Andrew Haldane

Systemic risk in banking ecosystems

In the run-up to the recent financial crisis, an increasingly elaborate set of financial instruments emerged, intended to optimize returns to individual institutions with seemingly minimal risk. Essentially no attention was given to their possible effects on the stability of the system as a whole. Drawing analogies with the dynamics of ecological food webs and with networks within which infectious diseases spread, we explore the interplay between complexity and stability in deliberately simplified models of financial networks. We suggest some policy lessons that can be drawn from such models, with the explicit aim of minimizing systemic risk.

Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy

This paper evaluates a class of simple monetary policy rules which feed back from explicit forecasts of future inflation - inflation forecast-based (IFB) rules. These rules aim to mimic current monetary policy practices among the inflation-targeting countries, where policy decisions are based on inflation forecasts. The rules themselves are evaluated using simulations from a small, rational expectations, open-economy macro-model. IFB rules are found to perform well in comparison with other simple rules, such as the Taylor rule. The reasons for this are: first, because they embody the lags in monetary transmission, aligning explicitly the control and the feedback variables of the policymaker; second, because IFB rules are capable of smoothing output by as much as is possible with rules which target output directly - for example, through variations in the forecast horizon; and third, because IFB rules implicitly condition on all state variables, and thus are information-efficient. For these reasons, inflation-targeting rules with an explicitly forward-looking dimension are found to take us within reach of the fully-optimal rule.

Rethinking the financial network

Zusammenfassung On 16 November 2002, the first official case of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) was recorded in Guangdong Province, China. Panic ensued. Uncertainty about its causes and contagious consequences brought many neighbouring economies across Asia to a standstill. Hotel occupancy rates in Hong Kong fell from over 80 % to less than 15 %, while among Beijing’s 5-star hotels occupancy rates fell below 2 %.

Sterling's Relationship with the Dollar and the Deutschemark: 1976-89

This paper evaluates the linkages between bilateral exchange rates using a time-varying parameter model, which can be estimated using the Kalman filter. The technique solves many of the statistical problems which arise when ordinary least squares is used to estimate currency correlation. Applying the technique to the dollar-sterling, DM-sterling, and DM-dollar bilateral exchange rates, the results suggest a market weakening (strengthening) of sterlings relationship with the dollar (DM) since the mid-1970s. Additionally, these currency linkages are shown to have undergone a number of regime shifts, suggesting that the timing of the weakening of the dollar/sterling relationship is different to that proposed by previous studies. Copyright 1991 by Royal Economic Society.

Interest rates and the channels of monetary transmission: some sectoral estimates

The monetary transmission mechanism describes the channels through which changes in monetary policy affect the policy target, price inflation. Understanding the transmission mechanism is thus central to the successful conduct of monetary policy. This paper uses a Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) methodology to uncover a number of stylised features of the monetary transmission process in the UK. In particular, close attention is paid to the role played by money and credit as intermediate channels. The possibility that the transmission mechanism may differ across sectors is allowed for by estimating separate VARs for the personal and corporate sectors. Three policy conclusions emerge. First, as suggested by Classical Theory, monetary policy is output neutral over the longer term. Second, the lags between changes in monetary policy and its effect upon prices are lengthy (at least 18 months). And third, that aggregate measures of money and credit may provide blurred signals of the impact of monetary policy in final variables. Sectoral measures of bank deposits (for companies) and bank credit (for persons) provide the more timely intermediate indicators.

Complexity theory and financial regulation

Economic policy needs interdisciplinary network analysis and behavioral modeling Traditional economic theory could not explain, much less predict, the near collapse of the financial system and its long-lasting effects on the global economy. Since the 2008 crisis, there has been increasing interest in using ideas from complexity theory to make sense of economic and financial markets. Concepts, such as tipping points, networks, contagion, feedback, and resilience have entered the financial and regulatory lexicon, but actual use of complexity models and results remains at an early stage. Recent insights and techniques offer potential for better monitoring and management of highly interconnected economic and financial systems and, thus, may help anticipate and manage future crises.

Analytics of sovereign debt restructuring

Over the past few years there has been an active debate among policy-makers on appropriate mechanisms for restructuring sovereign debt, particularly international bonds. In this paper a simple theoretical model is developed to analyse the merits of these proposals. The analysis suggests that collective action clauses (CACs) can resolve the inefficiencies caused by intra-creditor coordination problems, provided that all parties have complete information about each others preferences. In such a world, statutory mechanisms are unnecessary. This is no longer the case, however, when the benefits from reaching a restructuring agreement are private information to the debtor and its creditors. In this case, the inefficiencies induced by strategic behaviour the debtor-creditor bargaining problem cannot be resolved by the parties themselves: removing these inefficiencies would require the intervention of a third party.

Sovereign liquidity crises: analytics and implications for public policy

This paper offers an analytical framework with which to assess some recent proposals for strengthening the international financial architecture. A model is developed of sovereign liquidity crises that reflect two sources of financial stress?weak fundamentals and self-fulfilling expectations. The nature of the underlying co-ordination game is investigated, as are the properties of the unique equilibrium. In so doing, the paper characterises the welfare costs of belief-driven crises, which are found to be potentially significant. Some recent policy proposals are also evaluated, including prudent debt and liquidity management, capital controls, greater information disclosure, and the efficacy of monetary policy tightening in the midst of crisis.

CONTROL RIGHTS (AND WRONGS)

In the 2011 Wincott Lecture, the author sets out a number of structural factors that have led banks to take on too much risk. The combination of limited liability for equity holders, tax biases that favoured debt over equity, the likelihood that banks would not be allowed to fail, and performance targets linked to short‐term equity returns meant that neither debt nor equity holders had an incentive to constrain bank risk taking. A number of solutions are offered which would better align these incentives with the public good. Disclaimer: The views expressed are not necessarily those of the Bank of England or the Financial Policy Committee.

A New Approach to Assessing Risks to Financial Stability

The Bank’s July 2006 Financial Stability Report (FSR) included a new approach to assessing risks to the stability of the UK financial system. This paper explains the methodology and analysis behind this work and outlines what is being done to improve and extend it. Section 1 of the paper sets out the conceptual rationale for this approach. Section 2 describes its practical implementation in the July 2006 FSR, with further detail on methodology provided in a series of annexes. Section 3 concludes by discussing how this framework is being developed over time to improve the analysis of risks to the UK financial system and to strengthen the management of these risks by the financial sector.