Andrés Navarro

On the Optimal Measuring Area for Pointwise Rainfall Estimation: A Dedicated Experiment with 14 Laser Disdrometers

AbstractLaser disdrometers measure the particle size distribution (PSD) of hydrometeors through a small cross-sectional (tens of square centimeters) surface. Such a limited area induces a sampling effect in the estimates of the PSD, which translates to error in the reflectivity–rain-rate (Z–R) relationship used for ground radar estimates of rainfall, estimates of kinetic energy of precipitation, and any other hydrometeorological application relying on particle size information. Here, the results of a dedicated experiment to estimate the extent of the effect of limited area sampling of rainfall are presented. Using 14 Parsivel, version 1 (Parsivel-1), disdrometers placed within 6 m2, it was found that the combined area of at least seven disdrometers is required for the estimates to start converging to a stable value. The results can be used to quantify the degree of over-/underestimation of precipitation parameters for a single instrument due to the limited collecting area effect. It has been found that a ...

Objective Characterization of Rain Microphysics: Validating a Scheme Suitable for Weather and Climate Models

AbstractImproving the atmospheric component of hydrological models is beneficial for applications such as water resources assessment and hydropower operations. Within this goal, precise characteriz...

Coupling population dynamics with earth system models: the POPEM model

Precise modeling of CO2 emissions is important for environmental research. This paper presents a new model of human population dynamics that can be embedded into ESMs (Earth System Models) to improve climate modeling. Through a system dynamics approach, we develop a cohort-component model that successfully simulates historical population dynamics with fine spatial resolution (about 1°×1°). The population projections are used to improve the estimates of CO2 emissions, thus transcending the bulk approach of existing models and allowing more realistic non-linear effects to feature in the simulations. The module, dubbed POPEM (from Population Parameterization for Earth Models), is compared with current emission inventories and validated against UN aggregated data. Finally, it is shown that the module can be used to advance toward fully coupling the social and natural components of the Earth system, an emerging research path for environmental science and pollution research.

Variability of Microwave Scattering in a Stochastic Ensemble of Measured Rain Drops

While it has been proved that multiple scattering in the microwave frequencies has to be accounted for in precipitation retrieval algorithms, the effects of the random arrangements of drops in space has seldom been investigated. The fact is, a single rain drop size distribution (RDSD) corresponds with many actual 3D distributions of those rain drops and each of those may a priori absorb and scatter radiation in a different way. Each spatial configuration is equivalent to any other in terms of the RDSD function, but not in terms of radiometric characteristics, both near and far from field, because of changes in the relative phases among the particles. Here, using the T-matrix formalism, we investigate the radiometric variability of two ensembles of 50 different 3D, stochastically-derived configurations from two consecutive measured RDSDs with 30 and 31 drops, respectively. The results show that the random distribution of drops in space has a measurable but apparently small effect in the scattering calculations with the exception of the asymmetry factor.

Estimates of the Change in the Oceanic Precipitation Off the Coast of Europe due to Increasing Greenhouse Gas Emissions

This paper presents a consensus estimate of the changes in oceanic precipitation off the coast of Europe under increasing greenhouse gas emissions. An ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) and three gauge and satellite-derived observational precipitation datasets are compared. While the fit between the RCMs’ simulation of current climate and the observations shows the consistency of the future-climate projections, uncertainties in both the models and the measurements need to be considered to generate a consensus estimate of the potential changes. Since oceanic precipitation is one of the factors affecting the thermohaline circulation, the feedback mechanisms of the changes in the net influx of freshwater from precipitation are relevant not only for improving oceanic-atmospheric coupled models but also to ascertain the climate signal in a global warming scenario.

Decorrelation of Satellite Precipitation Estimates in Space and Time

Precise estimates of precipitation are required for many environmental tasks, including water resources management, improvement of numerical model outputs, nowcasting and evaluation of anthropogenic impacts on global climate. Nonetheless, the availability of such estimates is hindered by technical limitations. Rain gauge and ground radar measurements are limited to land, and the retrieval of quantitative precipitation estimates from satellite has several problems including the indirectness of infrared-based geostationary estimates, and the low orbit of those microwave instruments capable of providing a more precise measurement but suffering from poor temporal sampling. To overcome such problems, data fusion methods have been devised to take advantage of synergisms between available data, but these methods also present issues and limitations. Future improvements in satellite technology are likely to follow two strategies. One is to develop geostationary millimeter-submillimeter wave soundings, and the other is to deploy a constellation of improved polar microwave sensors. Here, we compare both strategies using a simulated precipitation field. Our results show that spatial correlation and RMSE would be little affected at the monthly scale in the constellation, but that the precise location of the maximum of precipitation could be compromised; depending on the application, this may be an issue.