Andreas Sashegyi

Ramucirumab plus docetaxel versus placebo plus docetaxel for second-line treatment of stage IV non-small-cell lung cancer after disease progression on platinum-based therapy (REVEL): a multicentre, double-blind, randomised phase 3 trial.

BACKGROUND Ramucirumab is a human IgG1 monoclonal antibody that targets the extracellular domain of VEGFR-2. We aimed to assess efficacy and safety of treatment with docetaxel plus ramucirumab or placebo as second-line treatment for patients with stage IV non-small-cell-lung cancer (NSCLC) after platinum-based therapy. METHODS In this multicentre, double-blind, randomised phase 3 trial (REVEL), we enrolled patients with squamous or non-squamous NSCLC who had progressed during or after a first-line platinum-based chemotherapy regimen. Patients were randomly allocated (1:1) with a centralised, interactive voice-response system (stratified by sex, region, performance status, and previous maintenance therapy [yes vs no]) to receive docetaxel 75 mg/m(2) and either ramucirumab (10 mg/kg) or placebo on day 1 of a 21 day cycle until disease progression, unacceptable toxicity, withdrawal, or death. The primary endpoint was overall survival in all patients allocated to treatment. We assessed adverse events according to treatment received. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01168973. FINDINGS Between Dec 3, 2010, and Jan 24, 2013, we screened 1825 patients, of whom 1253 patients were randomly allocated to treatment. Median overall survival was 10·5 months (IQR 5·1-21·2) for 628 patients allocated ramucirumab plus docetaxel and 9·1 months (4·2-18·0) for 625 patients who received placebo plus docetaxel (hazard ratio 0·86, 95% CI 0·75-0·98; p=0·023). Median progression-free survival was 4·5 months (IQR 2·3-8·3) for the ramucirumab group compared with 3·0 months (1·4-6·9) for the control group (0·76, 0·68-0·86; p<0·0001). We noted treatment-emergent adverse events in 613 (98%) of 627 patients in the ramucirumab safety population and 594 (95%) of 618 patients in the control safety population. The most common grade 3 or worse adverse events were neutropenia (306 patients [49%] in the ramucirumab group vs 246 [40%] in the control group), febrile neutropenia (100 [16%] vs 62 [10%]), fatigue (88 [14%] vs 65 [10%]), leucopenia (86 [14%] vs 77 [12%]), and hypertension (35 [6%] vs 13 [2%]). The numbers of deaths from adverse events (31 [5%] vs 35 [6%]) and grade 3 or worse pulmonary haemorrhage (eight [1%] vs eight [1%]) did not differ between groups. Toxicities were manageable with appropriate dose reductions and supportive care. INTERPRETATION Ramucirumab plus docetaxel improves survival as second-line treatment of patients with stage IV NSCLC. FUNDING Eli Lilly.

Baseline characteristics of participants in the Raloxifene Use for The Heart (RUTH) trial

The Raloxifene Use for The Heart (RUTH) trial is a randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind trial designed to determine whether raloxifene 60 mg/day compared with placebo lowers the risk of coronary events (coronary death, nonfatal myocardial infarction [MI], or hospitalized acute coronary syndromes other than MI) and reduces the risk of invasive breast cancer in women at risk for a major coronary event. Raloxifene is a selective estrogen receptor modulator that improves cardiovascular risk factors, reduces the risk of vertebral fracture, and is associated with a reduced incidence of invasive breast cancer in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis. Between June 1998 and August 2000, 10,101 women were enrolled at 187 sites in 26 countries. Approximately half of the women had documented coronary heart disease (CHD) (n = 5,031); the remainder had multiple CHD risk factors that increased their risk for a CHD event (n = 5,070). The mean age of participants was 68 years (39% were >70 years old), and did not differ between those with documented CHD and those at increased CHD risk. Most women were Caucasian (84%); 60% had a body mass index >/=27 kg/m(2), 46% had diabetes mellitus, 78% had systemic hypertension, and 14% had low-density lipoprotein cholesterol >160 mg/dl. Compared with women at increased CHD risk, women with documented CHD had higher cardiovascular risk scores, a higher prevalence of abnormal electrocardiograms, greater use of cardiovascular medications, were more likely to have had cardiac rehabilitation, and were more likely to have previously used estrogen or oral contraceptives, but had a slightly lower prevalence of CHD risk factors such as smoking, obesity, diabetes mellitus, and systemic hypertension, and had lower serum levels of total and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. The RUTH cohort is the largest group of postmenopausal women at increased risk of CHD events ever assembled in a clinical trial, and is the first trial designed to determine the effect of a selective estrogen receptor modulator on the risk of CHD events.

Risk-benefit profile for raloxifene: 4-year data from the multiple outcomes of Raloxifene Evaluation (MORE) randomized trial

Posthoc analysis of the MORE osteoporosis treatment trial assessed risk‐benefit profile of raloxifene in 7705 postmenopausal women. A major disease outcomes global index resulted in annual rates of 1.39% and 1.83% in the raloxifene and placebo groups, respectively (HR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.62‐0.92), compatible with a favorable risk‐benefit profile for raloxifene for treating postmenopausal osteoporosis.

Post hoc analysis of data from the Multiple Outcomes of Raloxifene Evaluation (MORE) trial on the effects of three years of raloxifene treatment on glycemic control and cardiovascular disease risk factors in women with and without type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND The long-term effects of the selective estrogen-receptor modulator raloxifene hydrochloride on glycemic control and markers of cardiovascular disease risk in postmenopausal women with type 2 diabetes mellitus are unknown. OBJECTIVE The aim of this analysis was to compare the effects of 3-year treatment with raloxifene 60 mg/d versus placebo on glycemic control and markers of cardiovascular disease risk in osteoporotic postmenopausal women with and without type 2 diabetes. METHODS In this analysis, we included women from the Multiple Outcomes of Raloxifene Evaluation trial (a multicenter, double-masked trial) who were randomized to receive raloxifene 60 mg/d (n = 2557) or placebo (n = 2576). Baseline and 36-month fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and total cholesterol (TC) were measured for all participants. Glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), triglycerides (TGs), apolipoprotein (apo) A-I, apo B, and fibrinogen were assessed in approximately 1800 participants from selected larger sites. RESULTS At baseline, 202 of all 5133 women (3.9%) had type 2 diabetes. Of the approximately 1800 women who were assessed for HbA1c, LDL-C, TGs, apo A-I, apo B, and fibrinogen, 70 (3.9%) had type 2 diabetes at baseline. Compared with placebo, raloxifene did not significantly affect HbA1c, FPG, HDL-C, or TGs in women with or without diabetes. Raloxifene produced statistically significant reductions in TC, LDL-C, and fibrinogen both in women with diabetes (all P < or = 0.004) and without diabetes (all P < 0.001). Raloxifene significantly increased apo A-I (P < 0.001) and reduced apo B (P < 0.001) in women without diabetes. In the raloxifene-treated group, body weight increased by a mean 0.31 kg (P < 0.001) in women without diabetes. CONCLUSIONS In osteoporotic postmenopausal women with or without type 2 diabetes, raloxifene 60 mg/d did not affect glycemic control and had favorable effects on TC, LDL-C, and fibrinogen levels.

Year-by-year analysis of cardiovascular events in the Multiple Outcomes of Raloxifene Evaluation (MORE) trial

ABSTRACT Objective: To assess the effect of raloxifene 60 mg/day (RLX) on year-by-year cardiovascular (CV) events in postmenopausal women participating in the Multiple Outcomes of Raloxifene Evaluation (MORE) trial, a double-blind, placebo-controlled osteoporosis treatment trial. Research design and methods: Post hoc analysis, using data from participants receiving placebo (N = 2576) or RLX 60 mg/day (N = 2557) in MORE, was performed to determine the relative risk (RR, 95% CI) of CV events in each individual trial year. Analyses were performed for the overall cohort and for women in high and low risk subsets. Women were retrospectively assessed as high CV risk using established criteria and the remaining women were considered low CV risk. Results: The incidence of CV events did not differ between the RLX and placebo groups in the overall cohort (RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.64–1.15), or the low CV risk subset (RR 1.01, 95% CI 0.70–1.46). In the high-risk subset, the incidence of CV events was less in the RLX group (RR 0.60, 95% CI 0.38–0.95). There was no significant increase in CV risk during any single year in the RLX group for either the overall cohort or the low or high CV risk subsets. Conclusion: In this post hoc analysis, the risk of CV events was not increased in any single year of MORE in women taking RLX, either in the overall cohort or in the low and high CV risk subsets.

Effects of raloxifene and hormone replacement therapy on markers of serum atherogenicity in healthy postmenopausal women.

OBJECTIVE To determine the effect of raloxifene (RLX) and hormone replacement therapy (HRT) on non-high density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-C) levels and the apolipoprotein-B/apolipoprotein-A1 (apo-B/apo-A1) concentration ratio, markers of serum atherogenicity, in postmenopausal women. METHODS Three hundred and ninety healthy postmenopausal women aged 45-72 years were enrolled in a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled, parallel trial at eight outpatient sites in the United States. Women were randomly assigned to receive continuous combined HRT (0.625 mg/day conjugated equine estrogen and 2.5 mg/day medroxyprogesterone acetate), 60 or 120 mg/day raloxifene, or placebo for 6 months. Serum concentrations of non-HDL cholesterol and the apo-B/apo-A1 concentration ratio were measured in serum samples obtained at baseline and at 6 months of treatment. RESULTS At 6 months, non-HDL-C and apo-B/apo-A1 were significantly reduced by 60 mg/day RLX (10 and 11%, respectively), 120 mg/day RLX (9 and 12%, respectively) and HRT (10 and 12%, respectively), compared with placebo. The effect of all treatments to lower non-HDL-C and apo-B/apo-A1 was greatest in women with hypercholesterolemia (total-C>240 mg/dl) at baseline. Among women with undesirable (>160 mg/dl) non-HDL cholesterol at baseline, RLX and HRT lowered the percentage of these women remaining above this threshold after 6 months (placebo, 89%; 60 mg/day RLX, 61%; 120 mg/day RLX, 74%; HRT, 58%). Similar results were observed for women with high (>190 mg/dl) non-HDL cholesterol at baseline. CONCLUSION In healthy postmenopausal women, RLX and HRT lower serum non-HDL-C and apo-B/apo-A1, indicators of serum atherogenicity, to a similar extent.

International INtegrated Database for the Evaluation of severe sePsis and drotrecogin alfa (activated) THerapy: component trials and statistical methods for INDEPTH.

ABSTRACT Objectives: To better understand the effects of drotrecogin alfa (activated) (DrotAA) in severe sepsis patients, and the natural progression of severe sepsis, by creating a database of severe sepsis patients using the appropriate statistical analysis methods to integrate data from various trials. Patients and methods: Patient-level data from five severe sepsis trials, conducted by the same sponsor (Eli Lilly and Company, Indianapolis, IN, USA), were combined in an integrated database. Patients from various studies were included and received either DrotAA at 24 μg/kg/h for 96 hours ( n = 3228) or placebo ( n = 1231), in addition to standard supportive care. The following adjustments to the analyses were made to allow for the combined, and thus non-randomized, nature of the data: (1) differences in observed outcomes between studies were investigated to assess the extent of study-to-study variation before combining study-level data across trials for statistical analysis; (2) random study effects were included in models for patient-level data to capture potential extraneous study-to-study variation; and (3) propensity scores were computed and included as covariates in models for patient-level data to adjust for the non-randomized nature of the data. Results: Baseline characteristics were similar across the studies, supporting the combination of study-level data across trials. Comparing aggregate event rates between the two treatment arms yielded a relative risk for mortality (DrotAA versus placebo) of 0.79 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.71–0.88), p < 0.0001. For patient-level analyses, after adjustment for 13 independent variables and random study effects, the odds ratio for mortality in the DrotAA versus placebo patients was 0.71 (95% CI 0.59–0.86), p = 0.0003. With adjustment for 13 independent variables and propensity score, the odds ratio was 0.79 (95% CI 0.67–0.93), p = 0.006. Limitations of this integrated database include the modest total number of the trials in the database and the fact that only one component trial in the database contributed data from both placebo and DrotAA-treated patients. Summary: A robust severe sepsis database was developed which will be suitable for future studies on the progression of severe sepsis and the mechanism of action of DrotAA. Initial analysis of data from INDEPTH provides additional evidence that treatment of severe sepsis patients with DrotAA is associated with a sustained survival advantage throughout 28‐day follow-up.

Prognostic Factor Analysis of Overall Survival in Gastric Cancer from Two Phase III Studies of Second-line Ramucirumab (REGARD and RAINBOW) Using Pooled Patient Data

Purpose To identify baseline prognostic factors for survival in patients with disease progression, during or after chemotherapy for the treatment of advanced gastric or gastroesophageal junction (GEJ) cancer. Materials and Methods We pooled data from patients randomized between 2009 and 2012 in 2 phase III, global double-blind studies of ramucirumab for the treatment of advanced gastric or GEJ adenocarcinoma following disease progression on first-line platinum- and/or fluoropyrimidine-containing therapy (REGARD and RAINBOW). Forty-one key baseline clinical and laboratory factors common in both studies were examined. Model building started with covariate screening using univariate Cox models (significance level=0.05). A stepwise multivariable Cox model identified the final prognostic factors (entry+exit significance level=0.01). Cox models were stratified by treatment and geographic region. The process was repeated to identify baseline prognostic quality of life (QoL) parameters. Results Of 1,020 randomized patients, 953 (93%) patients without any missing covariates were included in the analysis. We identified 12 independent prognostic factors of poor survival: 1) peritoneal metastases; 2) Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance score 1; 3) the presence of a primary tumor; 4) time to progression since prior therapy <6 months; 5) poor/unknown tumor differentiation; abnormally low blood levels of 6) albumin, 7) sodium, and/or 8) lymphocytes; and abnormally high blood levels of 9) neutrophils, 10) aspartate aminotransferase (AST), 11) alkaline phosphatase (ALP), and/or 12) lactate dehydrogenase (LDH). Factors were used to devise a 4-tier prognostic index (median overall survival [OS] by risk [months]: high=3.4, moderate=6.4, medium=9.9, and low=14.5; Harrells C-index=0.66; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.64–0.68). Addition of QoL to the model identified patient-reported appetite loss as an independent prognostic factor. Conclusions The identified prognostic factors and the reported prognostic index may help clinical decision-making, patient stratification, and planning of future clinical studies.

Predictive Probability of Success and the Assessment of Futility in Large Outcomes Trials

We consider a class of futility rules based on a Bayesian approach for computing the predictive probability of success for large clinical trials, given a certain amount of observed data. This paper focuses on outcomes trials in particular, thus we are concerned with binary response variables. The proposed method determines the likelihood of observing a statistically significant treatment effect at the end of a study, conditional on the data observed at an interim time point and assuming that event rates governing future observations follow beta distributions. In particular, the prior distributions for the event rates of interest are updated based on the observed data at an interim time point, such that means and variances are intuitive functions of the data. Computational aspects will be discussed for the case in which event counts are functions of sample size and event rates only, and for situations in which they are functions of sample size, event rates, and exposure duration. We will discuss appropriate thresholds for declaring futility based on this approach, and the potential impact of overdispersion, a common phenomenon particularly in global outcomes trials.

On the correspondence between population-averaged models and a class of cluster-specific models for correlated binary data

The relationship between marginal (population-averaged) models for cluster-correlated binary data, and a class of cluster-specific, logistic-normal random effects models is discussed. We show that random effects models can accomplish the same end as a more direct modelling of intra-cluster correlation, as in GEE.