Andreas Sterl

On the (In)Homogeneity of Reanalysis Products

Abstract The homogeneity of the ECMWF 40-yr Re-Analysis (ERA-40) is assessed. This is done by comparing ERA-40 data with results from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis and also by investigating a known relationship between a modeled (latent heat flux) and an external (SST) quantity. The direct comparison between the two reanalyses reveals a lot of inhomogeneities. They occur mainly in the Southern Hemisphere and before 1980. While observational density was sufficient to effectively constrain the models in the Northern Hemisphere, it was not in the Southern Hemisphere. From the investigation of the relationship between latent heat flux and SST it is found that, because of an increasing amount of data, the reanalysis results become more reliable toward the end of the reanalysis period (approximately after 1980). When using the reanalysis data to investigate climate change issues care has to be taken not to confuse the inhomogeneities with real changes.

A Global View on the Wind Sea and Swell Climate and Variability from ERA-40

In this paper a detailed global climatology of wind sea and swell parameters, based on the ERA-40 wave reanalysis, is presented. The spatial pattern of the swell dominance of the Earth’s Oceans, in ...

Validation of ocean wind and wave data using triple collocation

[1] Significant wave height and wind speed fields from ERA-40 are validated against buoy, ERS-1, and Topex altimeter measurements. To do so, we propose and apply a triple collocation statistical model. The model takes into account the random errors in observations and model results and allows the estimation of the variances of the errors. We first examine the case where the random errors of the different systems are independent, but situations where independence is not strictly observed are also considered. The results show that the ERA-40 predictions underestimate high values of significant wave height and, contrary to what would be obtained by less sophisticated statistical methods, wind speed, that the variance of the errors associated with the ERA-40 system is much higher than that of the errors of the measurements, and that the former shows a dependence on the value of the observations not present in the latter. The altimeter measurements of significant wave height are very precise, in contrast to the large uncertainty associated with the altimeter retrieved wind speeds.

Response of the Atlantic overturning circulation to South Atlantic sources of buoyancy

The heat and salt input from the Indian to Atlantic Oceans by Agulhas Leakage is found to influence the Atlantic overturning circulation in a low-resolution Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM). The model used is the Hamburg Large-Scale Geostrophic (LSG) model, which is forced by mixed boundary conditions. Agulhas Leakage is parameterized by sources of heat and salt in the upper South Atlantic Ocean, which extend well into the intermediate layers. It is shown that the model’s overturning circulation is sensitive to the applied sources of heat and salt. The response of the overturning strength to changes in the source amplitudes is mainly linear, interrupted once by a stepwise change. The South Atlantic buoyancy sources influence the Atlantic overturning strength by modifying the basin-scale meridional density and pressure gradients. The non-linear, stepwise response is caused by abrupt changes in the convective activity in the northern North Atlantic. Two additional experiments illustrate the adjustment of the overturning circulation upon sudden introduction of heat and salt sources in the South Atlantic. The North Atlantic overturning circulation responds within a few years after the sources are switched on. This is the time it takes for barotropic and baroclinic Kelvin waves to reach the northern North Atlantic in this model. The advection of the anomalies takes three decades to reach the northern North Atlantic. The model results give support to the hypothesis that the re-opening of the Agulhas Gap at the end of the last ice-age, as indicated by palaeoclimatological data, may have stimulated the coincident strengthening of the Atlantic overturning circulation. D 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Intercomparison of Different Wind–Wave Reanalyses

Abstract This paper describes the comparison of wind speed and significant wave height data from several reanalyses. The data are assessed against time-averaged altimeter and buoy measurements. The comparisons between the datasets are made in terms of description of short-scale features, monthly means, and long-scale features— namely trends and variability. The results show that although the quality of the datasets in terms of their comparisons with observations differs, most of the long-scale features are equally present in all datasets. The differences between the several wave datasets are larger than those between the wind speed datasets; moreover, differences in wave datasets exist even when the forcing winds used to produce the different wave reanalyses are the same. Most of the discrepancies between the datasets occur in the Tropics, testifying that the physics in that region is still poorly known. The data before the mid-1980s show significant discrepancies also in the Southern Hemisphere, most of ...

Fifteen years of global wave hindcasts using winds from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis: Validating the reanalyzed winds and assessing the wave climate

The ERA (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis) project resulted in a homogeneous data set describing the atmosphere over a time span of 15 years, from 1979 to 1993. To validate (part of) these data against independent observations we use the ERA surface winds to drive the WAM wave model. The modeled significant wave heights are then compared with observations. From this comparison the quality of the forcing winds is assessed. The patterns of computed wave heights agree well with observed patterns, and they are of the right magnitude. This confirms the realistic nature of the ERA winds. If one looks in detail, it appears that the significant wave heights resulting from the model are systematically lower than the observed ones in areas of high winds and waves and higher in areas of low winds and waves. It is argued that underestimation at high winds speeds is most likely a resolution effect, as wind and thus wave peaks are missed by finite resolution in space and time, while overestimation at low wind speeds most likely results from internal WAM errors. It is concluded that the monthly mean ERA winds are slightly (less than 5%) too low in areas of high winds, while from this study it is not possible to draw a decisive conclusion on the quality of ERA winds at low wind speeds. At the same time, the hindcast data form a 15-year climatology of global waves. This climatology is analyzed in terms of annual cycle and trends. The largest trends in significant wave height occur in the North Atlantic with an increase of more than 12 cm/yr in January, and south of Africa where the increasing trend exceeds 7 cm/yr in July. These trends, however, are only marginally significant. Furthermore, they exhibit a large month-to-month variability, so that on a seasonal basis the trends are significant only in small parts of the ocean. In conclusion, we are unable to confirm a significant change in wave height during the ERA period.

Assessment of the reliability of wave observations from Voluntary Observing Ships: insights from the validation of a global wind wave climatology based on Voluntary Observing Ship data

This paper describes development and validation of a global climatology of basic wave parameters based on the voluntary observing ship (VOS) data from the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set collection. Climatology covers the period 1958–1997 and presents heights and periods for the wind sea, swell, and significant wave height (SWH) over the global ocean on 2° × 2° spatial resolution. Significant wave height has been derived from separate sea and swell estimates by taking square root of the sum of squares for the seas and swells propagating approximately in the same direction and assuming SWH to be equal to the higher of the two components in all other cases. Special algorithms of corrections were applied to minimize some biases, inherent in visual wave data. Particularly, we corrected overestimation of small seas, corrected underestimation of periods, and analyzed separation between sea and swell. Validation included estimation of random observational errors, observation of sampling errors, and comparison with the alternative wave data. Estimates of random observational errors show that for the majority of locations, observational uncertainties are within 20% of mean values, which allows us to discuss quantitatively the produced climatology. Biases associated with inadequate sampling were quantified using the data from high-resolution WAM hindcast for the period 1979–1993. The highest sampling biases are observed in the South Ocean, where wave height may be underestimated by 1–1.5 m because of poor sampling, primarily associated with a fair weather bias of ship routing and observation. Comparison to the other VOS-based products shows in general higher SWH in our climatology, especially in the midlatitudes. However, comparison with the altimeter data shows that even for well-sampled regions, high waves are still underestimated in VOS, suggesting a ubiquitous fair weather bias. Further ways of improving VOS-based wave climatologies and possible applications are discussed.

A look at the ocean in the EC-Earth climate model

EC-Earth is a newly developed global climate system model. Its core components are the Integrated Forecast System (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) as the atmosphere component and the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) developed by Institute Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) as the ocean component. Both components are used with a horizontal resolution of roughly one degree. In this paper we describe the performance of NEMO in the coupled system by comparing model output with ocean observations. We concentrate on the surface ocean and mass transports. It appears that in general the model has a cold and fresh bias, but a much too warm Southern Ocean. While sea ice concentration and extent have realistic values, the ice tends to be too thick along the Siberian coast. Transports through important straits have realistic values, but generally are at the lower end of the range of observational estimates. Exceptions are very narrow straits (Gibraltar, Bering) which are too wide due to the limited resolution. Consequently the modelled transports through them are too high. The strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is also at the lower end of observational estimates. The interannual variability of key variables and correlations between them are realistic in size and pattern. This is especially true for the variability of surface temperature in the tropical Pacific (El Niño). Overall the ocean component of EC-Earth performs well and helps making EC-Earth a reliable climate model.

Projection of Global Wave Climate Change toward the End of the Twenty-First Century

AbstractWind-generated waves at the sea surface are of outstanding importance for both their practical relevance in many aspects, such as coastal erosion, protection, or safety of navigation, and for their scientific relevance in modifying fluxes at the air–sea interface. So far, long-term changes in ocean wave climate have been studied mostly from a regional perspective with global dynamical studies emerging only recently. Here a global wave climate study is presented, in which a global wave model [Wave Ocean Model (WAM)] is driven by atmospheric forcing from a global climate model (ECHAM5) for present-day and potential future climate conditions represented by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) A1B emission scenario. It is found that changes in mean and extreme wave climate toward the end of the twenty-first century are small to moderate, with the largest signals being a poleward shift in the annual mean and extreme significant wave heights in the midlatitudes of both hemispheres, more...

Structure and Predictability of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation Phenomenon in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Model

Abstract The space-time structure and predictability of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon was investigated. Two comprehensive datasets were analyzed by means of an advanced statistical method, one based on observational data and the other on data derived from an extended-range integration performed with a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. It is shown that a considerable portion of the ENSO-related low-frequency climate variability in both datasets is associated with a cycle involving slow propagation in the equatorial oceanic beat content and the surface wind field. The existence of this cycle implies the ability of climate predictions in the tropics up to lead times of about one year. This is shown by conducting an ensemble of predictions with our coupled general circulation model. For the first time a coupled model of this type was successfully applied to ENSO predictions.