Andrei Rogers

MATRIX ANALYSIS OF INTERREGIONAL POPULATION GROWTH AND DISTRIBUTION

In this introduction of the interregional dimension into the emerging theory of mathematical demography, the vehicle is matrix algebra and the focus is upon a simultaneous consideration of the spatial and temporal aspects of population processes. The author draws on the notational and analytical advantages conferred by matrix algebra to develop insights that are obscured or unobtainable with conventional methods of analysis. He then considers several of the more interesting theoretical and practical questions to which his approach leads.

Model Migration Schedules and Their Applications

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Forecasting mortality: a parameterized time series approach.

This paper considers and contrasts two alternative approaches for capturing the regularities exhibited by age patterns in observed migration rates. The mortality approach is considered first and it is shown how such an approach may be used to infer migration flows from two consecutive place-of-residence-by-place-of-birth census age distributions. The fertility approach is considered next, and techniques for graduating migration age profiles are described. The advantages and disadvantages of both approaches are then briefly assessed.

Active life among the elderly in the United States: multistate life-table estimates and population projections.

This article links parameterized model mortality schedules with time series methods to develop forecasts of U.S. mortality to the year 2000. The use of model mortality schedules permits a relatively concise representation of the history of mortality by age and sex from 1900 to 1985, and the use of modern time series methods to extend this history forward to the end of this century allows for a flexible modeling of trend and the accommodation of changes in long-run mortality patterns. This pilot study demonstrates that the proposed procedure produces medium-range forecasts of mortality that meet the standard tests of accuracy in forecast evaluation and that are sensible when evaluated against the comparable forecasts produced by the Social Security Administration.

Disability-Free Life among the Elderly in the United States: Sociodemographic Correlates of Functional Health

Calculations of multistate life expectancy not only measure how long a population may live beyond a certain age, but also what fractions of this continuing lifetime will be spent in an independent or dependent status. Many Americans aged 70 and over are leading long, active lives; large numbers of individuals who become dependent, moreover, do so temporarily and return to independent status. Men and women have disparate total and active life expectancies, however, reflecting differential survival patterns and varying rates of transition among statuses. Policy makers must consider the increased size of the future elderly population, and changes in its age composition and functional status, when planning relevant health services.

Age patterns of elderly migration: An international comparison

This article examines the sociodemographic factors associated not only with the length but also the quality of life. Although much research has examined dependency or the reliance on other individuals or institutions, this analysis instead focuses on difficulty in performing activities of daily living. The authors employ logit analysis and the Longitudinal Study of Aging data set to examine the sociodemographic factors-age, sex, race, education, poverty status, and marital status-that affect the prevalence of disability and the transitions that arise between the able and disabled states. Findings show that age is linked with disability: Older respondents are more likely to be or to become disabled and less likely to recover from their disabilities. Education is also strongly linked with disability: More highly educated elderly consistently enjoy less disability; if disabled, they generally have greater chances to regain their abilities. Race and sex are key variables: Disability varies by race and sex groups; further, within race/sex subpopulations, disability is differentially affected by other covariates, especially marital status and poverty. Therefore, it is crucial to examine disability not only for the total elderly population but to appreciate different disability characteristics among race- and sex-specific subpopulations. These social, demographic, and economic factors identify characteristics that place the elderly at risk of disability, and they also identify those characteristics that enhance an individuals chances of successful aging.

General Versus Elderly Interstate Migration and Population Redistribution in the United States

Age-specific rates of migration exhibit remarkably persistent regularities in age profile. These regularities seem to hold all over the world and across time. This article identifies some of the principal antecedents of such regularities, focusing especially on the age patterns of migration exhibited by the elderly. It examines the differentials introduced by gender, distance, and marital status.

The Internal Migration and Spatial Redistribution of the Foreign-Born Population in the United States: 1965-70 and 1975-80.

This article describes recent patterns of interstate migration in the United States for the general population and contrasts them with those of the elderly population. An analysis of age-specific migration rates, of multiregional life tables, and of population projections illuminates the process of interregional redistribution of both populations and supports the findings of studies of elderly migration that have identified the remarkably dominant position held by the three retirement destination states of Florida, California, and Arizona.

Forecasting cause-specific mortality using time series methods

This article examines the importance of place of birth on the internal migration and spatial redistribution patterns of the foreign-born population in the United States during the 1965–70 and the 1975–80 periods, relying principally on the Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) files for our input data. The diverse nationalities are aggregated into eight different regions of origin: Mexico, Puerto Rico, Rest of South and Central America, Europe, Asia, Africa and Oceania, Canada and the Rest of the World. First, the regional distribution of these eight groups at the 1970 and 1980 censuses are examined. Next, the spatial redistribution of the foreign-born population and its changes over time are studied. The age patterns of migration for the different foreign-born groups are analyzed, and the article concludes by examining decadal changes in redistributional tendencies using multiregional life table analyses.

The multiregional matrix growth operator and the stable interregional age structure

Abstract Age profiles of cause-specific mortality for five leading causes of death are represented by parameterized mortality schedules. Such schedules are estimated for males and females over the period 1960–1985. The resulting time series of parameters are modeled as ARIMA processes, and parameter forecasts from these models yield forecasts of the complete age profile of mortality-by-cause. Forecasted profiles for most causes show satisfactory mean absolute percent errors and Theil statistics, with improvements relative to trend extrapolation methods at the longer forecast horizons.