Anmin Duan

Thermal Controls on the Asian Summer Monsoon

The Asian summer monsoon affects more than sixty percent of the worlds population; understanding its controlling factors is becoming increasingly important due to the expanding human influence on the environment and climate and the need to adapt to global climate change. Various mechanisms have been suggested; however, an overarching paradigm delineating the dominant factors for its generation and strength remains debated. Here we use observation data and numerical experiments to demonstrates that the Asian summer monsoon systems are controlled mainly by thermal forcing whereas large-scale orographically mechanical forcing is not essential: the South Asian monsoon south of 20°N by land–sea thermal contrast, its northern part by the thermal forcing of the Iranian Plateau, and the East Asian monsoon and the eastern part of the South Asian monsoon by the thermal forcing of the Tibetan Plateau.

The Influence of Mechanical and Thermal Forcing by the Tibetan Plateau on Asian Climate

Abstract This paper attempts to provide some new understanding of the mechanical as well as thermal effects of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) on the circulation and climate in Asia through diagnosis and numerical experiments. The air column over the TP descends in winter and ascends in summer and regulates the surface Asian monsoon flow. Sensible heating on the sloping lateral surfaces appears from the authors’ experiments to be the major driving source. The retarding and deflecting effects of the TP in winter generate an asymmetric dipole zonal-deviation circulation, with a large anticyclone gyre to the north and a cyclonic gyre to the south. Such a dipole deviation circulation enhances the cold outbreaks from the north over East Asia, results in a dry climate in south Asia and a moist climate over the Indochina peninsula and south China, and forms the persistent rainfall in early spring (PRES) in south China. In summer the TP heating generates a cyclonic spiral zonal-deviation circulation in the lower troposp...

Weakening Trend in the Atmospheric Heat Source over the Tibetan Plateau during Recent Decades. Part I: Observations

Abstract The trend in the atmospheric heat source over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) during the last four decades is evaluated using historical observations at 74 meteorological stations in the period of 1961–2003 and satellite radiation data from 1983 to 2004. It is shown that in contrast to the strong surface and troposphere warming, the sensible heat (SH) flux over the TP exhibits a significant decreasing trend since the mid-1980s. The largest trend occurs in spring, a season of the highest SH over the TP. The subdued surface wind speed contributes most to the decreasing trend. At the same time, the radiative cooling effect in the air column enhances persistently. Despite the fact that the in situ latent heating presents a weak increasing trend, the springtime atmospheric heat source over the TP loses its strength during two recent decades. Further investigation suggests that the weakened SH over the TP may be part of the global circulation shift.

Revisiting Asian monsoon formation and change associated with Tibetan Plateau forcing: I. Formation

Numerical experiments with different idealized land and mountain distributions are carried out to study the formation of the Asian monsoon and related coupling processes. Results demonstrate that when there is only extratropical continent located between 0 and 120°E and between 20/30°N and the North Pole, a rather weak monsoon rainband appears along the southern border of the continent, coexisting with an intense intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The continuous ITCZ surrounds the whole globe, prohibits the development of near-surface cross-equatorial flow, and collects water vapor from tropical oceans, resulting in very weak monsoon rainfall. When tropical lands are integrated, the ITCZ over the longitude domain where the extratropical continent exists disappears as a consequence of the development of a strong surface cross-equatorial flow from the winter hemisphere to the summer hemisphere. In addition, an intense interaction between the two hemispheres develops, tropical water vapor is transported to the subtropics by the enhanced poleward flow, and a prototype of the Asian monsoon appears. The Tibetan Plateau acts to enhance the coupling between the lower and upper tropospheric circulations and between the subtropical and tropical monsoon circulations, resulting in an intensification of the East Asian summer monsoon and a weakening of the South Asian summer monsoon. Linking the Iranian Plateau to the Tibetan Plateau substantially reduces the precipitation over Africa and increases the precipitation over the Arabian Sea and the northern Indian subcontinent, effectively contributing to the development of the South Asian summer monsoon.

Does the climate warming hiatus exist over the Tibetan Plateau

The surface air temperature change over the Tibetan Plateau is determined based on historical observations from 1980 to 2013. In contrast to the cooling trend in the rest of China, and the global warming hiatus post-1990s, an accelerated warming trend has appeared over the Tibetan Plateau during 1998–2013 (0.25 °C decade−1), compared with that during 1980–1997 (0.21 °C decade−1). Further results indicate that, to some degree, such an accelerated warming trend might be attributable to cloud–radiation feedback. The increased nocturnal cloud over the northern Tibetan Plateau would warm the nighttime temperature via enhanced atmospheric back-radiation, while the decreased daytime cloud over the southern Tibetan Plateau would induce the daytime sunshine duration to increase, resulting in surface air temperature warming. Meanwhile, the in situ surface wind speed has recovered gradually since 1998, and thus the energy concentration cannot explain the accelerated warming trend over the Tibetan Plateau after the 1990s. It is suggested that cloud–radiation feedback may play an important role in modulating the recent accelerated warming trend over the Tibetan Plateau.

Trends in Summer Rainfall over China Associated with the Tibetan Plateau Sensible Heat Source during 1980–2008

AbstractThe impacts of the thermal forcing over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in spring on changes in summer rainfall in China are investigated using historical records from the period between 1980 and 2008. The spring sensible heat (SH) flux and snow depth over the TP both decreased over this time period, although the trend in SH was more significant than that in snow depth. The similarity between patterns of precipitation trends over China and corresponding patterns of regression coefficients on the leading mode of spring SH change over the TP demonstrates the distinct contribution of changes in TP SH during spring. Enhanced precipitation in southern China was accompanied by increases in heavy rainfall, precipitation intensity, and the frequency of precipitation events, while reduced precipitation in northern China and northeastern China was primarily associated with decreases in the frequency of precipitation events. Further analysis using observational data and numerical simulations reveals that the reduct...

Time-lagged impact of spring sensible heat over the Tibetan Plateau on the summer rainfall anomaly in East China: case studies using the WRF model

This study explores the time-lagged impact of the spring sensible heat (SH) source over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) on the summer rainfall anomaly in East China using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Numerical experiments for 2003 indicate that a spring SH anomaly over the TP can maintain its impact until summer and lead to a strong atmospheric heat source, characterized both by the enhanced SH over the western TP and enhanced latent heat of condensation to the east. Wave activity diagnosis reveals that the enhanced TP heating forces a Rossby wave train over the downstream regions. A cyclonic response over the northeast TP brings about a low-level northerly anomaly over northern China, while an anticyclonic response over the western Pacific enhances the subtropical high and the low-level southerly on its western flank. As a result, cold and dry airflow from mid-high latitudes, and warm and wet airflow from tropical oceans converge around the Huaihe River basin. In addition, warm advection originating from the TP induces vigorous ascending motion over the convergence belt. Under these favorable circulation conditions the eastward-propagating vortexes initiated over the TP intensify the torrential rainfall processes over the Huaihe River basin. In contrast, additional experiments considering the year 2001 with weak spring SH over the TP and an overall southward retreat of the summer rainfall belt in East China further demonstrate the role of spring SH over the TP in regulating the interannual variability of EASM in terms of wave activity and synoptic disturbances.

Persistent Weakening Trend in the Spring Sensible Heat Source over the Tibetan Plateau and Its Impact on the Asian Summer Monsoon

Usingadatasetextendedbytheadditionofdatafor2004‐08,thisstudyreexaminedthetrendinthesensible heating (SH) flux at 73 meteorological stations over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) during 1980‐2008 and investigated its impact on monsoon precipitation in the surrounding region. In contrast to ongoing climate warming, a weakening trend in SH is persistent over most of the plateau, despite a sharp increase in the ground‐airtemperaturedifferencein 2004‐08. TheweakeningtrendinSHovertheTPisprimarilyaresponse to the spatial nonuniformity of large-scale warming over the East Asian continent, which is characterized by much greater warming amplitude at mid- and high latitudes than over the tropics and subtropics. Furthermore, the suppressed air pump effect, which is driven by SH over the TP and acts as a strong forcing source, gives rise to reduced precipitation along the southern and eastern slopes of the plateau, and increased rainfall over northeastern India and the Bay of Bengal. No significantly stable correlation exists between the SH source over the TP and the overall trend or interdecadal variability in the East Asian or South Asian summer monsoon.

Weather and Climate Effects of the Tibetan Plateau

Progress in observation experiments and studies concerning the effects of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) on weather and climate during the last 5 years are reviewed. The mesoscale topography over the TP plays an important role in generating and enhancing mesoscale disturbances. These disturbances increase the surface sensible heat (SH) flux over the TP and propagate eastward to enhance convection and precipitation in the valley of Yangtze River. Some new evidence from both observations and numerical simulations shows that the southwesterly flow, which lies on the southeastern flank of the TP, is highly correlated with the SH of the southeastern TP in seasonal and interannual variability. The mechanical and thermal forcing of the TP is an important climatic cause of the spring persistent rains over southeastern China. Moreover, the thermodynamic processes over the TP can influence the atmospheric circulation and climate over North America and Europe by stimulating the large-scale teleconnections such as the Asian-Pacific oscillation and can affect the atmospheric circulation over the southern Indian Ocean. Estimating the trend in the atmospheric heat source over the TP shows that, in contrast to the strong surface and troposphere warming, the SH over the TP has undergone a significant decreasing trend since the mid-1980s. Despite the fact that in situ latent heating presents a weak increasing trend, the springtime atmospheric heat source over the TP is losing its strength. This gives rise to reduced precipitation along the southern and eastern slopes of the TP and to increased rainfall over northeastern India and the Bay of Bengal.

Weakening Trend in the Atmospheric Heat Source over the Tibetan Plateau during Recent Decades. Part II: Connection with Climate Warming

Abstract In Part I the authors have shown that heating sources in spring over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), and in particular the sensible heat flux (SHF), exhibit a significant weakening trend since the mid-1980s that is induced mainly by decreased surface wind speed. The possible reason of such a change is further investigated in Part II by analyzing historical observations and the NCEP/Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis. The steady declining trend in the surface wind speed over the TP after the 1970s arises mainly from the zonal component. Since the mean altitude of the TP is about 600 hPa and the surface flow is controlled by the East Asian subtropical westerly jet (EASWJ) for most parts of the year, the substantial tropospheric warming in the mid- and high latitudes to the north of the plateau results in a decrease of the meridional pressure gradient in the subtropics. As a result, the EASWJ and the surface winds over the TP are decelerated. Moreover, changes of the general circulation in the twentiet...