Anil Sood

India 2039: An Affluent Society in One Generation

This book provides a perspective on where India could be in the year 2039, if it maintains the economic growth rates it has experienced recently. In addition to emphasizing the virtuous cycle between growth and poverty reduction, the book outlines the salient challenges that India must overcome to achieve this end. These challenges include: Addressing structural inequalities that lie at the core of poverty and exclusion of the most vulnerable groups. The provision of education and health services, and infrastructure services to rural and urban populations. Ensuring an improved environment—clean air, clean water and sanitation etc. Launching an energy revolution, with a view to reducing the economy’s carbon intensity. Overcoming critical infrastructure bottlenecks. Improving the quality of education and access to secondary and tertiary education. Improving the business environment to foster entrepreneurship and innovation. Taking on the role of a responsible global citizen. The book proposes that India could be one of the top three global economic powers in 30 years. It presents a persuasive case that if India succeeds in sustaining its recent economic success over the longer term (as many East Asian economies have done in the past), India can realistically aspire to become an affluent society—with a GDP per capita of

Latin America 2040 — Breaking Away from Complacency: An Agenda for Resurgence

22,000 (PPP terms and no poor people–within one generation. India 2039 assesses the many hurdles – political, social, policy and institutional – that India must overcome to realize its vision to become a modern, affluent, inclusive society and lift millions of Indians from relative poverty within 30 years. It provides an agenda of intergenerational issues that are central to India avoiding the middle income trap—where countries stagnate at middle income levels and are unable to achieve high income status– that so many other countries have fallen into. The recommendations emphasize a pro-active stance on the climate change agenda, because itis in India’s self-interest. In addition, the authors provide recommendations on the measures required to enhance India’s global competitiveness based on improving the business environment, strengthening innovation and entrepreneurship, and building the required physical, technological and information infrastructure. Importantly, the recommendations also covered cross-cutting issues such as: Improving governance at the national, state and municipal levels. Reform of the bureaucracy, civil service, and judiciary. Measures to address structural inequities, such as those based on ethnic and religious differences that affect the most vulnerable populations.

Productivity and Technology for Asia’s Growth

This book presents a long term vision of Latin American society and economies, within which current policy debates and actions must be anchored. It presents a set of multigenerational issues that must be tackled in order for countries in the region to reduce inequities, as well as raise their economic growth rates. The authors provide insight and advice regarding: budgetary policy and management, poverty reduction, macroeconomic policy coordination and integration, labor market policy, long-term macroeconomic reforms, innovation and technological development, infrastructure needs, regional cooperation and trade, and governance and political sustainability. This book provides an analysis of the challenges facing economic growth, equality, public safety, education, competitiveness and technology and innovation. In doing so, the authors analyze the reasons for Latin America’s underperformance during the past 30 years, highlighting the issues related to unsustainable economic, social and political policies. The analysis is based on an innovative instrumental-variable-based structural equation model, developed by the Centennial Group. It is used to project the infrastructure needs of 21 countries for 10 sectors through 2040 under alternate growth scenarios. Latin America 2040 presents a strategy to realize the vision for rapid economic growth and faster reduction in disparities during the next three decades by sharply raising their growth rates while achieving more inclusive societies. It offers an agenda for what Latin America’s national leaders, policy makers and private businesses must do to regain the regions past momentum and achieve a much needed resurgence. A Spanish translation of the book will be available in October 2011. A companion video, based on the key messages of the book, can also be viewed.

Africa 2050: Realizing the Continent’s Full Potential

For Asia to realize the Asian Century in 2050 and reach per capita income levels similar to Europe today, its fast-growing converging economies must sustain their growth momentum. The slower growing countries must accelerate their growth to achieve convergence status during this period. The underlying requirement for both groups is continued rapid improvement in total factor productivity (TFP). Although it may sound ambitious and though it is definitely not preordained, Asia can reach this dream if its economies strive for excellence in the areas of productivity and innovation, while learning from the best practice in the region and beyond. This article addresses the TFP level and performance of Asian economies, the salient underlying factors, and the strategies that Asian economies must pursue to make further improvement.

Competitiveness, Productivity, and Growth

This article offers a vision of what Africa could be in 2050. In such a scenario, average per capita income would increase six-fold, an additional 1.4 billion Africans would join the middleclass, the number of poor would shrink to fewer than 50 million, and Africa’s share of global gross domestic product (GDP) would triple. For people, the biggest change would be better, less vulnerable jobs with higher productivity; for economies, dramatic productivity increases driven by private sector investment, diversification, and more competition; and for the continent, better integrated sub-regions and relations with the world based on trade and investment rather than aid. In the face of a multi-polar global economy, aging and population growth, increased competition for natural resources, rapid innovation, climate change, urbanization, and natural resource wealth, Africa needs to manage the risk of fragility and conflict, inequality, and the middle-income trap to achieve such a vision.

Breaking away from Mediocre Complacency to a Prosperous Future

African economies face two challenges in the future: weathering possible downturns in demand and prices of commodities; and creating a large number of jobs for the continent’s booming working-age population. High global demand for the continent’s natural resources, macroeconomic reform, foreign aid inflows, and concessional debt relief have helped African economies grow and ride out the financial crisis, but growth remains vulnerable. To continue to develop, African economies need to turn to high-productivity, job-intensive activities such as agro-processing, manufacturing, and services. Exports need to increase, and the private sector needs to be stimulated by, among other things, curbing anti-competitive behavior, improving infrastructure and financial services, and reducing the burden of regulatory requirements. Investing in education, technology, innovation, and entrepreneurship is key to realizing gains in productivity and competitiveness.

Asia 2050: Realizing the Asian Century

Latin America has been one of the most prosperous regions among the group of emerging economies. However, particularly in recent decades, Latin America has not managed to keep up with the growth of other emerging economies. This article lays out some reasons to explain the region’s lackluster economic growth. It proposes that the region and its leaders need to promote a vision of a vibrant, fastgrowing economic region where more inclusion, higher productivity, and increased competition and openness are the objects of national policy. While no regions are equivalent, the example of East Asia, even with its own vulnerabilities provides important lessons for Latin America, as it devises policies to free it from the middle-income trap.