Andrew P. Beckerman

Trophic Cascades in Terrestrial Systems: A Review of the Effects of Carnivore Removals on Plants

We present a quantitative synthesis of trophic cascades in terrestrial systems using data from 41 studies, reporting 60 independent tests. The studies covered a wide range of taxa in various terrestrial systems with varying degrees of species diversity. We quantified the average magnitude of direct effects of carnivores on herbivore prey and indirect effects of carnivores on plants. We examined how the effect magnitudes varied with type of carnivores in the study system, food web diversity, and experimental protocol. A metaanalysis of the data revealed that trophic cascades were common among the studies. Exceptions to this general trend did arise. In some cases, trophic cascades were expected not to occur, and they did not. In other cases, the direct effects of carnivores on herbivores were stronger than the indirect effects of carnivores on plants, indicating that top‐down effects attenuated. Top‐down effects usually attenuated whenever plants contained antiherbivore defenses or when herbivore species diversity was high. Conclusions about the strength of top‐down effects of carnivores varied with the type of carnivore and with the plant‐response variable measured. Vertebrate carnivores generally had stronger effects than invertebrate carnivores. Carnivores, in general, had stronger effects when the response was measured as plant damage rather than as plant biomass or plant reproductive output. We caution, therefore, that conclusions about the strength of top‐down effects could be an artifact of the plant‐response variable measured. We also found that mesocosm experiments generally had weaker effect magnitudes than open‐plot field experiments or observational experiments. Trophic cascades in terrestrial systems, although not a universal phenomenon, are a consistent response throughout the published studies reviewed here. Our analysis thus suggests that they occur more frequently in terrestrial systems than currently believed. Moreover, the mechanisms and strengths of top‐down effects of carnivores are equivalent to those found in other types of systems (e.g., aquatic environments).

BEHAVIORALLY MEDIATED TROPHIC CASCADES: EFFECTS OF PREDATION RISK ON FOOD WEB INTERACTIONS

Trophic cascades are regarded as important signals for top-down control of food web dynamics. Although there is clear evidence supporting the existence of trophic cascades, the mechanisms driving this important dynamic are less clear. Trophic cascades could arise through direct population-level effects, in which predators prey on herbivores, thereby decreasing the abundance of herbivores that impact plant trophic levels. Trophic cascades could also arise through indirect behavioral-level effects, in which herbivore prey shift their foraging behavior in response to predation risk. Such behavioral shifts can result in reduced feeding time and increased starvation risk, again lowering the impact of her- bivores on plants. We evaluated the relative importance of these two mechanisms, using field experiments in an old-field system composed of herbaceous plants, grasshopper her- bivores, and spider predators. We created two treatments, Risk spiders that had their che- licerae glued, and Predation spiders that remained unmanipulated. We then systematically evaluated the impacts of these predator manipulations at behavioral, population, and food web scales in experimental mesocosms. At the behavioral level, grasshoppers did not dis- tinguish between Risk spiders and Predation spiders. Grasshoppers exhibited significant shifts in feeding-time budget in the presence of spiders vs. when alone. At the grasshopper population level, Risk spider and Predation spider treatments caused the same level of grasshopper mortality, which was significantly higher than mortality in a control without spiders, indicating that the predation effects were compensatory to risk effects. At the food web level, Risk spider and Predation spider treatments decreased the impact grasshoppers had on grass biomass, supporting the existence of a trophic cascade. Moreover, Risk spider and Predation spider treatments produced statistically similar effects, again indicating that predation effects on trophic dynamics were compensatory to risk effects. We conclude that indirect effects resulting from antipredator behavior can produce trophic-level effects that are similar in form and strength to those generated by direct predation events.

Adaptation genomics: the next generation

Understanding the genetics of how organisms adapt to changing environments is a fundamental topic in modern evolutionary ecology. The field is currently progressing rapidly because of advances in genomics technologies, especially DNA sequencing. The aim of this review is to first briefly summarise how next generation sequencing (NGS) has transformed our ability to identify the genes underpinning adaptation. We then demonstrate how the application of these genomic tools to ecological model species means that we can start addressing some of the questions that have puzzled ecological geneticists for decades such as: How many genes are involved in adaptation? What types of genetic variation are responsible for adaptation? Does adaptation utilise pre-existing genetic variation or does it require new mutations to arise following an environmental change?

Size, foraging, and food web structure

Understanding what structures ecological communities is vital to answering questions about extinctions, environmental change, trophic cascades, and ecosystem functioning. Optimal foraging theory was conceived to increase such understanding by providing a framework with which to predict species interactions and resulting community structure. Here, we use an optimal foraging model and allometries of foraging variables to predict the structure of real food webs. The qualitative structure of the resulting model provides a more mechanistic basis for the phenomenological rules of previous models. Quantitative analyses show that the model predicts up to 65% of the links in real food webs. The deterministic nature of the model allows analysis of the models successes and failures in predicting particular interactions. Predacious and herbivorous feeding interactions are better predicted than pathogenic, parasitoid, and parasitic interactions. Results also indicate that accurate prediction and modeling of some food webs will require incorporating traits other than body size and diet choice models specific to different types of feeding interaction. The model results support the hypothesis that individual behavior, subject to natural selection, determines individual diets and that food web structure is the sum of these individual decisions.

Population dynamic consequences of delayed life-history effects

Evidence from wildlife and human populations indicates that conditions during early development can have marked effects on the subsequent performance of individuals and cohorts. Likewise, the effects of maternal and, more generally, parental environments can be transferred among individuals between generations. These delayed life-history effects are found consistently and suggestions have been made that they can be one source of both variability and of delayed density dependence in population dynamics. Assessments of several different time series indicate that population variability and delayed density dependence are common and that understanding the mechanisms giving rise to them is crucial for the interpretation and application of such models to basic and applied research. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the different ways in which history in the life history might give rise to variability and delayed density dependence in population dynamics. Here, we build on recent appraisals of the pervasive influence of past environmental conditions on current and future fitness and link the details of these life-history studies to classic features of population dynamics.

Foraging biology predicts food web complexity

Food webs, the networks of feeding links between species, are central to our understanding of ecosystem structure, stability, and function. One of the key aspects of food web structure is complexity, or connectance, the number of links expressed as a proportion of the total possible number of links. Connectance (complexity) is linked to the stability of webs and is a key parameter in recent models of other aspects of web structure. However, there is still no fundamental biological explanation for connectance in food webs. Here, we propose that constraints on diet breadth, driven by optimal foraging, provide such an explanation. We show that a simple diet breadth model predicts highly constrained values of connectance as an emergent consequence of individual foraging behavior. When combined with features of real food web data, such as taxonomic and trophic aggregation and cumulative sampling of diets, the model predicts well the levels of connectance and scaling of connectance with species richness, seen in real food webs. This result is a previously undescribed synthesis of foraging theory and food web theory, in which network properties emerge from the behavior of individuals and, as such, provides a mechanistic explanation of connectance currently lacking in food web models.

Oil pollution and climate have wide‐scale impacts on seabird demographics

Oil spills often spell disaster for marine birds caught in slicks. However, the impact of oil pollution on seabird population parameters is poorly known because oil spills usually occur in wintering areas remote from breeding colonies where birds may be distributed over a wide area, and because it is difficult to separate the effects of oil pollution from the effect of natural environmental variation on seabird populations. Using a long-term data set we show that over-winter survival of adult common guillemots (Uria aalge) is negatively affected by both the incidence of four major oil-spills in their wintering grounds and high values of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. After controlling for the effect of the NAO index, we show that winter mortality of adult guillemots is doubled by major oil pollution incidents. Our results demonstrate that oil pollution can have wide-scale impacts on marine ecosystems that can be quantified using populations of marked individuals to estimate survival.

Climate warming strengthens indirect interactions in an old‐field food web

Climate change is expected to alter trophic interactions within food chains, but predicting the fate of particular species is difficult because the predictions hinge on knowing exactly how climate influences direct and indirect interactions. We used two complementary approaches to examine how climate change may alter trophic interactions within an old-field food web composed of herbaceous plants, grasshopper herbivores, and spider predators. We synthesized data spanning 15 years of experimentation during which interannual mean growing season temperature varied by 2 degrees C and precipitation by 2.5 cm. We also manipulated temperature within mesocosms to test the affect of temperature on primary production and strength of direct and indirect trophic interactions. Both approaches produced similar results: plant production was not directly affected by temperature or precipitation, but the strength of top-down indirect effects on grasses and forbs increased by 30-40% per 1 degrees C. Hence, the net effect of climate change was to strengthen top-down control of this terrestrial system.

Changes in maternal investment in eggs can affect population dynamics

The way that mothers provision their offspring can have important consequences for their offsprings performance throughout life. Models suggest that maternally induced variation in life histories may have large population dynamical effects, even perhaps driving cycles such as those seen in forest Lepidoptera. The evidence for large maternal influences on population dynamics is unconvincing, principally because of the difficulty of conducting experiments at both the individual and population level. In the soil mite, Sancassania berlesei, we show that there is a trade-off between a females fecundity and the per-egg provisioning of protein. The mothers position on this trade-off depends on her current food availability and her age. Populations initiated with 250 eggs of different mean sizes showed significant differences in the population dynamics, converging only after three generations. Differences in the growth, maturation and fecundity of the initial cohort caused differences in the competitive environment for the next generation, which, in turn, created differences in their growth and reproduction. Maternal effects in one generation can therefore lead to population dynamical consequences over many generations. Where animals live in environments that are temporally variable, we conjecture that maternal effects could result in long-term dynamical effects.

The ecological forecast horizon, and examples of its uses and determinants

Forecasts of ecological dynamics in changing environments are increasingly important, and are available for a plethora of variables, such as species abundance and distribution, community structure and ecosystem processes. There is, however, a general absence of knowledge about how far into the future, or other dimensions (space, temperature, phylogenetic distance), useful ecological forecasts can be made, and about how features of ecological systems relate to these distances. The ecological forecast horizon is the dimensional distance for which useful forecasts can be made. Five case studies illustrate the influence of various sources of uncertainty (e.g. parameter uncertainty, environmental variation, demographic stochasticity and evolution), level of ecological organisation (e.g. population or community), and organismal properties (e.g. body size or number of trophic links) on temporal, spatial and phylogenetic forecast horizons. Insights from these case studies demonstrate that the ecological forecast horizon is a flexible and powerful tool for researching and communicating ecological predictability. It also has potential for motivating and guiding agenda setting for ecological forecasting research and development.