Andrew Kingston

Health and disease in 85 year olds: baseline findings from the Newcastle 85+ cohort study

Objectives The Newcastle 85+ Study aims to systematically study the clinical, biological, and psychosocial attributes of an unselected cohort of 85 year olds and to examine subsequent health trajectories as the cohort ages; health at baseline is reported. Design Cross sectional analysis of baseline data from a cohort study. Setting Newcastle upon Tyne and North Tyneside primary care trusts, United Kingdom. Participants 1042 people born in 1921 and registered with the participating general practices. Main outcome measures Detailed health assessment and review of general practice records (disease, medication, and use of general practice services); participants could decline elements of the protocol. Results Of the 1453 eligible people, 851 (58.6%) were recruited to health assessment plus record review, 188 (12.9%) to record review only, and 3 (0.2%) to health assessment only. Data from record review are reported on a maximum of 1030 and from health assessment on a maximum of 853; individual denominators differ owing to withdrawal and missing values. Of the health assessment sample (n=853), 62.1% (n=530) were women and 10.4% (n=89) were in institutional care. The most prevalent diseases were hypertension (57.5%, 592/1030) and osteoarthritis (51.8%, 534/1030). Moderate or severe cognitive impairment was present in 11.7% (96/824) of participants, severe or profound urinary incontinence in 21.3% (173/813), hearing impairment in 59.6% (505/848), and visual impairment in 37.2% (309/831). Health assessment identified participants with possible disease but without a previous diagnosis in their medical record for hypertension (25.1%, 206/821), ischaemic heart disease (12.6%, 99/788), depression (6.9%, 53/772), dementia (6.7%, 56/840), and atrial fibrillation (3.8%, 30/788). Undiagnosed diabetes mellitus and thyroid disease were rare (1%, 7/717 and 6/762, respectively). A median of 3 (interquartile range 1-8) activities of daily living were undertaken with difficulty. Overall, 77.6% (646/832) of participants rated their health compared with others of the same age as good, very good, or excellent. High contact rates in the previous year with general practitioners (93.8%, 960/1024) were recorded. Women had significantly higher disease counts (medians: women 5, men 4; P=0.033) and disability scores (medians: women 4, men 2; P=0.0006) than men, but were less likely to have attended outpatient clinics in the previous three months (women 29% (150/524), men 37% (118/320), odds ratio 0.7, 95% confidence interval 0.5 to 0.9). Conclusions This large cohort of 85 year olds showed good levels of both self rated health and functional ability despite significant levels of disease and impairment. Hypertension, ischaemic heart disease, atrial fibrillation, depression, and dementia may be underdiagnosed. Notable differences were found between the sexes: women outnumbered men and had more disease and disability.

Reproducibility of telomere length assessment: an international collaborative study.

Background: Telomere length is a putative biomarker of ageing, morbidity and mortality. Its application is hampered by lack of widely applicable reference ranges and uncertainty regarding the present limits of measurement reproducibility within and between laboratories. Methods: We instigated an international collaborative study of telomere length assessment: 10 different laboratories, employing 3 different techniques [Southern blotting, single telomere length analysis (STELA) and real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR)] performed two rounds of fully blinded measurements on 10 human DNA samples per round to enable unbiased assessment of intra- and inter-batch variation between laboratories and techniques. Results: Absolute results from different laboratories differed widely and could thus not be compared directly, but rankings of relative telomere lengths were highly correlated (correlation coefficients of 0.63–0.99). Intra-technique correlations were similar for Southern blotting and qPCR and were stronger than inter-technique ones. However, inter-laboratory coefficients of variation (CVs) averaged about 10% for Southern blotting and STELA and more than 20% for qPCR. This difference was compensated for by a higher dynamic range for the qPCR method as shown by equal variance after z-scoring. Technical variation per laboratory, measured as median of intra- and inter-batch CVs, ranged from 1.4% to 9.5%, with differences between laboratories only marginally significant (P = 0.06). Gel-based and PCR-based techniques were not different in accuracy. Conclusions: Intra- and inter-laboratory technical variation severely limits the usefulness of data pooling and excludes sharing of reference ranges between laboratories. We propose to establish a common set of physical telomere length standards to improve comparability of telomere length estimates between laboratories.

Assessment of a large panel of candidate biomarkers of ageing in the Newcastle 85+ study

Sensitive and specific biomarkers of ageing are needed to evaluate interventions to extend health span. However, there is growing evidence that information provided by candidate biomarkers may change with age itself. Little is yet known about the value of candidate biomarkers in those over 85 years, currently the fastest growing population sub-group in many countries. This study assessed a large panel of candidate biomarkers in a cohort of 85 years old by studying comparative associations with health status. Using a cross-sectional sample of 852 individuals aged 85, we performed uni- and multi-variable analyses of associations between 74 candidate biomarkers and 4 health-status measures: viz. multi-morbidity, cognitive impairment, disability and proximity to death as measured by mortality within 1.5 years. We defined as most informative any measures that were significantly associated with at least two of the health-status measures in multivariable analyses in this age group. 10 out of 74 tested candidates fulfilled this criterion, while several proposed biomarkers of ageing, notably inflammation and immune risk markers and telomere length, did not. As future data accrues on health outcomes within the cohort, it will become possible also to evaluate the predictive value of these and others of the candidate biomarkers.

Losing the Ability in Activities of Daily Living in the Oldest Old: A Hierarchic Disability Scale from the Newcastle 85+ Study

Objectives To investigate the order in which 85 year olds develop difficulty in performing a wide range of daily activities covering basic personal care, household care and mobility. Design Cross-sectional analysis of baseline data from a cohort study. Setting Newcastle upon Tyne and North Tyneside, UK. Participants Individuals born in 1921, registered with participating general practices. Measurements Detailed health assessment including 17 activities of daily living related to basic personal care, household care and mobility. Questions were of the form ‘Can you …’ rather than ‘Do you…’ Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to confirm a single underlying dimension for the items and Mokken Scaling was used to determine a subsequent hierarchy. Validity of the hierarchical scale was assessed by its associations with known predictors of disability. Results 839 people within the Newcastle 85+ study for whom complete information was available on self-reported Activities of Daily Living (ADL). PCA confirmed a single underlying dimension; Mokken scaling confirmed a hierarchic scale where ‘Cutting toenails’ was the first item with which participants had difficulty and ‘feeding’ the last. The ordering of loss differed between men and women. Difficulty with ‘shopping’ and ‘heavy housework’ were reported earlier by women whilst men reported ‘walking 400 yards’ earlier. Items formed clusters corresponding to strength, balance, lower and upper body involvement and domains specifically required for balance and upper/lower limb functional integrity. Conclusion This comprehensive investigation of ordering of ability in activities in 85 year olds will inform researchers and practitioners assessing older people for onset of disability and subsequent care needs.

The Personal and Health Service Impact of Falls in 85 Year Olds: Cross-Sectional Findings from the Newcastle 85+ Cohort Study

Introduction Falls are common in older people and increase in prevalence with advancing old age. There is limited knowledge about their impact in those aged 85 years and older, the fastest growing age group of the population. We investigated the prevalence and impact of falls, and the overlap between falls, dizziness and blackouts, in a population-based sample of 85 year olds. Methods Design: Cross-sectional analysis of baseline data from Newcastle 85+ Cohort Study. Setting: Primary care, North-East England. Participants: 816 men and women aged 85 years. Measurements: Structured interview with research nurse. Cost-consequence analysis of fall-related healthcare costs. Results Over 38% (313/816) of participants had fallen at least once in the previous 12 months and of these: 10.6% (33/312) sustained a fracture, 30.1% (94/312) attended an emergency department, and 12.8% (40/312) were admitted to hospital. Only 37.2% (115/309) of fallers had specifically discussed their falls problem with their general practitioner and only 12.7% (39/308) had seen a falls specialist. The average annual healthcare cost per faller was estimated at £202 (inter-quartile range £174–£231) or US

Prevalence of left ventricular dysfunction in a UK community sample of very old people: the Newcastle 85+ study

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Improving Retention of Very Old Participants in Longitudinal Research: Experiences from the Newcastle 85+ Study

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Is late-life dependency increasing or not? A comparison of the Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies (CFAS)

377). ‘Worry about falling’ was experienced by 42.0% (128/305) of fallers, ‘loss of confidence’ by 40.0% (122/305), and ‘going out less often’ by 25.9% (79/305); each was significantly more common in women, odds ratios (95% confidence interval) for women: men of 2.63 (1.45–4.55), 4.00 (2.27–7.14), and 2.86 (1.54–5.56) respectively. Dizziness and blackouts were reported by 40.0% (318/796) and 6.4% (52/808) of participants respectively. There was marked overlap in the report of falls, dizziness and blackouts. Conclusions Falls in 85 year olds are very common, associated with considerable psychological and physical morbidity, and have high impact on healthcare services. Wider use of fall prevention services is needed. Significant expansion in acute and preventative services is required in view of the rapid growth in this age group.

The impact of visual impairment on Mini-Mental State Examination Scores in the Newcastle 85+ study

Objective Heart failure (HF) prevalence rises sharply among those aged 85 years and over. Previous population based echocardiographic studies of left ventricular (LV) dysfunction, the substrate for HF, have included only small numbers in this age group. We used domiciliary echocardiography to estimate the prevalence of LV systolic and diastolic dysfunction in 87–89 year olds and the proportion remaining undiagnosed. Design Cross sectional analysis of data from Newcastle 85+ Study. Setting Primary care, North-East England. Participants 376 men and women aged 87–89 years. Measures Domiciliary echocardiography was performed and LV systolic and diastolic function was graded. The presence of limiting dyspnoea was assessed by questionnaire. Previous diagnoses of HF were abstracted from general practice (GP) records. Results 32% of participants (119/376) had LV systolic dysfunction (ejection fraction (EF) ≤50%) and a further 20% (75/376) had moderate or severe LV diastolic dysfunction with preserved EF. Both echocardiographic assessment of LV function and dyspnoea status were available in 74% (278/376) of participants. Among these participants, limiting dyspnoea was present in approximately two thirds of those with significant (systolic or isolated moderate/severe diastolic) LV dysfunction. 84% (73/87) of participants with significant LV dysfunction and limiting dyspnoea did not have a pre-existing HF diagnosis in their GP records. Overall, 26% (73/278) of participants with both echocardiographic and dyspnoea data had undiagnosed, symptomatic, significant LV dysfunction. Conclusion Significant systolic and diastolic LV dysfunction is much commoner in community dwelling 87–89 year olds than previous studies have suggested. The majority are both symptomatic and undiagnosed.

Dementia diagnosis in primary care: thinking outside the educational box

Background People aged 85 and over are often excluded from research on the grounds of being difficult to recruit and problematic to retain. The Newcastle 85+ study successfully recruited a cohort of 854 85-year-olds to detailed health assessment at baseline and followed them up over 3 phases spanning 5 years. This paper describes the effectiveness of its retention strategies. Methods Primary retention strategies involved meticulous management of contact information and active maintenance of contact with participants between research visits and between phases of the study. For statistical analysis, data on post-inclusion attrition over the 3 follow-up phases was separated into ‘death’ and ‘withdrawal’ categories, with sub-categories ‘health’ and ‘non-health’ reasons created for ‘withdrawal’. Multinomial logistic regression was used to determine if particular socio-demographic and health characteristics were associated with post-inclusion attrition due to withdrawal at each of the 3 phase-to-phase transition points. Results For both sexes, at successive follow-up phases there was a decrease in attrition due to withdrawal and an increase due to death. Withdrawal was most prevalent between baseline and phase 2. Across the 5 years of the study total post-inclusion (post-baseline) attrition due to death accounted for a 40% (344/854) loss to cohort and total post-inclusion attrition due to withdraw a 19% (166/854) loss to cohort, with health reasons for withdrawal becoming more dominant over time. Adjusting for sex, parsimonious modelling showed only occupational class (National Statistics Socio-economic Classification) to be associated with withdrawal and only between baseline and phase 2 (routine/manual compared to managerial (OR 3.41; 95% CI [1.23 to 9.44]). Conclusion Following successful recruitment, we retained a high proportion of participants from a very old age group over 5 years of longitudinal research. No strong predictors of post-inclusion attrition due to withdrawal were found, suggesting the general effectiveness of our retention strategies.