Anil V. Kulkarni

The State and Fate of Himalayan Glaciers

Going More Slowly Himalayan glaciers sometimes are called the “Third Pole” because of the amount of snow and ice they contain. Despite their importance as a global water reservoir and their essential role in Asian hydrology, how their mass is changing in response to global warming is not well known. Bolch et al. (p. 310) review the contemporary evolution of glaciers in the Himalayan region, including those of the less well sampled region of the Karakoram to the Northwest, in order to provide a current, comprehensive picture of how they are changing. Most Himalayan glaciers are retreating at rates comparable to glaciers elsewhere in the world. In the Karakorum, on the other hand, advancing glaciers are more common. Himalayan glaciers are a focus of public and scientific debate. Prevailing uncertainties are of major concern because some projections of their future have serious implications for water resources. Most Himalayan glaciers are losing mass at rates similar to glaciers elsewhere, except for emerging indications of stability or mass gain in the Karakoram. A poor understanding of the processes affecting them, combined with the diversity of climatic conditions and the extremes of topographical relief within the region, makes projections speculative. Nevertheless, it is unlikely that dramatic changes in total runoff will occur soon, although continuing shrinkage outside the Karakoram will increase the seasonality of runoff, affect irrigation and hydropower, and alter hazards.

Mass balance of Himalayan glaciers using AAR and ELA methods

The accumulation area ratio (AAR) for Himalayan glaciers representing zero mass balance is substantially lower than for North America and Europe. Regression analysis suggests 0.44 for the AAR representing zero mass balance in the western Himalaya. A good correlation was observed when this method was applied to individual glaciers such as Gara and Gor-Garang in Himachal Pradesh, India. The correlation coefficients ( r ), using 6 and 7 years of data, respectively, were 0.88 and 0.96 for Gara and Gor-Garang Glaciers, respectively. However, when data from six western Himalayan glaciers were correlated, the correlation was 0.74. The AAR was also estimated by using Landsat images which can be useful in obtaining a trend in mass balance for a large number of Himalayan glaciers for which very little information exists. A higher correlation was observed between equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) and mass balance. The field data from Gara and Gor-Garang Glaciers shows a high correlation coefficient, i.e. −0.92 and −0.94, respectively. The ELA values obtained from the Landsat satellite images combined with topographic maps suggest positive mass balance for the year 1986–87 and negative for 1987–88.

Understanding changes in the Himalayan cryosphere using remote sensing techniques

In the Himalayas, a large area is covered by glaciers and seasonal snow and changes in its extent can influence availability of water in the Himalayan Rivers. In this paper, changes in glacial extent, glacial mass balance and seasonal snow cover are discussed. Glacial retreat was estimated for 1868 glaciers in 11 basins distributed in the Indian Himalaya since 1962. The investigation has shown an overall reduction in glacier area from 6332 to 5329 km2 from 1962 to 2001/2 – an overall deglaciation of 16%. Snow line at the end of ablation season on the Chhota Shigri glacier observed using field and satellite methods suggests a change in altitude from 4900 to 5200 m from the late 1970s to present. Seasonal snow cover was monitored in the 28 river sub-basins using normalized difference snow index (NDSI) technique in Central and Western Himalaya. The investigation has shown that in the early part of winter, i.e. from October to December, a large amount of snow retreat was observed. For many basins located in lower altitude and in the south of the Pir Panjal range, snow ablation was observed throughout the winter season. In addition, average stream runoff of the Baspa basin for the month of December increased by 75%. This combination of glacial retreat, negative mass balance, early melting of seasonal snow cover and winter-time increase in stream runoff might suggest an influence of global warming on the Himalayan cryosphere.

Himalayan glacier retreat using IRS 1C PAN stereo data

A merged image of nadir viewing PAN and LISS III data of 2000 and PAN stereo data of 2000–2001 from Indian Remote Sensing satellite (IRS)‐1C covering Gangotri glacier was interpreted to identify its snout or terminus and to measure the retreat of this glacier with respect to the position of snout in a topographical map of 1962. Elevations from the map and DEM generated from stereo data were compared to determine the thickness of the glacier ice across the section of retreat prior to year 1962. The annual retreat of the glacier at the end of the ablation season during the year 2000–2001 was measured using PAN orthoimages.

Distribution of seasonal snow cover in central and western Himalaya.

Abstract Indian rivers originating in the Himalaya depend on seasonal snow-cover melt during crucial summer months. The seasonal snow cover was monitored using Advanced Wide Field Sensor (AWiFS) data of the Indian Remote Sensing Satellite (IRS) and using the Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI) algorithm. The investigation was carried out for a period of 3 years (2004/05, 2005/06 and 2006/07) between October and June. A total of 28 sub-basins of the Ganga and Indus river basins were monitored at intervals of 5 or 10 days. Approximately 1500 AWiFS scenes were analyzed. A combination of area–altitude distribution and snow map was used to estimate the distribution of snow cover in altitude zones for the individual basins and for the western and central Himalaya. Hypsographic curve and snow-free area was used to estimate monthly snow-line elevation. The lowest snow-line altitude in the winters of 2004/05, 2005/06 and 2006/07 was observed at 2480 ma.s.l. on 25 February 2005. In Ravi basin for the year 2004/05, snow accumulation and ablation were continuous processes throughout the winter. Even in the middle of winter, the snow area was reduced from 90% to 55%. Similar trends were observed for 2005/06 and 2007/08. In Bhaga basin, snowmelt was observed in the early part of the winter, i.e. in December, and no significant melting was observed between January and April.

Hyperspectral analysis of snow reflectance to understand the effects of contamination and grain size

Abstract Reflectance data for contaminated and different grain-size snow were collected using a spectroradiometer ranging from 350 to 2500 nm. Contamination was predominantly due to soil. The radiometer data were binned at 10 nm intervals by averaging, and then principal component analysis, shape, size and strength of the absorption peak, first and second derivatives were computed, providing information about the effect of grain size and contamination on snow reflectance. Relative strength for contamination and grain size showed a distinct reverse pattern at 1025 nm after continuum removal. Band absorption depth at 1025 nm showed an increase with increasing snow grain size, whereas the band depth was found to decrease with increased soil contamination. The curve shape was right asymmetric and showed a change to left asymmetry with increase in contamination. The first derivative of reflectance in the visible region showed a shift of peak due to contamination. Soil contamination significantly reduced the albedo of snow at a low level of contamination but showed little influence at higher level. Relative strength, shape of curve and reflectance characteristics have shown the potential to identify the influence of contamination and grain-size based metamorphism using satellite-based hyperspectral remote sensing.

Relative effect of slope and equilibrium line altitude on the retreat of Himalayan glaciers

It has been observed that a majority of glaciers in the Himalayas have been retreating. In this paper, we show that there are two major factors which control the advance/retreat of the Himalayan glaciers. They are the slope of the glacier and changes in the equilibrium line altitude. While it is well known, that these factors are important, we propose a new way of combining them and use it to predict retreat. The functional form of this model has been derived from numerical simulations using an ice-flow code. The model has been successfully applied to the movement of eight Himalayan glaciers during the past 25 years. It explains why the Gangotri glacier is retreating while Zemu of nearly the same length is stationary, even if they are subject to similar environmental changes. The model has also been applied to a larger set of glaciers in the Parbati basin, for which retreat based on satellite data is available, though over a shorter time period.

Field-based spectral reflectance measurements of seasonal snow cover in the Indian Himalaya

In the present study, spectroradiometer (350–2500 nm) experiments are carried out in the field to understand the influence of snow grain size, contamination, moisture, ageing, snow depth, slope / aspect on spectral reflectance and to determine the sensitive wavelengths for mapping of snow and estimation of snow characteristics using satellite data. The observations suggest that, due to ageing and grain-size variation, the maximum variations in reflectance are observed in the near-infrared region, i.e. around 1040–1050 nm. For varying contamination and snow depth, the maximum variations are observed in the visible region, i.e. around 470 and 590 nm, respectively. For the moisture changes, the maximum variations are observed around 980 and 1160 nm. Based on the spectral signatures of seasonal snow, the normalized difference snow index (NDSI) is studied, and snow indexes, such as grain and contamination indexes, are proposed. The study also suggests that the NDSI increases with ageing, grain size and moisture content. The NDSI values remain constant with variations in slope and aspect. Attempts are made to estimate seasonal snow characteristics using multispectral Advanced Wide Field Sensor (AWiFS) Indian Remote Sensing (IRS-P6) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Terra satellite data and validated with snow-meteorological observatory data of the study area.

Missing (in-situ) snow cover data hampers climate change and runoff studies in the Greater Himalayas.

The Himalayas are presently holding the largest ice masses outside the polar regions and thus (temporarily) store important freshwater resources. In contrast to the contemplation of glaciers, the role of runoff from snow cover has received comparably little attention in the past, although (i) its contribution is thought to be at least equally or even more important than that of ice melt in many Himalayan catchments and (ii) climate change is expected to have widespread and significant consequences on snowmelt runoff. Here, we show that change assessment of snowmelt runoff and its timing is not as straightforward as often postulated, mainly as larger partial pressure of H2O, CO2, CH4, and other greenhouse gases might increase net long-wave input for snowmelt quite significantly in a future atmosphere. In addition, changes in the short-wave energy balance - such as the pollution of the snow cover through black carbon - or the sensible or latent heat contribution to snowmelt are likely to alter future snowmelt and runoff characteristics as well. For the assessment of snow cover extent and depletion, but also for its monitoring over the extremely large areas of the Himalayas, remote sensing has been used in the past and is likely to become even more important in the future. However, for the calibration and validation of remotely-sensed data, and even more so in light of possible changes in snow-cover energy balance, we strongly call for more in-situ measurements across the Himalayas, in particular for daily data on new snow and snow cover water equivalent, or the respective energy balance components. Moreover, data should be made accessible to the scientific community, so that the latter can more accurately estimate climate change impacts on Himalayan snow cover and possible consequences thereof on runoff.

Technical Note: DEM from IRS-1C PAN stereo coverages over Himalayan glaciated region—accuracy and its utility

Satellite photogrammetric technique has been used for monitoring of fluctuations of Himalayan glaciers and the resulting changes in the elevations of glacier snouts. Two across-track stereo pairs from the Indian Remote Sensing Satellite (IRS)-1C covering parts of Basapa valley, a high altitude Himalayan glaciated terrain, were processed for generation of digital elevation models (DEM) and orthoimages using a softcopy photogrammetry workstation. Two glacier regions, viz., Janapa Garang and Shaune Garang glacier valley, were taken up for the study. For one glacier region, the stereo pair was generated in a workstation by replacing an image of one pair with an image from the other pair. Interchanging input image and reference image in the new pair has resulted in improvement in image matching. Accuracies related to location (in terms of latitude and longitude) and elevation of image features in the accumulation zone, ablation zone and nonglaciated regions with respect topographical map were checked. Based on geographical location and elevation of the snout derived from a topographical map of 1962 and the DEM and orthoimage of 1997, the two glaciers have been observed to have a retreat of about 690 m and 925 m, respectively.