Andy Ryan

Sensitivity and specificity of multimodal and ultrasound screening for ovarian cancer, and stage distribution of detected cancers: results of the prevalence screen of the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS)

BACKGROUND Ovarian cancer has a high case-fatality ratio, with most women not diagnosed until the disease is in its advanced stages. The United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) is a randomised controlled trial designed to assess the effect of screening on mortality. This report summarises the outcome of the prevalence (initial) screen in UKCTOCS. METHODS Between 2001 and 2005, a total of 202 638 post-menopausal women aged 50-74 years were randomly assigned to no treatment (control; n=101 359); annual CA125 screening (interpreted using a risk of ovarian cancer algorithm) with transvaginal ultrasound scan as a second-line test (multimodal screening [MMS]; n=50 640); or annual screening with transvaginal ultrasound (USS; n=50 639) alone in a 2:1:1 ratio using a computer-generated random number algorithm. All women provided a blood sample at recruitment. Women randomised to the MMS group had their blood tested for CA125 and those randomised to the USS group were sent an appointment to attend for a transvaginal scan. Women with abnormal screens had repeat tests. Women with persistent abnormality on repeat screens underwent clinical evaluation and, where appropriate, surgery. This trial is registered as ISRCTN22488978 and with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00058032. FINDINGS In the prevalence screen, 50 078 (98.9%) women underwent MMS, and 48 230 (95.2%) underwent USS. The main reasons for withdrawal were death (two MMS, 28 USS), non-ovarian cancer or other disease (none MMS, 66 USS), removal of ovaries (five MMS, 29 USS), relocation (none MMS, 39 USS), failure to attend three appointments for the screen (72 MMS, 757 USS), and participant changing their mind (483 MMS, 1490 USS). Overall, 4355 of 50 078 (8.7%) women in the MMS group and 5779 of 48 230 (12.0%) women in the USS group required a repeat test, and 167 (0.3%) women in the MMS group and 1894 (3.9%) women in the USS group required clinical evaluation. 97 of 50 078 (0.2%) women from the MMS group and 845 of 48 230 (1.8%) from the USS group underwent surgery. 42 (MMS) and 45 (USS) primary ovarian and tubal cancers were detected, including 28 borderline tumours (eight MMS, 20 USS). 28 (16 MMS, 12 USS) of 58 (48.3%; 95% CI 35.0-61.8) of the invasive cancers were stage I/II, with no difference (p=0.396) in stage distribution between the groups. A further 13 (five MMS, eight USS) women developed primary ovarian cancer during the year after the screen. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive-predictive values for all primary ovarian and tubal cancers were 89.4%, 99.8%, and 43.3% for MMS, and 84.9%, 98.2%, and 5.3% for USS, respectively. For primary invasive epithelial ovarian and tubal cancers, the sensitivity, specificity, and positive-predictive values were 89.5%, 99.8%, and 35.1% for MMS, and 75.0%, 98.2%, and 2.8% for USS, respectively. There was a significant difference in specificity (p<0.0001) but not sensitivity between the two screening groups for both primary ovarian and tubal cancers as well as primary epithelial invasive ovarian and tubal cancers. INTERPRETATION The sensitivity of the MMS and USS screening strategies is encouraging. Specificity was higher in the MMS than in the USS group, resulting in lower rates of repeat testing and surgery. This in part reflects the high prevalence of benign adnexal abnormalities and the more frequent detection of borderline tumours in the USS group. The prevalence screen has established that the screening strategies are feasible. The results of ongoing screening are awaited so that the effect of screening on mortality can be determined.

Ovarian cancer screening and mortality in the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS): a randomised controlled trial

Summary Background Ovarian cancer has a poor prognosis, with just 40% of patients surviving 5 years. We designed this trial to establish the effect of early detection by screening on ovarian cancer mortality. Methods In this randomised controlled trial, we recruited postmenopausal women aged 50–74 years from 13 centres in National Health Service Trusts in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. Exclusion criteria were previous bilateral oophorectomy or ovarian malignancy, increased risk of familial ovarian cancer, and active non-ovarian malignancy. The trial management system confirmed eligibility and randomly allocated participants in blocks of 32 using computer-generated random numbers to annual multimodal screening (MMS) with serum CA125 interpreted with use of the risk of ovarian cancer algorithm, annual transvaginal ultrasound screening (USS), or no screening, in a 1:1:2 ratio. The primary outcome was death due to ovarian cancer by Dec 31, 2014, comparing MMS and USS separately with no screening, ascertained by an outcomes committee masked to randomisation group. All analyses were by modified intention to screen, excluding the small number of women we discovered after randomisation to have a bilateral oophorectomy, have ovarian cancer, or had exited the registry before recruitment. Investigators and participants were aware of screening type. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00058032. Findings Between June 1, 2001, and Oct 21, 2005, we randomly allocated 202 638 women: 50 640 (25·0%) to MMS, 50 639 (25·0%) to USS, and 101 359 (50·0%) to no screening. 202 546 (>99·9%) women were eligible for analysis: 50 624 (>99·9%) women in the MMS group, 50 623 (>99·9%) in the USS group, and 101 299 (>99·9%) in the no screening group. Screening ended on Dec 31, 2011, and included 345 570 MMS and 327 775 USS annual screening episodes. At a median follow-up of 11·1 years (IQR 10·0–12·0), we diagnosed ovarian cancer in 1282 (0·6%) women: 338 (0·7%) in the MMS group, 314 (0·6%) in the USS group, and 630 (0·6%) in the no screening group. Of these women, 148 (0·29%) women in the MMS group, 154 (0·30%) in the USS group, and 347 (0·34%) in the no screening group had died of ovarian cancer. The primary analysis using a Cox proportional hazards model gave a mortality reduction over years 0–14 of 15% (95% CI −3 to 30; p=0·10) with MMS and 11% (−7 to 27; p=0·21) with USS. The Royston-Parmar flexible parametric model showed that in the MMS group, this mortality effect was made up of 8% (−20 to 31) in years 0–7 and 23% (1–46) in years 7–14, and in the USS group, of 2% (−27 to 26) in years 0–7 and 21% (−2 to 42) in years 7–14. A prespecified analysis of death from ovarian cancer of MMS versus no screening with exclusion of prevalent cases showed significantly different death rates (p=0·021), with an overall average mortality reduction of 20% (−2 to 40) and a reduction of 8% (−27 to 43) in years 0–7 and 28% (−3 to 49) in years 7–14 in favour of MMS. Interpretation Although the mortality reduction was not significant in the primary analysis, we noted a significant mortality reduction with MMS when prevalent cases were excluded. We noted encouraging evidence of a mortality reduction in years 7–14, but further follow-up is needed before firm conclusions can be reached on the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of ovarian cancer screening. Funding Medical Research Council, Cancer Research UK, Department of Health, The Eve Appeal.

Antiangiogenic therapy of cerebral melanoma metastases results in sustained tumor progression via vessel co-option

Purpose: In the brain, tumors may grow without inducing angiogenesis, via co-option of the dense pre-existent capillary bed. The purpose of this study was to investigate how this phenomenon influences the outcome of antiangiogenic therapy. Experimental Design: Mice carrying brain metastases of the human, highly angiogenic melanoma cell line Mel57-VEGF-A were either or not treated with different dosages of ZD6474, a vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) receptor 2 tyrosine kinase inhibitor with additional activity against epidermal growth factor receptor. Effect of treatment was evaluated using contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (CE- MRI) and (immuno)morphologic analysis. Results: Placebo-treated Mel57-VEGF-A brain metastases evoked an angiogenic response and were highlighted in CE-MRI. After treatment with ZD6474 (100 mg/kg), CE-MRI failed to detect tumors in either prevention or therapeutic treatment regimens. However, (immuno)histologic analysis revealed the presence of numerous, small, nonangiogenic lesions. Treatment with 25 mg/kg ZD6474 also resulted in efficient blockade of vessel formation, but it did not fully inhibit vascular leakage, thereby still allowing visualization in CE-MRI scans. Conclusions: Our data show that, although angiogenesis can be effectively blocked by ZD6474, in vessel-dense organs this may result in sustained tumor progression via co-option, rather than in tumor dormancy. Importantly, blocking VEGF-A may result in undetectability of tumors in CE-MRI scans, leading to erroneous conclusions about therapeutic efficacy during magnetic resonance imaging follow-up. The maintenance of VEGF-A-induced vessel leakage in the absence of neovascularization at lower ZD6474 doses may be exploited to improve delivery of chemotherapeutic agents in combined treatment regimens of antiangiogenic and chemotherapeutic compounds.

Decline in use of hormone therapy among postmenopausal women in the United Kingdom

Objective:There has been controversy about the results of the Womens Health Initiative and the Million Women Study and uncertainty about their impact on hormone therapy (HT) use. This study documents recent trends in HT use in postmenopausal women in the United Kingdom. Design:Between April 2001 and September 2005, 202,638 postmenopausal women aged 50 to 74 and with no history of bilateral oophorectomy were recruited to the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening. The proportion of women randomized each month who were using HT was calculated. The trend in HT use was assessed with reference to the publication of the Womens Health Initiative interim results (July 2002), the Million Women Study (August 2003), and advice from the UK Committee on Safety of Medicines (December 2003). Results:The median number of women recruited and randomized per month was 3,955 (mean 3,744). The proportion of randomized women using HT between April 2001 and June 2002 was 29%. This was followed by a steady monthly decline, and by February to September 2005, only 10% to 11% of newly recruited women were using HT. This trend was present in all age groups. However, in current users, the average duration of HT use remained steady at 10 to 11 years. Conclusions:There was a steady decline in HT use among postmenopausal women at recruitment into the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening between April 2001 and September 2005. This is likely to reflect general trends in the UK population and is probably related to the premature closure of the large HT trials and the ensuing publicity.

Recruitment of newly diagnosed ovarian cancer patients proved challenging in a multicentre biobanking study

OBJECTIVE To explore the challenges of recruiting ovarian cancer patients and healthy controls to a cancer biobanking study. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING The study was set up in gynecological cancer centers in 10 National Health Service trusts across the United Kingdom. Women were approached if they were undergoing investigations/awaiting treatment for ovarian cancer, had a previous diagnosis of ovarian cancer, or were attending for annual screening in an ovarian cancer screening trial. Those who consented completed a detailed epidemiologic questionnaire, provided blood and tissue samples if appropriate. RESULTS The overall proportion of those recruited compared with the expected targets was 76.4% for healthy controls, 86.0% for old cases, and 46.9% for new cases. Only 4 of 10 (40%) centers recruited over 50% of their target for new cases. Unwillingness to participate was reported as primarily because of patients being too unwell, wanting to focus only on their treatment, or having insufficient time because of conflicting medical appointments. Concerns about use of personal data or tissue and blood samples for genetic research and lack of direct benefit were reported as significant challenges to recruitment. CONCLUSION When setting recruitment targets for patients undergoing investigations or awaiting treatment for cancer (new cases), it is important to consider lower response rates because of various patient, logistical, and trial-specific challenges.

Evidence of stage shift in women diagnosed with ovarian cancer during phase II of the United Kingdom familial ovarian cancer screening study

Purpose To establish the performance of screening with serum cancer antigen 125 (CA-125), interpreted using the risk of ovarian cancer algorithm (ROCA), and transvaginal sonography (TVS) for women at high risk of ovarian cancer (OC) or fallopian tube cancer (FTC). Patients and Methods Women whose estimated lifetime risk of OC/FTC was ≥ 10% were recruited at 42 centers in the United Kingdom and underwent ROCA screening every 4 months. TVS occurred annually if ROCA results were normal or within 2 months of an abnormal ROCA result. Risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO) was encouraged throughout the study. Participants were observed via cancer registries, questionnaires, and notification by centers. Performance was calculated after censoring 365 days after prior screen, with modeling of occult cancers detected at RRSO. Results Between June 14, 2007, and May 15, 2012, 4,348 women underwent 13,728 women-years of screening. The median follow-up time was 4.8 years. Nineteen patients were diagnosed with invasive OC/FTC within 1 year of prior screening (13 diagnoses were screen-detected and six were occult at RRSO). No symptomatic interval cancers occurred. Ten (52.6%) of the total 19 diagnoses were stage I to II OC/FTC (CI, 28.9% to 75.6%). Of the 13 screen-detected cancers, five (38.5%) were stage I to II (CI, 13.9% to 68.4%). Of the six occult cancers, five (83.3%) were stage I to II (CI, 35.9% to 99.6%). Modeled sensitivity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for OC/FTC detection within 1 year were 94.7% (CI, 74.0% to 99.9%), 10.8% (6.5% to 16.5%), and 100% (CI, 100% to 100%), respectively. Seven (36.8%) of the 19 cancers diagnosed < 1 year after prior screen were stage IIIb to IV (CI, 16.3% to 61.6%) compared with 17 (94.4%) of 18 cancers diagnosed > 1 year after screening ended (CI, 72.7% to 99.9%; P < .001). Eighteen (94.8%) of 19 cancers diagnosed < 1 year after prior screen had zero residual disease (with lower surgical complexity, P = .16) (CI, 74.0% to 99.9%) compared with 13 (72.2%) of 18 cancers subsequently diagnosed (CI, 46.5% to 90.3%; P = .09). Conclusion ROCA-based screening is an option for women at high risk of OC/FTC who defer or decline RRSO, given its high sensitivity and significant stage shift. However, it remains unknown whether this strategy would improve survival in screened high-risk women.

Psychological morbidity associated with ovarian cancer screening: results from more than 23 000 women in the randomised trial of ovarian cancer screening (UKCTOCS)

To examine the psychological sequelae associated with abnormal screening in the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS).

Dose-Response Association of CD8+ Tumor-Infiltrating Lymphocytes and Survival Time in High-Grade Serous Ovarian Cancer.

Importance Cytotoxic CD8+ tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) participate in immune control of epithelial ovarian cancer; however, little is known about prognostic patterns of CD8+ TILs by histotype and in relation to other clinical factors. Objective To define the prognostic role of CD8+ TILs in epithelial ovarian cancer. Design, Setting, and Participants This was a multicenter observational, prospective survival cohort study of the Ovarian Tumor Tissue Analysis Consortium. More than 5500 patients, including 3196 with high-grade serous ovarian carcinomas (HGSOCs), were followed prospectively for over 24 650 person-years. Exposures Following immunohistochemical analysis, CD8+ TILs were identified within the epithelial components of tumor islets. Patients were grouped based on the estimated number of CD8+ TILs per high-powered field: negative (none), low (1-2), moderate (3-19), and high (≥20). CD8+ TILs in a subset of patients were also assessed in a quantitative, uncategorized manner, and the functional form of associations with survival was assessed using penalized B-splines. Main Outcomes and Measures Overall survival time. Results The final sample included 5577 women; mean age at diagnosis was 58.4 years (median, 58.2 years). Among the 5 major invasive histotypes, HGSOCs showed the most infiltration. CD8+ TILs in HGSOCs were significantly associated with longer overall survival; median survival was 2.8 years for patients with no CD8+ TILs and 3.0 years, 3.8 years, and 5.1 years for patients with low, moderate, or high levels of CD8+ TILs, respectively (P value for trend = 4.2 × 10−16). A survival benefit was also observed among women with endometrioid and mucinous carcinomas, but not for those with the other histotypes. Among HGSOCs, CD8+ TILs were favorable regardless of extent of residual disease following cytoreduction, known standard treatment, and germline BRCA1 pathogenic mutation, but were not prognostic for BRCA2 mutation carriers. Evaluation of uncategorized CD8+ TIL counts showed a near-log-linear functional form. Conclusions and Relevance This study demonstrates the histotype-specific nature of immune infiltration and provides definitive evidence for a dose-response relationship between CD8+ TILs and HGSOC survival. That the extent of infiltration is prognostic, not merely its presence or absence, suggests that understanding factors that drive infiltration will be the key to unraveling outcome heterogeneity in this cancer.

Assessing the malignant potential of ovarian inclusion cysts in postmenopausal women within the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS): a prospective cohort study.

Please cite this paper as: Sharma A, Gentry‐Maharaj A, Burnell M, Fourkala E, Campbell S, Amso N, Seif M, Ryan A, Parmar M, Jacobs I, Menon U, for the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS). Assessing the malignant potential of ovarian inclusion cysts in postmenopausal women within the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS): a prospective cohort study. BJOG 2012;119:207–219.

Protein Z: A putative novel biomarker for early detection of ovarian cancer

Ovarian cancer (OC) has the highest mortality of all gynaecological cancers. Early diagnosis offers an approach to achieving better outcomes. We conducted a blinded‐evaluation of prospectively collected preclinical serum from participants in the multimodal group of the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening. Using isobaric tags (iTRAQ) we identified 90 proteins differentially expressed between OC cases and controls. A second targeted mass spectrometry analysis of twenty of these candidates identified Protein Z as a potential early detection biomarker for OC. This was further validated by ELISA analysis in 482 serial serum samples, from 80 individuals, 49 OC cases and 31 controls, spanning up to 7 years prior to diagnosis. Protein Z was significantly down‐regulated up to 2 years pre‐diagnosis (p = 0.000000411) in 8 of 19 Type I patients whilst in 5 Type II individuals, it was significantly up‐regulated up to 4 years before diagnosis (p = 0.01). ROC curve analysis for CA‐125 and CA‐125 combined with Protein Z showed a statistically significant (p= 0.00033) increase in the AUC from 77 to 81% for Type I and a statistically significant (p= 0.00003) increase in the AUC from 76 to 82% for Type II. Protein Z is a novel independent early detection biomarker for Type I and Type II ovarian cancer; which can discriminate between both types. Protein Z also adds to CA‐125 and potentially the Risk of Ovarian Cancer algorithm in the detection of both subtypes.