Andrew Gissing

Accounting for variability in commercial flood damage estimation

Flooding in the business district of Kempsey, New South Wales, Australia, in 2001 allowed the collection and analysis of commercial flood damage data. Analysis indicated that direct losses were significant, totalling A

'Shelter-in-place' vs. evacuation in flash floods.

2.5 million. Data were variable owing to differences in the vulnerability of businesses to flood damage, differences in the impacts of the hazard upon businesses and survey uncertainty. Little direct relationship was found between direct commercial damage and over-floor water depth. Simple averaging and stage-damage curve loss estimation methods ignore the large variability present and result in inaccurate estimation of direct commercial damage. Probability loss estimation methods account for the variability present by assessing the chance of loss values occurring at specified depths of over-floor flooding.

The Australian Experience and the Queensland Floods of 2010–2011

This paper examines the circumstances in which a ‘shelter-in-place’ strategy may be a viable alternative to evacuation during flash floods. While evacuation remains the dominant strategy for a range of hazards, a review of the literature suggests growing awareness of the dangers associated with late evacuations and some limited consideration of shelter-in-place options. This study examines the feasibility of a shelter-in-place strategy for flash floods in Australia through: a review of literatures on evacuation, ‘sheltering-in-place’ and flood fatalities; an analysis of Australian flash flood fatalities and injuries; and interviews with flood and emergency managers. The results demonstrate that the majority of flash flood fatalities (75.7 per cent) have occurred outside when people have entered flood waters in a vehicle or on foot for a range of reasons, including to continue their intended travel, engage in recreational pursuits, continue their work, and evacuate or carry out a rescue. Interviews with emergency managers confirm that while shelter-in-place may not be the preferred option, the strategy may need to be implemented for flash floods when, due to the limited warning times, evacuation is not possible.

Motorist behaviour during the 2015 Shoalhaven floods

Flooding is the second most deadly natural hazard in Australia, after heat waves [1]. There are no indications that this will change in the near future. Mitigation is needed to manage the high flood risk. Options include: