Andreas Westermark

Monetary Policy and Staggered Wage Bargaining When Prices are Sticky

In this paper, we outline a baseline DSGE model which enables a straightforward analysis of wage bargaining between firms and households/unions in a model with both staggered prices and wages. Relying on empirical evidence, we assume that prices can be changed whenever wages are changed. This feature of the model greatly reduces the complexity of the price and wage setting decisions; specifically it removes complicated interdependencies between current and future price and wage decisions. In an application of the model we study the interaction between labor-market institutions and monetary policy choices, and the consequences for welfare outcomes. Specifically, we focus on the relative bargaining power of unions. We find that, for a standard specification of the monetary policy rule, welfare is substantially affected by the degree of relative bargaining power, but that this effect can be neutralized by optimal discretionary policy.

Long-Term Relationship Bargaining

We analyze a bargaining model where there is a long-term relationship between a seller and a buyer and there is bargaining over a sequence of surpluses that arrives at fixed points in time. Markov Perfect Equilibria are analyzed and equilibrium payoffs characterized. The transfers between the players can be described as a first-order system of difference equations. Payoffs depend on both current and future surpluses. Future surpluses are important partly because the risk of separation leads to the loss of surplus today and in the future and partly because delay without separation can last into future periods. We also find conditions for existence and uniqueness of equilibria with immediate agreement.

Optimal Monetary Policy Under Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity

We develop a New Keynesian model with staggered price and wage setting where downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) arises endogenously through the wage bargaining institutions. It is shown that the optimal (discretionary) monetary policy response to changing economic conditions then becomes asymmetric. Interestingly, we find that the welfare loss is actually slightly smaller in an economy with DNWR. This is due to that DNWR is not an additional constraint on the monetary policy problem. Instead, it is a constraint that changes the choice set and opens up for potential welfare gains due to lower wage variability. Another finding is that the Taylor rule provides a fairly good approximation of optimal policy under DNWR. In contrast, this result does not hold in the unconstrained case. In fact, under the Taylor rule, agents would clearly prefer an economy with DNWR before an unconstrained economy ex ante.

Un-Truncating VARs

Macroeconomic research often relies on structural vector autoregressions to uncover empirical regularities. Critics argue the method goes awry due to lag truncation: short lag-lengths imply a poor approximation to DSGE-models. Empirically, short lag-length is deemed necessary as increased parametrization induces excessive uncertainty. The paper shows that this argument is incomplete. Longer lag-length simultaneously reduces misspecification, which in turn reduces variance. For data generated by frontier DSGE-models long-lag VARs are feasible, reduce bias and variance, and have better coverage. Thus, contrary to conventional wisdom, the trivial solution to the critique actually works.

Labor-Market Frictions and Optimal Inflation

In central theories of monetary non-neutrality the Ramsey optimal inflation rate varies between the negative of the real interest rate and zero. This paper explores how the interaction of nominal wage and search and matching frictions affect the policy prescription. We show that adding the combination of such frictions to the canonical monetary model can generate an optimal inflation rate that is significantly positive. Specifically, for a standard U.S. calibration, we find a Ramsey optimal inflation rate of 1.11 percent per year.