Anita Sen

The pediatric sepsis biomarker risk model

IntroductionThe intrinsic heterogeneity of clinical septic shock is a major challenge. For clinical trials, individual patient management, and quality improvement efforts, it is unclear which patients are least likely to survive and thus benefit from alternative treatment approaches. A robust risk stratification tool would greatly aid decision-making. The objective of our study was to derive and test a multi-biomarker-based risk model to predict outcome in pediatric septic shock.MethodsTwelve candidate serum protein stratification biomarkers were identified from previous genome-wide expression profiling. To derive the risk stratification tool, biomarkers were measured in serum samples from 220 unselected children with septic shock, obtained during the first 24 hours of admission to the intensive care unit. Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis was used to generate a decision tree to predict 28-day all-cause mortality based on both biomarkers and clinical variables. The derived tree was subsequently tested in an independent cohort of 135 children with septic shock.ResultsThe derived decision tree included five biomarkers. In the derivation cohort, sensitivity for mortality was 91% (95% CI 70 - 98), specificity was 86% (80 - 90), positive predictive value was 43% (29 - 58), and negative predictive value was 99% (95 - 100). When applied to the test cohort, sensitivity was 89% (64 - 98) and specificity was 64% (55 - 73). In an updated model including all 355 subjects in the combined derivation and test cohorts, sensitivity for mortality was 93% (79 - 98), specificity was 74% (69 - 79), positive predictive value was 32% (24 - 41), and negative predictive value was 99% (96 - 100). False positive subjects in the updated model had greater illness severity compared to the true negative subjects, as measured by persistence of organ failure, length of stay, and intensive care unit free days.ConclusionsThe pediatric sepsis biomarker risk model (PERSEVERE; PEdiatRic SEpsis biomarkEr Risk modEl) reliably identifies children at risk of death and greater illness severity from pediatric septic shock. PERSEVERE has the potential to substantially enhance clinical decision making, to adjust for risk in clinical trials, and to serve as a septic shock-specific quality metric.

Interleukin-27 is a novel candidate diagnostic biomarker for bacterial infection in critically ill children

IntroductionDifferentiating between sterile inflammation and bacterial infection in critically ill patients with fever and other signs of the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) remains a clinical challenge. The objective of our study was to mine an existing genome-wide expression database for the discovery of candidate diagnostic biomarkers to predict the presence of bacterial infection in critically ill children.MethodsGenome-wide expression data were compared between patients with SIRS having negative bacterial cultures (n = 21) and patients with sepsis having positive bacterial cultures (n = 60). Differentially expressed genes were subjected to a leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) procedure to predict SIRS or sepsis classes. Serum concentrations of interleukin-27 (IL-27) and procalcitonin (PCT) were compared between 101 patients with SIRS and 130 patients with sepsis. All data represent the first 24 hours of meeting criteria for either SIRS or sepsis.ResultsTwo hundred twenty one gene probes were differentially regulated between patients with SIRS and patients with sepsis. The LOOCV procedure correctly predicted 86% of the SIRS and sepsis classes, and Epstein-Barr virus-induced gene 3 (EBI3) had the highest predictive strength. Computer-assisted image analyses of gene-expression mosaics were able to predict infection with a specificity of 90% and a positive predictive value of 94%. Because EBI3 is a subunit of the heterodimeric cytokine, IL-27, we tested the ability of serum IL-27 protein concentrations to predict infection. At a cut-point value of ≥5 ng/ml, serum IL-27 protein concentrations predicted infection with a specificity and a positive predictive value of >90%, and the overall performance of IL-27 was generally better than that of PCT. A decision tree combining IL-27 and PCT improved overall predictive capacity compared with that of either biomarker alone.ConclusionsGenome-wide expression analysis has provided the foundation for the identification of IL-27 as a novel candidate diagnostic biomarker for predicting bacterial infection in critically ill children. Additional studies will be required to test further the diagnostic performance of IL-27.The microarray data reported in this article have been deposited in the Gene Expression Omnibus under accession number GSE4607.

Testing the Prognostic Accuracy of the Updated Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model

Background We previously derived and validated a risk model to estimate mortality probability in children with septic shock (PERSEVERE; PEdiatRic SEpsis biomarkEr Risk modEl). PERSEVERE uses five biomarkers and age to estimate mortality probability. After the initial derivation and validation of PERSEVERE, we combined the derivation and validation cohorts (n = 355) and updated PERSEVERE. An important step in the development of updated risk models is to test their accuracy using an independent test cohort. Objective To test the prognostic accuracy of the updated version PERSEVERE in an independent test cohort. Methods Study subjects were recruited from multiple pediatric intensive care units in the United States. Biomarkers were measured in 182 pediatric subjects with septic shock using serum samples obtained during the first 24 hours of presentation. The accuracy of PERSEVERE 28-day mortality risk estimate was tested using diagnostic test statistics, and the net reclassification improvement (NRI) was used to test whether PERSEVERE adds information to a physiology-based scoring system. Results Mortality in the test cohort was 13.2%. Using a risk cut-off of 2.5%, the sensitivity of PERSEVERE for mortality was 83% (95% CI 62–95), specificity was 75% (68–82), positive predictive value was 34% (22–47), and negative predictive value was 97% (91–99). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.81 (0.70–0.92). The false positive subjects had a greater degree of organ failure burden and longer intensive care unit length of stay, compared to the true negative subjects. When adding PERSEVERE to a physiology-based scoring system, the net reclassification improvement was 0.91 (0.47–1.35; p<0.001). Conclusions The updated version of PERSEVERE estimates mortality probability reliably in a heterogeneous test cohort of children with septic shock and provides information over and above a physiology-based scoring system.

Post-ICU admission fluid balance and pediatric septic shock outcomes: A risk-stratified analysis

Objective:Observed associations between fluid balance and septic shock outcomes are likely confounded by initial mortality risk. We conducted a risk-stratified analysis of the association between post-ICU admission fluid balance and pediatric septic shock outcomes. Design:Retrospective analysis of an ongoing multicenter pediatric septic shock clinical and biological database. Setting:Seventeen PICUs in the United States. Patients:Three hundred and seventeen children with septic shock. Interventions:None. Measurements and Main Results:We stratified subjects into three mortality risk categories (low, intermediate, and high) using a validated biomarker-based stratification tool. Within each category, we assessed three fluid balance variables: total fluid intake/kg/d during the first 24 hours, percent positive fluid balance during the first 24 hours, and cumulative percent positive fluid balance up to 7 days. We used logistic regression to estimate the effect of fluid balance on the odds of 28-day mortality, and on complicated course, which we defined as either death within 28 days or persistence of two or more organ failures at 7 days. There were 40 deaths, and 91 subjects had a complicated course. Increased cumulative percent positive fluid balance was associated with mortality in the low-risk cohort (n = 204; odds ratio, 1.035; 95% CI, 1.004–1.066) but not in the intermediate- and high-risk cohorts. No other associations with mortality were observed. Fluid intake, percent positive fluid balance in the first 24 hours, and cumulative percent positive fluid balance were all associated with increased odds of a complicated course in the low-risk cohort but not in the intermediate- and high-risk cohorts. Conclusions:When stratified for mortality risk, increased fluid intake and positive fluid balance after ICU admission are associated with worse outcomes in pediatric septic shock patients with a low initial mortality risk but not in patients at moderate or high mortality risk.

The Temporal Version of the Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model

Background PERSEVERE is a risk model for estimating mortality probability in pediatric septic shock, using five biomarkers measured within 24 hours of clinical presentation. Objective Here, we derive and test a temporal version of PERSEVERE (tPERSEVERE) that considers biomarker values at the first and third day following presentation to estimate the probability of a “complicated course”, defined as persistence of ≥2 organ failures at seven days after meeting criteria for septic shock, or death within 28 days. Methods Biomarkers were measured in the derivation cohort (n = 225) using serum samples obtained during days 1 and 3 of septic shock. Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis was used to derive a model to estimate the risk of a complicated course. The derived model was validated in the test cohort (n = 74), and subsequently updated using the combined derivation and test cohorts. Results A complicated course occurred in 23% of the derivation cohort subjects. The derived model had a sensitivity for a complicated course of 90% (95% CI 78–96), specificity was 70% (62–77), positive predictive value was 47% (37–58), and negative predictive value was 96% (91–99). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.85 (0.79–0.90). Similar test characteristics were observed in the test cohort. The updated model had a sensitivity of 91% (81–96), a specificity of 70% (64–76), a positive predictive value of 47% (39–56), and a negative predictive value of 96% (92–99). Conclusions tPERSEVERE reasonably estimates the probability of a complicated course in children with septic shock. tPERSEVERE could potentially serve as an adjunct to physiological assessments for monitoring how risk for poor outcomes changes during early interventions in pediatric septic shock.

Corticosteroids and pediatric septic shock outcomes: A risk stratified analysis

Background The potential benefits of corticosteroids for septic shock may depend on initial mortality risk. Objective We determined associations between corticosteroids and outcomes in children with septic shock who were stratified by initial mortality risk. Methods We conducted a retrospective analysis of an ongoing, multi-center pediatric septic shock clinical and biological database. Using a validated biomarker-based stratification tool (PERSEVERE), 496 subjects were stratified into three initial mortality risk strata (low, intermediate, and high). Subjects receiving corticosteroids during the initial 7 days of admission (n = 252) were compared to subjects who did not receive corticosteroids (n = 244). Logistic regression was used to model the effects of corticosteroids on 28-day mortality and complicated course, defined as death within 28 days or persistence of two or more organ failures at 7 days. Results Subjects who received corticosteroids had greater organ failure burden, higher illness severity, higher mortality, and a greater requirement for vasoactive medications, compared to subjects who did not receive corticosteroids. PERSEVERE-based mortality risk did not differ between the two groups. For the entire cohort, corticosteroids were associated with increased risk of mortality (OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.3–4.0, p = 0.004) and a complicated course (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.1–2.5, p = 0.012). Within each PERSEVERE-based stratum, corticosteroid administration was not associated with improved outcomes. Similarly, corticosteroid administration was not associated with improved outcomes among patients with no comorbidities, nor in groups of patients stratified by PRISM. Conclusions Risk stratified analysis failed to demonstrate any benefit from corticosteroids in this pediatric septic shock cohort.

Deficiency of matrix metalloproteinase-13 increases inflammation after acute lung injury

ABSTRACT Human and animal studies of acute lung injury (ALI) have shown that matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) play an important role in disease pathogenesis, but despite being detected during ALI, the function of the collagenase MMP-13 in ALI is unknown. To evaluate this role of MMP-13, mice deficient in MMP-13 (KO) were examined after hyperoxic lung injury, and compared to wild-type (WT) mice. There was no survival difference between KO and WT mice. There was also no difference in fibrosis between WT and KO mice, as determined by hydroxyproline content and collagen expression by real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Within the bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL), the KO mice exhibited a significant increase in inflammatory cells, when compared to the WT mice (5.51 × 105 versus 2.35 × 105 cells/mL; P = .001). Increased levels of the chemokine monocyte chemoattractant protein 1 (MCP-1) were observed in the lungs of the KO mice, confirmed via immunohistochemistry. In a subsequent in vitro experiment, MMP-13 was shown to cleave MCP-1. In ALI in the MMP-13 KO mice, MCP-1 could therefore remain active and potentially attract macrophages to the BAL. This study suggests a direct role for MMP-13 in modifying the inflammatory response in the lung after ALI.

Variability in the Implementation of Rapid Response Teams at Academic American Pediatric Hospitals

Pediatric rapid response teams have become standard over the past decade, but are organized heterogeneously at US academic hospitals, with rare financial support. To compare rapid response team efficacy, pediatric hospitals should agree on standard outcome measures, whether it be a standard definition of floor arrest or of clinical deterioration.

Electronic surveillance for catheter-associated urinary tract infections at a university-affiliated children's hospital.

We sought to describe the characteristics of catheter-associated urinary tract infections (CAUTIs) in a childrens hospital while demonstrating efficacy of electronic identification of CAUTIs. There were 25 CAUTIs identified over 24 months, with most (88%) occurring in the intensive care units (ICUs). The incidence of ICU CAUTIs decreased during the study period (P = .04). Concordance between electronic identification and validation by infection control staff was 83% and increased to 100% with correction of nursing documentation.

Description of hot debriefings after in-hospital cardiac arrests in an international pediatric quality improvement collaborative

BACKGROUND The American Heart Association recommends debriefing after attempted resuscitation from in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) to improve resuscitation quality and outcomes. This is the first published study detailing the utilization, process and content of hot debriefings after pediatric IHCA. METHODS Using prospective data from the Pediatric Resuscitation Quality Collaborative (pediRES-Q), we analyzed data from 227 arrests occurring between February 1, 2016, and August 31, 2017. Hot debriefings, defined as occurring within minutes to hours of IHCA, were evaluated using a modified Team Emergency Assessment Measure framework for qualitative content analysis of debriefing comments. RESULTS Hot debriefings were performed following 108 of 227 IHCAs (47%). The median interval to debriefing was 130 min (Interquartile range [IQR] 45, 270). Median debriefing duration was 15 min (IQR 10, 20). Physicians facilitated 95% of debriefings, with a median of 9 participants (IQR 7, 11). After multivariate analysis, accounting for hospital site, debriefing frequency was not associated with patient age, gender, race, illness category or unit type. The most frequent positive (plus) comments involved cooperation/coordination (60%), communication (47%) and clinical standards (41%). The most frequent negative (delta) comments involved equipment (46%), cooperation/coordination (45%), and clinical standards (36%). CONCLUSION Approximately half of pediatric IHCAs were followed by hot debriefings. Hot debriefings were multi-disciplinary, timely, and often addressed issues of team cooperation/coordination, communication, clinical standards, and equipment. Additional studies are warranted to identify barriers to hot debriefings and to evaluate the impact of these debriefings on patient outcomes.