Andrew Benito

Does job insecurity affect household consumption

The paper confronts a key implication of the precautionary model of saving/consumption, using micro-data on British households. The results provide support for the key proposition that job insecurity a.ects consumption. A one standard deviation increase in unemployment risk for the head of household is estimated to reduce consumption by 2.7 per cent. This e.ect is greater for the young, those without non-labour income and manual workers-for whom precautionary e.ects might be expected to be stronger a priori. Consumer durables purchases are also found to be inversely related to unemployment risk

Hard Times or Great Expectations?: Dividend Omissions and Dividend Cuts by UK Firms

This paper uncovers an increasing proportion of quoted UK companies omitting cash dividends. Using a large panel of quoted UK companies, we estimate models for the incidence of dividend omissions and cuts as functions of financial characteristics including cash flow, leverage, investment opportunities, investment and company size. These variables account for most of the increase in omission since 1995. There is relatively little evidence to link this to the major tax reform of 1997 that abolished tax refunds on dividend income payable to tax exempt institutions. Significant persistence effects indicate companies are slow to adjust their balance sheets through dividends.

Who Withdraws Housing Equity and Why

The decision to extract home equity is examined using household‐level data for the UK over 1993–2003. At its peak during the period, around 1‐in‐10 homeowners withdraw equity per year. Little is known about this financial decision. I find that the equity withdrawal decision conforms to predictions from the standard life‐cycle framework and models that predict its use as a financial buffer. The paper also estimates responses to the large house price appreciation and significant reductions in mortgage rates seen during the period.

Financial Pressure and Balance Sheet Adjustment by Firms

This paper examines the financial policies and balance sheet adjustment of companies. Using a large panel of quoted UK firms, we estimate models for dividends, new equity issuance and investment, relating them to debt adjustment. The results suggest that while dividends are sticky in the short run, they are an important means of balance sheet adjustment in the long run. Other evidence supports the idea that companies actively target their balance sheet by variation in dividends, new equity issues and investment. There is evidence for financial pressure effects of debt-servicing costs on investment and dividends but not new equity issuance.

Housing Equity as a Buffer: Evidence from UK Households

The decision to extract home equity is examined using household-level data for the United Kingdom, 1993 to 2003. At its peak during the period, around one in ten homeowners withdrew equity per year. The paper finds that the equity withdrawal decision conforms to predictions from the standard life-cycle framework and models that predict its use as a financial buffer. The paper also estimates responses to the large house price appreciation and significant reductions in mortgage rates seen during the period. This has implications for the size of the ‘collateral channel’ and credit channel models of monetary policy.

Labour supply as a buffer: evidence from UK households

This paper examines labour supply adjustment – both hours worked and participation decisions. The analysis focuses on the response of each to financial shocks, employing data from the British Household Panel Survey. Results suggest that employees whose financial situation deteriorates relative to what they expected, increase their labour supply in response. That response is consistent with models of self-insurance that incorporate labour supply flexibility. The shock reflects several factors including financial wealth and a partner’s employment situation. The response is significantly larger for those who change job, consistent with the importance of hours constraints within jobs. The propensity to participate in the labour market also appears to respond to the financial shock but that is somewhat less robust than the hours response.

Implicit Interest Rates and Corporate Balance Sheets: An Analysis Using Aggregate and Disaggregated UK Data

Credit channel models emphasise the importance of financial variables in macroeconomic responses to unanticipated economic events. In this paper empirical models are developed that relate implicit interest rates paid by firms to measures of their financial health (principally capital gearing) using both aggregate data and information from individual company accounts. Both aggregate and disaggregated approaches confirm a significant influence on interest rates from changes in the financial health of companies. The aggregate relationship finds support for the hypothesis that implicit interest rates depend on the initial level of indebtedness in a non-linear way. The estimated equation is used within the Bank of Englands macroeconomic model (extended to incorporate the balance sheets of the corporate and household sectors) to simulate the role of the credit channel mechanism in response to shocks.