni-freiburg.de.

Likelihood based observability analysis and confidence intervals for predictions of dynamic models

BackgroundPredicting a system’s behavior based on a mathematical model is a primary task in Systems Biology. If the model parameters are estimated from experimental data, the parameter uncertainty has to be translated into confidence intervals for model predictions. For dynamic models of biochemical networks, the nonlinearity in combination with the large number of parameters hampers the calculation of prediction confidence intervals and renders classical approaches as hardly feasible.ResultsIn this article reliable confidence intervals are calculated based on the prediction profile likelihood. Such prediction confidence intervals of the dynamic states can be utilized for a data-based observability analysis. The method is also applicable if there are non-identifiable parameters yielding to some insufficiently specified model predictions that can be interpreted as non-observability. Moreover, a validation profile likelihood is introduced that should be applied when noisy validation experiments are to be interpreted.ConclusionsThe presented methodology allows the propagation of uncertainty from experimental to model predictions. Although presented in the context of ordinary differential equations, the concept is general and also applicable to other types of models. Matlab code which can be used as a template to implement the method is provided athttp://www.fdmold.uni-freiburg.de/∼ckreutz/PPL.

Data2Dynamics: a modeling environment tailored to parameter estimation in dynamical systems

UNLABELLED Modeling of dynamical systems using ordinary differential equations is a popular approach in the field of systems biology. Two of the most critical steps in this approach are to construct dynamical models of biochemical reaction networks for large datasets and complex experimental conditions and to perform efficient and reliable parameter estimation for model fitting. We present a modeling environment for MATLAB that pioneers these challenges. The numerically expensive parts of the calculations such as the solving of the differential equations and of the associated sensitivity system are parallelized and automatically compiled into efficient C code. A variety of parameter estimation algorithms as well as frequentist and Bayesian methods for uncertainty analysis have been implemented and used on a range of applications that lead to publications. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION The Data2Dynamics modeling environment is MATLAB based, open source and freely available at http://www.data2dynamics.org. CONTACT andreas.raue@fdm.uni-freiburg.de SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.