Ani Balabanyan

From Crisis to Stability in the Armenian Power Sector: Lessons Learned from Armenia's Energy Reform Experience

In the wake of the Soviet Unions collapse, Armenia, like other former Soviet republics, began to struggle with the implications of its newfound independence. In the electricity sector, this meant learning how to manage and sustain a fragment of a system that had never been designed to function as a stand-alone grid. Armenias electricity system-and, indeed, its entire energy supply system-had been designed to operate as part of a much larger, integrated Trans-Caucasus system. Plants were built to run on fuel imported from thousands of miles away, from neighbors who, with the Soviet Union gone, could offer little certainty that such supply would continue under terms that Armenia could afford. The problems with this system began to show in 1992. The start of the war over Nagorno Karabakh, and the resulting imposition by Azerbaijan and Turkey of an economic blockade, cut off Armenias only source of gas and oil for its thermal plants. Four years prior to that, a massive earthquake had forced a shut down of the Medzamor nuclear power plant, a source of roughly one-third of Armenias generating capacity. Supply from a new gas pipeline, built in 1993 through neighboring Georgia, was regularly interrupted by acts of sabotage. Armenia was left to rely almost entirely on its hydropower resources, at great expense to Lake Sevan, one of the countrys most precious natural resources.

Cost Recovery and Financial Viability of the Power Sector in Developing Countries: A Literature Review

The financial viability of the power sector is a prerequisite for attracting the investment needed to ensure reliable energy supply, meet universal access targets, and hasten the clean energy transition. Adequate pricing of electricity to allow for cost recovery is also important to minimize the power sector’s negative macroeconomic, fiscal, environmental, and social impacts. This paper takes stock of the empirical and conceptual literature on the financial viability and cost recovery of the power sector in developing countries. Time-series data across countries are relatively scarce, but comparing the findings from 21 studies suggests that under-recovery of costs remains pervasive despite decades of efforts by governments and development institutions. Large electricity subsidies continue to burden governments, especially in the Middle East, South Asia, Central Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Reviews by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund on outcomes of their own engagement also conclude that progress on cost recovery in supported countries has been limited. Although the aggregated view obscures fluctuation within individual countries over time, the available evidence suggests that countries progressing toward cost recovery may find themselves backsliding within a few years. As for understanding the circumstances under which progress can be made, a handful of studies point toward a correlation between sector reforms and cost recovery, although few of the studies address obvious endogeneity problems. To provide more solid guidance for future efforts to improve cost recovery, more research is needed on: (i) the determinants and enabling conditions of progress on cost recovery; (ii) tariff reform sequencing; and (iii) institutional arrangements, policies, and regulations that enable countries to sustain cost recovery once it is reached.

Outage : investment shortfalls in the power sector in Eastern Europe and Central Asia

Before the onset of the global financial crisis in late 2008, countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia (ECA) experienced strong economic growth. Demand for electricity increased steadily with gross domestic product (GDP). GDP grew, on average, 6.5 percent between 2000 and 2007, and electricity consumption per capita grew 2.75 percent. Meanwhile, energy security and supply reliability were a growing concern for policymakers and planners. Despite increased access to financing through the opening of international financial markets, under-maintenance of old soviet-era power sector infrastructure created a backlog of critical investments threatening the stability of the sector. As a result, a gap between demand and available supply capacity was beginning to emerge. This report analyzes the impacts of the financial crisis on power sectors in the ECA region through the experience of five countries (the study countries); Armenia, the Kyrgyz Republic, Romania, Serbia, and Ukraine. The reports objective is to help policymakers in the region plan and prioritize electricity sector investments in the wake of the financial crisis, and to provide a basis for future discussions about World Bank assistance.