Anikó Kern

Evaluation of the Quality of NDVI3g Dataset against Collection 6 MODIS NDVI in Central Europe between 2000 and 2013

Remote sensing provides invaluable insight into the dynamics of vegetation with global coverage and reasonable temporal resolution. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is widely used to study vegetation greenness, production, phenology and the responses of ecosystems to climate fluctuations. The extended global NDVI3g dataset created by Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) has an exceptional 32 years temporal coverage. Due to the methodology that was used to create NDVI3g inherent noise and uncertainty is present in the dataset. To evaluate the accuracy and uncertainty of application of NDVI3g at regional scale we used Collection-6 data from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor on board satellite Terra as a reference. After noise filtering, statistical harmonization of the NDVI3g dataset was performed for Central Europe based on MOD13 NDVI. Mean seasonal NDVI profiles, start, end and length of the growing season, magnitude and timing of peak NDVI were calculated from NDVI3g (original, noise filtered and harmonized) and MODIS NDVI and compared with each other. NDVI anomalies were also compared and evaluated using simple climate sensitivity metrics. The results showed that (1) the original NDVI3g has limited applicability in Central Europe, which was also implied by the significant disagreement between the NDVI3g and MODIS NDVI datasets; (2) the harmonization of NDVI3g with MODIS NDVI is promising since the newly created dataset showed improved quality for diverse vegetation metrics. For NDVI anomaly detection NDVI3g showed limited applicability, even after harmonization. Climate–NDVI relationships are not represented well by NDVI3g. The presented results can help researchers to assess the expected quality of the NDVI3g-based studies in Central Europe.

Yield estimation and forecasting for winter wheat in Hungary using time series of MODIS data

ABSTRACT Wheat is one of the most important crops in Hungary, which represents approximately 20% of the entire agricultural area of the country, and about 40% of cereals. A robust yield method has been improved for estimating and forecasting wheat yield in Hungary in the period of 2003–2015 using normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from the data of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer. Estimation was made at the end of June – it is generally the beginning of harvest of winter wheat in Hungary – while the forecasts were performed 1–7 weeks earlier. General yield unified robust reference index (GYURRI) vegetation index was calculated each year using different curve-fitting methods to the NDVI time series. The correlation between GYURRI and country level yield data gave correlation coefficient (r) of 0.985 for the examined 13 years in the case of estimation. Simulating a quasi-operative yield estimation process, 10 years’ (2006–2015) yield data was estimated. The differences between the estimated and actual yield data provided by the Hungarian Central Statistical Office were less than 5%, the average difference was 2.5%. In the case of forecasting, these average differences calculated approximately 2 and 4 weeks before the beginning of harvest season were 4.5% and 6.8%, respectively. We also tested the yield estimation procedure for smaller areas, for the 19 counties (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics-3 level) of Hungary. We found that, the relationship between GYURRI and the county level yield data had r of 0.894 for the years 2003–2014, and by simulating the quasi-operative forecast for 2015, the resulting 19 county average yield values differed from the actual yield as much as 8.7% in average.

What Climate Can We Expect in Central/Eastern Europe by 2071–2100?

According to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group I, published on 2 February 2007 (IPCC 2007), the key processes influencing the European climate can be summarized as follows: (i) water vapour transport from low to high latitudes has increased; (ii) variation of atmospheric circulation has changed on interannual as well as longer time scales; (iii) snow cover during winter has reduced in the northeastern part of the continent; (iv) the soil has dried in summer in the Mediterranean and Central European regions.