Ann Hillberg Seitzinger

Measuring Welfare Effects of an FMD Outbreak in the United States

Questions have been raised regarding the economic costs of food-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in the United States. This analysis examines how welfare changes are measured and argues that they must be decomposed by groups. Producers with animals quarantined and slaughtered because of FMD measure their welfare change using lost sales. Producers not quarantined measure their welfare change using producer surplus. The change in national sales revenue is accurate when the supply elasticity is low. Welfare changes for consumers also must be decomposed because the change in aggregate consumer surplus hides important shifts in welfare among groups of consumers.

Economic Impacts of Regionalization of a Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreak in the United States

This analysis examines the economic impact of an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and the consequences of regionalization. The results suggest that an outbreak would have serious economic effects. Depending on the regionalization scenario, returns to capital and management in the poultry meat and egg sectors would fall between

Measuring the national economic benefits of reducing livestock mortality

602 million and

Assessment of the economic impact of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome on swine production in the United States

853 million dollars over 16 quarters. Consumers of poultry meat lose

Potential revenue impact of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in the United States.

900 million in consumer surplus in the first four quarters, a decline of 10.7%. Egg consumer surplus falls 17.1%. Regionalization lowers the economic welfare losses for producers because it dampens the export loss.

Supply reductions, export restrictions, and expectations for hog returns in a potential classical swine fever outbreak in the United States.

A simple model for calculating the macroeconomic impact of improving livestock efficiency through better herd health is presented. Using economic surplus analysis with preweaning mortality in swine as the example, the model demonstrates the importance of improving livestock production efficiency in the face of international competition and how consumers gain from improved animal health. The model can be used to examine the appropriateness of expenditures on animal disease control programs and animal health research.