Andy Krause

“Phasic” metropolitan settlers: a phase-based model for the distribution of households in US metropolitan regions

In this article, we develop a model for explaining spatial patterns in the distribution of households across metropolitan regions in the United States. First, we use housing consumption and residential mobility theories to construct a hypothetical probability distribution function for the consumption of housing services across three phases of household life span. We then hypothesize a second probability distribution function for the offering of housing services based on the distance from city center(s) at the metropolitan scale. Intersecting the two hypothetical probability functions, we develop a phase-based model for the distribution of households in US metropolitan regions. We argue that phase one households (young adults) are more likely to reside in central city locations, whereas phase two and three households are more likely to select suburban locations, due to their respective housing consumption behaviors. We provide empirical validation of our theoretical model with the data from the 2010 US Census for 35 large metropolitan regions.

A Cohort Location Model of household sorting in US metropolitan regions

In this paper we propose a household sorting model for the 50 largest US metropolitan regions and evaluate the model using 2010 Census data. To approximate residential locations for household cohorts, we specify a Cohort Location Model (CLM) built upon two principle assumptions about housing consumption and metropolitan development/land use patterns. According to our model, the expected distance from the household’s residential location to the city centre(s) increases with the age of the householder (as a proxy for changes in housing career over life span). The CLM provides a flexible housing-based explanation for household sorting patterns in US metropolitan regions. Results from our analysis on US metropolitan regions show that households headed by individuals under the age of 35 are the most common cohort in centrally located areas. We also found that households over 35 are most prevalent in peripheral locations, but their sorting was not statistically different across space.

The impact of transit-oriented development (TOD) on residential property prices: the case of Box Hill, Melbourne

Transit-oriented design (TOD) – an increase in density around transit stations – has arisen in many of Australia’s capital cities as a way to encourage mass transit ridership as well as to efficiently utilize the increase in foot and vehicle traffic that transit stations create. However, the implementation of TODs in Melbourne has faced strong opposition due to residents’ perception that the disamenities of a TOD will outweigh the benefits resulting in negative impacts on property prices. This research analyzes the relationship between proximity to a TOD and residential home prices. Results indicate that proximity to a TOD is positively related to property prices, even after controlling for neighborhood factors such as street connectivity and overall land use mix. By testing a variety of transformations of distance, we find that the benefits of TOD proximity extend approximately 1250 m from the Box Hill station. From a methodological standpoint, we find that more flexible treatments of distance variables in spatial autoregressive and spline models produce better model fit and lead to results more in line with urban economic theory.

Contaminated properties, trespass, and underground rents

Purpose – This paper seeks to extend the literature on property damage assessment by incorporating the right of exclusion as a compensable component to damages. The paper aims to go on to illustrate methodologies to estimate as a rent this damage component.Design/methodology/approach – The authors develop a conceptual framework from which to examine the value of underground storage space with special reference to situations in which migrating contamination from commercial operations have invaded private real property. Specifically they view this invasion as a compensable violation of the right of exclusion. This underground storage analysis uses the three approaches common to traditional appraisal (income, sales and cost) to estimate the value of underground storage caused by migrating contamination.Findings – Conceptually the paper finds that underground storage can be easily valued with existing appraisal methods. Using contamination scenarios paired with actual market data from the South‐Eastern USA, t...

Evaluating the Impact of Manufacturing Extension Services on Establishment Performance

This study examines the effects of receipt of business assistance services from the Manufacturing Extension Partnership (MEP) on manufacturing establishment performance. The results generally indicate that MEP services have had positive and significant impacts on establishment productivity and sales per worker for the 2002 to 2007 period with some exceptions based on employment size, industry, and type of service provided. MEP services have also increased the probability of establishment survival for the 1997 to 2007 period. Regardless of econometric model specification, MEP clients with 1 to 19 employees have statistically significant and higher levels of labor productivity growth. The authors also observed significant productivity differences associated with MEP services by broad sector, with higher impacts over the 2002 to 2007 period in the durable goods manufacturing sector. The study further finds that establishments receiving MEP assistance are more likely to survive than those that do not receive MEP assistance.

Evaluating the Long-Term Effect of NIST MEP Services on Establishment Performance

This work examines the effects of receipt of business assistance services from the Manufacturing Extension Partnership (MEP) on manufacturing establishment performance. Several measures of performance are considered: (1) change in value-added per employee (a measure of productivity); (2) change in sales per worker; (3) change in employment; and (4) establishment survival. To analyze these relationships, we merged program records from the MEP’s client and project information files with administrative records from the Census of Manufacturers and other Census databases over the periods 1997–2002 and 2002–2007 to compare the outcomes and performance of “served” and “unserved” manufacturing establishments. The approach builds on, updates, and expands upon earlier studies comparing matched MEP client and non-client performance over time periods ending in 1992 and 2002. Our results generally indicate that MEP services had positive and significant impacts on establishment productivity and sales per worker for the 2002–2007 period with some exceptions based on employment size, industry, and type of service provided. MEP services also increased the probability of establishment survival for the 1997–2007 period. Regardless of econometric model specification, MEP clients with 1–19 employees have statistically significant and higher levels of labor productivity growth. We also observed significant productivity differences associated with MEP services by broad sector, with higher impacts over the 2002–2007 time period in the durable goods manufacturing sector. The study further finds that establishments receiving MEP assistance are more likely to survive than those that do not receive MEP assistance. Detailed findings of the study, as well as caveats and limitations, are discussed in the paper.

Piece-by-piece: low-rise redevelopment in Seattle

The redevelopment of land containing single-family detached dwellings into small attached or multiple-family structures is a common method of densification in existing urban areas. The potential for redevelopment of any existing home is an important consideration for housing market participants, real estate developers and public officials. Using a longitudinal data-set from the City of Seattle, this study quantifies the impact that a number of factors – policy, physical, neighbourhood and market – have on the likelihood of this form of land use conversion. Derived with a duration model, these findings suggest that the size of the existing home, the adjacent land uses and, most importantly, factors affecting the size of the potential redevelopment have the largest impact on the probability of redevelopment.

Lifecycle, Housing Consumption, and Spatial Distribution of Households across Metropolitan Regions: Evidence from Five U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas

Explaining spatial redistribution patterns of households across metropolitan areas is a key area of research for demographers from both sociological and economic perspectives. Building on residential mobility and satisfaction rationale, we develop a theory for spatial distribution of households that improves conceptualization of the current patterns in metropolitan areas. Our theory connects intra-metropolitan residential mobility of households to the distribution of the bundle of housing services across metropolitan areas. We hypothesize a lifecycle-based redistribution pattern for households across metropolitan areas based on the degree of suburbanization. Using Census 2010 data, we provide evidence from five U.S. metropolitan regions to further verify the validity of our conceptual model.