Andrew Peacock

Energy-efficient new housing – the UK reaches for sustainability

A critique is presented of recent proposals by the UK government to require new housing to become progressively more energy efficient, leading to net zero-carbon dioxide emissions from 2016. It is implied that these zero-carbon homes will involve a range of on-site power generation, and the technological changes needed to achieve this are discussed. Achieving zero-carbon space and water heating presents a distinct set of infrastructural challenges to the industry. However, proven and demonstrated technologies exist that, if deployed correctly, could achieve this goal. In contrast, the provision of zero net carbon electrical power to homes presents technological demands. It will require substantial advancement of current technological concepts, coupled to infrastructural change in the UK electricity supply industry, to be successful. Careful consideration should be given to the scale of the electricity-generating technologies proposed to ensure that the lowest cost and risk pathways are identified. It is not clear in the legislation proposed that these pathways will be sought. Cet article analyse des propositions récemment faites par le gouvernement du Royaume-Uni visant à ce que les nouveaux bâtiments deviennent progressivement plus efficaces sur le plan de lénergie et quà partir de 2016 ils némettent plus de CO2. Cela signifie que ces maisons sans émission de CO2 nécessiteront une palette de systèmes de génération dénergie sur site; larticle examine également les changements technologiques nécessaires pour atteindre cet objectif. Réaliser des systèmes de chauffage des locaux et des chauffe-eau sans émission de CO2 présente pour lindustrie des défis quelle devra relever en ce qui concerne les infrastructures. Toutefois, il existe des technologies qui ont fait leurs preuves et qui ont été démontrées; si elles sont mises en œuvre correctement, elles pourraient permettre datteindre cet objectif. Au contraire, la fourniture dénergie électrique nette zéro de carbone présente des difficultés technologiques. Il faudra que les concepts technologiques actuels progressent de manière importante et quils soient couplés à des modifications des infrastructures industrielles de production délectricité du Royaume-Uni. Il faudra bien prendre en considération la portée des technologies de production délectricité proposées pour sassurer que les filières présentant les coûts et les risques les moins élevés soient identifiées. Il napparaît pas clairement dans la législation proposée que ces filières seront étudiées. Mots clés: émissions de CO2, maisons, énergie renouvelable, maisons sans émission de CO2

Whole life costing of domestic energy demand reduction technologies: householder perspectives

A recent, major UK research project investigated technical and social aspects of reducing the CO2 emissions of UK domestic housing by 50% by the year 2030. As 80% of the UK housing stock that will be present in 2030 has already been built, this study aimed to research the whole life costs of three sets of energy demand reduction technologies for existing housing, over a 25‐year period, suitable to deliver significant CO2 emissions reduction up to 50%. Demand side technological interventions in the form of fabric upgrades and ventilation systems are identified. Whole life cycle analysis of interventions carried out on two housing variants prominent in the domestic stock under different energy price scenarios is carried out using discounted cash flow and compared with the do‐nothing option. The results show that, despite reducing annual energy bills, there is no clear financial case even over a 25‐year horizon for householders to invest in the proposed interventions that contribute to CO2 emission reduction targets. When discussed with respect to household income and consumption preferences, the results reveal the need for new policy approaches to overcome the financial and non‐financial hurdles for a mass uptake of energy efficient technologies.

Short term wind speed forecasting with evolved neural networks

Concerns about climate change, energy security and the volatility of the price of fossil fuels has led to an increased demand for renewable energy. With wind turbines being one of the most mature renewable energy technologies available, the global use of wind power has been growing at over 20% annually, with further adoption to be expected. As a result of the inherent variability of the wind in combination with the increased uptake, demand for accurate wind forecasting, over a wide range of time scales has also increased.n We report early work as part of the EU FP7 project ORIGIN, which will exploit wind speed forecasting, and implement and evaluate smart-meter based energy management in 300 households in three ecovillages across Europe. The ORIGIN system will capitalise on automated weatherstation data (available cheaply) to inform predictions of the wind-turbine generated power that may be available in short term future time windows. Accurate and reliable wind-speed forecasting is essential in this enterprise.n A range of different methods for wind forecasting have been developed, ranging from relatively simple time series analysis to the use of a combination of global weather forecasting, computational fluid dynamics and machine learning methods. Here we focus on the application of neural networks, without (for the time being) the use of numerical weather predictions or expensive physical modelling methods. While work of this nature has been performed before, using past wind speeds to make predictions into the future, here we explore the use of additional recent meteorological data to improve on short-term forecasting. Specifically, we employ evolved networks and explore many configurations to assess the merits of using additional features such as cloud cover, temperature and pressure, to predict future wind speed.

Co-designing the next generation of home energy management systems with lead-users

Home energy management systems are widely promoted as essential components of future low carbon economies. It is argued in this paper that assumptions surrounding their deployment, and the methods used to design them, emerge from discredited models of people and energy. This offers an explanation for why their field trial performance is so inconsistent. A first of a kind field trial is reported. Three eco communities took part in a comprehensive participatory design exercise as lead users. The challenge was to help users synchronise their energy use behaviours with the availability of locally generated renewable energy sources. To meet this aim, a set of highly novel Home Energy Management interfaces were co-designed and tested. Not only were the designs radically different to the norm, but they also yielded sustained user engagement over a six-month follow-up period. It is argued that user-centred design holds the key to unlocking the energy saving potential of new domestic technologies, and this study represents a bold step in that direction.

Smart Community Energy Systems for Low Carbon Living

In a world where the need to Mitigate against, and Adapt to, a rapidly changing climate is pressing, so too is the need to re-think the way we power our lifestyles. If we are to survive as a species we will need to substantially reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that result from our life-styles. In addition we will need to develop energy supply systems that can cope with more extreme weather conditions, keep us safe through power outages on the traditional grid systems and provide us with affordable comfort in our everyday lives. When building visions for the best possible future energy systems in a world with growing populations, limited fossil fuel resources, rising energy prices and less energy security - more individuals, communities and cities are looking to utilise autarkic principles to harvest, store and optimise use of local energy resources. Energy autarky can be described as a location that relies on its own energy resources for generating the useful energy required to sustain the society within that region or a situation in which a region does not import substantial amounts of energy resources. Functioning autarkic energy systems typically require a micro-grid, well understood energy demand and supply characteristics, opportunities for energy storage of various types and controls able to manage the harmonisation of system components. A critical additional ingredient is users who can work within constraints created by the adoption of autarkic principles. To elaborate the challenges and explore the issues involved with autarkic energy concepts this paper reports on the output from a workshop convened to investigate the role that energy autarky might play in delivering societies able to deliver the ambitious renewable generation targets set by both Scottish and UK Governments. In addition, monitored data from a community micro-grid system in Northern Scotland is analysed and presented to provide additional understanding of the complexities and opportunities created by an autarkic approach. The output from the workshop identified that whilst it is probable that a dogmatic interpretation of energy autarkic will not be universally applicable, the underlying principles represent a bottom-up way of widening participation in the development of future energy provision models. Whilst a number of issues and barriers were raised regarding its adoption, the attendees recognised that energy autarky represented a very positive and empowering vision for translating global scale issues to local energy transition. The analysis of monitored generation and demand data from a community micro-grid underlined the problems associated with supply-demand matching with intermittent generation and the need to place an emphasis on the community or entity as an open system that is able to participate in a full range of trading opportunities. Similarities were found between the types of behaviour necessary to create load responses relevant to energy networks containing large penetrations of renewable generation and communities set up based on energy autarky principles.