Andries Richter

Economic repercussions of fisheries-induced evolution

Fish stocks experiencing high fishing mortality show a tendency to mature earlier and at a smaller size, which may have a genetic component and therefore long-lasting economic and biological effects. To date, the economic effects of such ecoevolutionary dynamics have not been empirically investigated. Using 70 y of data, we develop a bioeconomic model for Northeast Arctic cod to compare the economic yield in a model in which life-history traits can vary only through phenotypic plasticity with a model in which, in addition, genetic changes can occur. We find that evolutionary changes toward faster growth and earlier maturation occur consistently even if a stock is optimally managed. However, if a stock is managed optimally, the evolutionary changes actually increase economic yield because faster growth and earlier maturation raise the stock’s productivity. The optimal fishing mortality is almost identical for the evolutionary and nonevolutionary model and substantially lower than what it has been historically. Therefore, the costs of ignoring evolution under optimal management regimes are negligible. However, if fishing mortality is as high as it has been historically, evolutionary changes may result in economic losses, but only if the fishery is selecting for medium-sized individuals. Because evolution facilitates growth, the fish are younger and still immature when they are susceptible to getting caught, which outweighs the increase in productivity due to fish spawning at an earlier age.

Towards the Optimal Management of the Northeast Arctic Cod Fishery

The objectives pursued by governments managing fisheries may include maximizing profits, minimizing the impact on the marine ecosystem, or securing employment, which all require adjusting the composition of the fishing fleet. We develop a management plan that can be adapted to those objectives and allows the regulator to compare the long-run profits between the various management options. We apply the model to the case of Northeast Arctic cod, and estimate the cost and harvesting functions of various vessel types, the demand function, and a biological model to provide key insights regarding the optimal management of this valuable fish species.

How constraints affect the hunter’s decision to shoot a deer

Significance Wildlife populations in Europe and North America are regulated through hunting, as natural predators are still scarce. Therefore, wildlife is a social–ecological system with delicate feedbacks between the social and ecological subsystems. Both for population control and for evolution and because of cultural values, it is essential to understand how many and which animals are removed from the population. However, the question of how the social context influences the individual hunter’s decision to shoot or not to shoot an animal has not been addressed. We apply insights from economic search theory to explain how hunter selection is shaped by social constraints. We provide convincing evidence, using a unique dataset from deer hunting, that selectivity declines with more hunters competing and a shorter remaining season. Hunting is the predominant way of controlling many wildlife populations devoid of large carnivores. It subjects animals to mortality rates that far exceed natural rates and that differ markedly in which age, sex, or size classes are removed relative to those of natural predators. To explain the emerging selection pattern we develop behavioral microfoundations for a hunting model, emphasizing in particular the constraints given by the formal and informal norms, rules, and regulations that govern the hunter’s choice. We show how a shorter remaining season, competition among hunters, lower sighting probabilities, and higher costs all lead to lower reservation values, i.e., an increased likelihood of shooting a particular animal. Using a unique dataset on seen and shot deer from Norway, we test and confirm the theoretical predictions in a recreational and meat-motivated hunting system. To achieve sustainability, future wildlife management should account for this predictable selection pressure.

Trends in marine climate change research in the Nordic region since the first IPCC report

Oceans are exposed to anthropogenic climate change shifting marine systems toward potential instabilities. The physical, biological and social implications of such shifts can be assessed within individual scientific disciplines, but can only be fully understood by combining knowledge and expertise across disciplines. For climate change related problems these research directions have been well-established since the publication of the first IPCC report in 1990, however it is not well-documented to what extent these directions are reflected in published research. Focusing on the Nordic region, we evaluated the development of climate change related marine science by quantifying trends in number of publications, disciplinarity, and scientific focus of 1362 research articles published between 1990 and 2011. Our analysis showed a faster increase in publications within climate change related marine science than in general marine science indicating a growing prioritisation of research with a climate change focus. The composition of scientific disciplines producing climate change related publications, which initially was dominated by physical sciences, shifted toward a distribution with almost even representation of physical and biological sciences with social sciences constituting a minor constant proportion. These trends suggest that the predominantly model-based directions of the IPCC have favoured the more quantitatively oriented natural sciences rather than the qualitative traditions of social sciences. In addition, despite being an often declared prerequisite to successful climate science, we found surprisingly limited progress in implementing interdisciplinary research indicating that further initiatives nurturing scientific interactions are required.

The Rise and Fall of the Great Fish Pact under Endogenous Risk of Stock Collapse

Risk of stock collapse is a genuine motivation for cooperative fisheries management. We analyse the effect of an endogenously determined risk of stock collapse on the incentives to cooperate in a Great Fish War model. We establish that equilibrium harvest strategies are non-linear in stock and find that Grand Coalitions can be stable for any number of players if free-riding results in a total depletion of the fish stock. The results thus show conditions under which a Great Fish War becomes a Great Fish Pact. However, this conclusion no longer holds upon dropping the standard assumption that payoffs are evaluated in steady states. If payoffs in the transition between steady states are included, the increased incentives to deviate offset the increased benefits from cooperation due to the presence of endogenous risk and the Great Fish Pact returns to being a Great Fish War.

When is a fish stock collapsed

Marine fish stock collapses are a major concern for scientists and society due to the potentially severe impacts on ecosystem resilience, food security and livelihoods. Yet the general state of harvested fish populations has proven difficult to summarize, and the actual occurrence rate of stock collapses remains unclear. We have carried out a literature review and multi-stock analysis to show that numerous definitions exist for classifying stocks as collapsed, and that the classification of a stock’s status is sensitive to changes in the collapse definition’s formulation. We suggest that the lack of a unified definition has contributed to contrasting perceptions on the state of fish stocks. Therefore, we comprehensively define what constitutes a fish stock collapse and provide a time-series based method for collapse detection. Unlike existing definitions, our definition is process-based, because it links together three important phases of collapse events: the abrupt decline, an ensuing period of prolonged depletion, and potential recovery. Furthermore, these phases are specified in terms of population turnover. Through systematic evaluation, our definition can accurately distinguish collapses from less severe depletions or natural fluctuations for stocks with diverse life histories, helping identify the stocks in greatest need of reparatory measures. Our study advocates the consistent use of definitions to limit both alarmist and conservative narratives on the state of fish stocks, and to promote cooperation between conservation and fisheries scientists. This will facilitate clear and accurate communication of science to both the public and to policy-makers to ensure healthy fish stocks in the future.