Andrew Darnton

The expected burden of mesothelioma mortality in Great Britain from 2002 to 2050.

The British mesothelioma register contains all deaths from 1968 to 2001 where mesothelioma was mentioned on the death certificate. These data were used to predict the future burden of mesothelioma mortality in Great Britain. Poisson regression analysis was used to model male mesothelioma deaths from 1968 to 2001 as a function of the rise and fall of asbestos exposure during the 20th century, and hence to predict numbers of male deaths in the years 2002–2050. The annual number of mesothelioma deaths in Great Britain has risen increasingly rapidly from 153 deaths in 1968 to 1848 in 2001 and, using our preferred model, is predicted to peak at around 1950 to 2450 deaths per year between 2011 and 2015. Following this peak, the number of deaths is expected to decline rapidly. The eventual death rate will depend on the background level and any residual asbestos exposure. Between 1968 and 2050, there will have been approximately 90 000 deaths from mesothelioma in Great Britain, 65 000 of which will occur after 2001.

Occupational, domestic and environmental mesothelioma risks in the British population: a case-control study

We obtained lifetime occupational and residential histories by telephone interview with 622 mesothelioma patients (512 men, 110 women) and 1420 population controls. Odds ratios (ORs) were converted to lifetime risk (LR) estimates for Britons born in the 1940s. Male ORs (95% confidence interval (CI)) relative to low-risk occupations for >10 years of exposure before the age of 30 years were 50.0 (25.8–96.8) for carpenters (LR 1 in 17), 17.1 (10.3–28.3) for plumbers, electricians and painters, 7.0 (3.2–15.2) for other construction workers, 15.3 (9.0–26.2) for other recognised high-risk occupations and 5.2 (3.1–8.5) in other industries where asbestos may be encountered. The LR was similar in apparently unexposed men and women (∼1 in 1000), and this was approximately doubled in exposed workers’ relatives (OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.3–3.2). No other environmental hazards were identified. In all, 14% of male and 62% of female cases were not attributable to occupational or domestic asbestos exposure. Approximately half of the male cases were construction workers, and only four had worked for more than 5 years in asbestos product manufacture.

Mortality among British asbestos workers undergoing regular medical examinations (1971-2005)

Objectives: The Great Britain Asbestos Survey was established to monitor mortality among workers covered by regulations to control occupational exposure to asbestos. This study updates the estimated burden of asbestos-related mortality in the cohort, and identifies risk factors associated with mortality. Methods: From 1971, workers were recruited during initially voluntary and later statutory medical examinations. A brief questionnaire was completed during the medical, and participants were flagged for death registrations. Standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) and proportional mortality ratios (PMRs) were calculated for deaths occurring before 2006. Poisson regression analyses were undertaken for diseases with significant excess mortality. Results: There were 15 496 deaths among 98 117 workers followed-up for 1 779 580 person-years. The SMR for all cause mortality was 141 (95% CI 139 to 143) and for all malignant neoplasms 163 (95% CI 159 to 167). The SMRs for cancers of the stomach (166), lung (187), peritoneum (3730) and pleura (968), mesothelioma (513), cerebrovascular disease (164) and asbestosis (5594) were statistically significantly elevated, as were the corresponding PMRs. In age and sex adjusted analysis, birth cohort, age at first exposure, year of first exposure, duration of exposure, latency and job type were associated with the relative risk of lung, pleural and peritoneal cancers, asbestosis and mesothelioma mortality. Conclusions: Known associations between asbestos exposure and mortality from lung, peritoneal and pleural cancers, mesothelioma and asbestosis were confirmed, and evidence of associations with stroke and stomach cancer mortality was observed. Limited evidence suggested that asbestos-related disease risk may be lower among those first exposed in more recent times.

Projection of mesothelioma mortality in Britain using Bayesian methods.

Background:Mesothelioma mortality has increased more than ten-fold over the past 40 years in Great Britain, with >1700 male deaths recorded in the British mesothelioma register in 2006. Annual mesothelioma deaths now account for >1% of all cancer deaths. A Poisson regression model based on a previous work by Hodgson et al has been fitted, which has allowed informed statistical inferences about model parameters and predictions of future mesothelioma mortality to be made.Methods:In the Poisson regression model, the mesothelioma risk of an individual depends on the average collective asbestos dose for the individual in a given year and an age-specific exposure potential. The model has been fitted to the data within a Bayesian framework using the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique, providing credible intervals for model parameters as well as prediction intervals for the number of future cases of mortality.Results:Males were most likely to have been exposed to asbestos between the ages of 30 and 49 years, with the peak year of asbestos exposure estimated to be 1963. The estimated number of background cases was 1.08 cases per million population.Conclusion:Mortality among males is predicted to peak at approximately 2040 deaths in the year 2016, with a rapid decline thereafter. Approximately 91 000 deaths are predicted to occur from 1968 to 2050 with around 61 000 of these occurring from 2007 onwards.

The Effect of Smoking on the Risk of Lung Cancer Mortality for Asbestos Workers in Great Britain (1971–2005)

OBJECTIVES Workers in the asbestos industry tend to have high smoking rates compared to the general population. Both asbestos exposure and cigarette smoking are recognized risk factors for lung cancer mortality, but the exact nature of the interaction between the two remains uncertain. The aim of this study was to examine the effect of smoking and smoking cessation among asbestos workers in Great Britain (GB) and investigate the interaction between asbestos exposure and smoking. METHODS The study population consisted of 98 912 asbestos workers recruited into the GB Asbestos Survey from 1971, followed-up to December 2005. Poisson regression was used to estimate relative risks of lung cancer mortality associated with smoking habits of the asbestos workers and to assess whether these effects differed within various categories of asbestos exposure. The interaction between asbestos exposure and smoking was examined using the Synergy (S) and Multiplicativity (V) indices, which test the hypotheses of additive and multiplicative interaction, respectively. The proportion of lung cancers among smokers attributable to the interaction of asbestos and smoking was also estimated. RESULTS During 1 780 233 person-years of follow-up, there were 1878 deaths from lung cancer (12% of all deaths). Risk of lung cancer mortality increased with packs smoked per day, smoking duration, and total smoke exposure (pack-years). Asbestos workers who stopped smoking remained at increased risk of lung cancer mortality up to 40 years after smoking cessation compared to asbestos workers who never smoked. The effects of smoking and stopping smoking did not differ by duration of asbestos exposure, main occupation, age at first asbestos exposure, year of first exposure, or latency period. The interaction between asbestos exposure and smoking for asbestos workers was greater than additive [S 1.4, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2-1.6], and the multiplicative hypothesis could not be rejected (V 0.9, 95% CI 0.3-2.4). For those asbestos workers who smoked, an estimated 26% (95% CI 14-38%) of lung cancer deaths were attributable to the interaction of asbestos and smoking. CONCLUSIONS This study emphasizes the importance of smoking prevention and cessation among those who work in the asbestos industry.

Pleural mesothelioma and lung cancer risks in relation to occupational history and asbestos lung burden

Background We have conducted a population-based study of pleural mesothelioma patients with occupational histories and measured asbestos lung burdens in occupationally exposed workers and in the general population. The relationship between lung burden and risk, particularly at environmental exposure levels, will enable future mesothelioma rates in people born after 1965 who never installed asbestos to be predicted from their asbestos lung burdens. Methods Following personal interview asbestos fibres longer than 5 µm were counted by transmission electron microscopy in lung samples obtained from 133 patients with mesothelioma and 262 patients with lung cancer. ORs for mesothelioma were converted to lifetime risks. Results Lifetime mesothelioma risk is approximately 0.02% per 1000 amphibole fibres per gram of dry lung tissue over a more than 100-fold range, from 1 to 4 in the most heavily exposed building workers to less than 1 in 500 in most of the population. The asbestos fibres counted were amosite (75%), crocidolite (18%), other amphiboles (5%) and chrysotile (2%). Conclusions The approximate linearity of the dose–response together with lung burden measurements in younger people will provide reasonably reliable predictions of future mesothelioma rates in those born since 1965 whose risks cannot yet be seen in national rates. Burdens in those born more recently will indicate the continuing occupational and environmental hazards under current asbestos control regulations. Our results confirm the major contribution of amosite to UK mesothelioma incidence and the substantial contribution of non-occupational exposure, particularly in women.

Asbestosis and mesothelioma among British asbestos workers (1971–2005)†

BACKGROUND Ascertainment of asbestosis and mesothelioma from underlying cause of death underestimates the burden of these diseases. The aims of this study were to estimate the true frequency of asbestosis and mesothelioma among asbestos workers in Great Britain (GB), and to identify factors associated with the risk of death with these diseases. METHODS The GB Asbestos Survey was established in 1971 to monitor long-term health outcomes among workers covered by regulations to control asbestos at work. Asbestosis and mesothelioma cases were defined by multiple cause of death, and were ascertained by identifying asbestos workers on the GB Asbestosis and Mesothelioma Registers. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated; the risks of asbestosis and mesothelioma were modeled with Poisson regression analysis. Deaths to the end of 2005 were included. RESULTS There were 15,557 deaths between 1971 and 2005 among the 98,912 workers. Altogether 477 asbestosis and 649 mesothelioma cases were identified. The SMR for all causes was 1.42, for asbestosis 51.3, and for mesothelioma 13.5. In multiply adjusted analysis, age, sex, job, and birth cohort were significantly associated with asbestosis and mesothelioma. For asbestosis year of first exposure, and for mesothelioma latency, were also statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS The asbestos workers experienced high mortality from all causes, asbestosis, and mesothelioma. There was some evidence that the risk of asbestosis and mesothelioma was lower in later birth cohorts and among those first occupationally exposed to asbestos more recently. Due to the long latency of both diseases, further follow-up is required to confirm these trends.

Mesothelioma risk from chrysotile

We welcome the appearance of the new analysis of asbestos related mortality by Loomis et al ( Occup Environ Med 2009;66:535–42) which constitutes an important addition to the available evidence. We note that the lung cancer risk from these data highlighted by the authors and based on their internal analyses is identical to that suggested as the “best estimate” in our earlier meta-analysis1: a relative risk of 1.102 per 100 f/ml.yr translates almost exactly to an excess over expected of 0.1% per f/ml.yr. The risk of mesothelioma derived from these new data is higher by a factor of 10 than that which emerged from our meta-analysis. The following …

Mortality of a cohort of workers in Great Britain with blood lead measurements

Objectives We examined the mortality of a historic cohort of workers in Great Britain with measured blood lead levels (BLLs). Methods SMRs were calculated with the population of Great Britain as the external comparator. Trends in mortality with mean and maximum BLLs and assessed lead exposure were examined using Cox regression. Results Mean follow-up length among the 9122 study participants was 29.2 years and 3466 deaths occurred. For all causes and all malignant neoplasms, the SMRs were statistically significantly raised. For disease groups of a priori interest, the SMR was significantly raised for lung cancer but not for stomach, brain, kidney, bladder or oesophageal cancers. The SMR was not increased for non-malignant kidney disease but was borderline significantly increased for circulatory diseases, for ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and cerebrovascular disease (CVD). No significant trends with exposure were observed for the cancers of interest, but for circulatory diseases and IHD, there was a statistically significant trend for increasing HR with mean and maximum BLLs. Conclusions This study found an excess of lung cancer, although the risk was not clearly associated with increasing BLLs. It also found marginally significant excesses of IHD and CVD, the former being related to mean and maximum BLLs. The finding for IHD may have been due to lead, but could also have been due to other dust exposure associated with lead exposure and possibly tobacco smoking. Further work is required to clarify this and the carcinogenicity of lead.

Cardiovascular disease mortality among British asbestos workers (1971–2005)

Objectives Asbestos is an inflammatory agent, and there is evidence that inflammatory processes are involved in the development of cardiovascular disease. Whether asbestos is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease has not been established. The objective of this study was to investigate cardiovascular disease mortality in a large cohort of workers occupationally exposed to asbestos. Methods Cardiovascular disease mortality in a cohort of 98 912 asbestos workers, with median follow-up of 19 years, was analysed. Unadjusted and smoking-adjusted standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated. The association between indicators of asbestos exposure and mortality was analysed with Poisson regression models, for deaths occurring during the period 1971–2005. Results Altogether 15 557 deaths from all causes, 1053 deaths from cerebrovascular disease and 4185 deaths from ischaemic heart disease (IHD) occurred during follow-up. There was statistically significant excess mortality from cerebrovascular disease (SMR: men 1.63, women 2.04) and IHD (SMR: men 1.39, women 1.89). Job and birth cohort were associated with the risk of cerebrovascular and IHD mortality in the Poisson regression model including sex, age, smoking status, job, cohort and duration of exposure. For IHD only, duration of exposure was also statistically significant in this model. Conclusions Cerebrovascular and IHD mortality was significantly higher among these asbestos workers than in the general population and within the cohort mortality was associated with indicators of asbestos exposure. These findings provide some evidence that occupational exposure to asbestos was associated with cardiovascular disease mortality in this group of workers.