Ann Marie Navar-Boggan

Proportion of US Adults Potentially Affected by the 2014 Hypertension Guideline

IMPORTANCE The new 2014 blood pressure (BP) guideline released by the panel members appointed to the Eighth Joint National Committee (JNC 8; 2014 BP guideline) proposed less restrictive BP targets for adults aged 60 years or older and for those with diabetes and chronic kidney disease. OBJECTIVE To estimate the proportion of US adults potentially affected by recent changes in recommendations for management of hypertension. DESIGN Cross-sectional, nationally representative survey. PARTICIPANTS Using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey between 2005 and 2010 (n = 16,372), we evaluated hypertension control and treatment recommendations for US adults. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Proportion of adults estimated to meet guideline-based BP targets under the 2014 BP guideline and under the previous seventh Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure (JNC 7) guideline. RESULTS The proportion of younger adults (18-59 years) with treatment-eligible hypertension under the JNC 7 guideline was 20.3% (95% CI, 19.1%-21.4%) and decreased to 19.2% (95% CI, 18.1%-20.4%) under the 2014 BP guideline. Larger declines were observed among older adults (≥60 years), decreasing from 68.9% (95% CI, 66.9%-70.8%) under JNC 7 to 61.2% (95% CI, 59.3%-63.0%) under the 2014 BP guideline. The proportion of adults with treatment-eligible hypertension who met BP goals increased slightly for younger adults, from 41.2% (95% CI, 38.1%-44.3%) under JNC 7 to 47.5% (95% CI, 44.4%-50.6%) under the 2014 BP guideline, and more substantially for older adults, from 40.0% (95% CI, 37.8%-42.3%) under JNC 7 to 65.8% (95% CI, 63.7%-67.9%) under the 2014 BP guideline. Overall, 1.6% (95% CI, 1.3%-1.9%) of US adults aged 18-59 years and 27.6% (95% CI, 25.9%-29.3%) of adults aged 60 years or older were receiving BP-lowering medication and meeting more stringent JNC 7 targets. These patients may be eligible for less stringent or no BP therapy with the 2014 BP guideline. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Compared with the JNC 7 guideline, the 2014 BP guideline from the panel members appointed to the JNC 8 was associated with a reduction in the proportion of US adults recommended for hypertension treatment and a substantial increase in the proportion of adults considered to have achieved goal BP, primarily in older adults.

Hyperlipidemia in Early Adulthood Increases Long-Term Risk of Coronary Heart Disease

Background— Many young adults with moderate hyperlipidemia do not meet statin treatment criteria under the new American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology cholesterol guidelines because they focus on 10-year cardiovascular risk. We evaluated the association between years of exposure to hypercholesterolemia in early adulthood and future coronary heart disease (CHD) risk. Methods and Results— We examined Framingham Offspring Cohort data to identify adults without incident cardiovascular disease to 55 years of age (n=1478), and explored the association between duration of moderate hyperlipidemia (non–high-density lipoprotein cholesterol≥160 mg/dL) in early adulthood and subsequent CHD. At median 15-year follow-up, CHD rates were significantly elevated among adults with prolonged hyperlipidemia exposure by 55 years of age: 4.4% for those with no exposure, 8.1% for those with 1 to 10 years of exposure, and 16.5% for those with 11 to 20 years of exposure (P<0.001); this association persisted after adjustment for other cardiac risk factors including non–high-density lipoprotein cholesterol at 55 years of age (hazard ratio, 1.39; 95% confidence interval, 1.05–1.85 per decade of hyperlipidemia). Overall, 85% of young adults with prolonged hyperlipidemia would not have been recommended for statin therapy at 40 years of age under current national guidelines. However, among those not considered statin therapy candidates at 55 years of age, there remained a significant association between cumulative exposure to hyperlipidemia in young adulthood and subsequent CHD risk (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.67; 95% confidence interval, 1.06–2.64). Conclusions— Cumulative exposure to hyperlipidemia in young adulthood increases the subsequent risk of CHD in a dose-dependent fashion. Adults with prolonged exposure to even moderate elevations in non–high-density lipoprotein cholesterol have elevated risk for future CHD and may benefit from more aggressive primary prevention.

Association of vaccine-related attitudes and beliefs between parents and health care providers.

OBJECTIVES Health care providers influence parental vaccination decisions. Over 90% of parents report receiving vaccine information from their childs health care provider. The majority of parents of vaccinated children and children exempt from school immunization requirements report their childs primary provider is a good source for vaccine information. The role of health care providers in influencing parents who refuse vaccines has not been fully explored. The objective of the study was to determine the association between vaccine-related attitudes and beliefs of health care providers and parents. METHODS We surveyed parents and primary care providers of vaccinated and unvaccinated school age children in four states in 2002-2003 and 2005. We measured key immunization beliefs including perceived risks and benefits of vaccination. Odds ratios for associations between parental and provider responses were calculated using logistic regression. RESULTS Surveys were completed by 1367 parents (56.1% response rate) and 551 providers (84.3% response rate). Parents with high confidence in vaccine safety were more likely to have providers with similar beliefs, however viewpoints regarding disease susceptibility and severity and vaccine efficacy were not associated. Parents whose providers believed that children get more immunizations than are good for them had 4.6 higher odds of holding that same belief compared to parents whose providers did not have that belief. CONCLUSIONS The beliefs of childrens health care providers and parents, including those regarding vaccine safety, are similar. Provider beliefs may contribute to parental decisions to accept, delay or forgo vaccinations. Parents may selectively choose providers who have similar beliefs to their own.

Using age- and sex-specific risk thresholds to guide statin therapy: one size may not fit all.

BACKGROUND New cholesterol guidelines emphasize 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) to identify adults eligible for statin therapy as primary prevention. Whether these CVD risk thresholds should be individualized by age and sex has not been explored. OBJECTIVES This study evaluated the potential impact of incorporating age- and sex-specific CVD risk thresholds into current cholesterol guidelines. METHODS Using data from the Framingham Offspring Study, this study assessed current treatment recommendations among age- and sex-specific groups in 3,685 participants free of CVD. Then, it evaluated how varying age- and sex-specific 10-year CVD risk thresholds for statin treatment affect the sensitivity and specificity for incident 10-year CVD events. RESULTS Basing statin therapy recommendations on a 10-year fixed risk threshold of 7.5% results in lower statin consideration among women than men (63% vs. 33%; p<0.0001), yet most of the study participants who were 66 to 75 years of age were recommended for statin treatment (90.3%). The fixed 7.5% threshold had relatively low sensitivity for capturing 10-year events in younger women and men (40 to 55 years of age). Sensitivity of the recommendations was substantially improved when the treatment threshold was reduced to 5% in participants who were 40 to 55 years of age. Among older adults (66 to 75 years of age), specificity was poor, but when the treatment threshold was raised to 10% in women and 15% in men, specificity significantly improved, with minimal loss in sensitivity. CONCLUSIONS Cholesterol treatment recommendations could be improved by using individualized age- and sex-specific CVD risk thresholds.

Pediatric-Specific Antimicrobial Susceptibility Data and Empiric Antibiotic Selection

OBJECTIVE: Duke University Health System (DUHS) generates annual antibiograms combining adult and pediatric data. We hypothesized significant susceptibility differences exist for pediatric isolates and that distributing these results would alter antibiotic choices. METHODS: Susceptibility rates for Escherichia coli isolates from patients aged ≤12 years between July 2009 and September 2010 were compared with the 2009 DUHS antibiogram. Pediatric attending and resident physicians answered case-based vignettes about children aged 3 months and 12 years with urinary tract infections. Each vignette contained 3 identical scenarios with no antibiogram, the 2009 DUHS antibiogram, and a pediatric-specific antibiogram provided. Effective antibiotics exhibited >80% in vitro susceptibility. Frequency of antibiotic selection was analyzed by using descriptive statistics. RESULTS: Three hundred seventy-five pediatric isolates were identified. Pediatric isolates were more resistant to ampicillin and trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (TMP-SMX) and less resistant to amoxicillin-clavulanate and ciprofloxacin (P < .0005 for all). Seventy-five resident and attending physicians completed surveys. In infant vignettes, physicians selected amoxicillin-clavulanate (P < .05) and nitrofurantoin (P < .01) more often and TMP-SMX (P < .01) less often with pediatric-specific data. Effective antibiotic choices increased from 68.6% to 82.2% (P = .06) to 92.5% (P < .01) across scenarios. In adolescent vignettes, providers reduced TMP-SMX use from 66.2% to 42.6% to 19.0% (P < .01 for both). Effective antibiotic choices increased from 32.4% to 57.4% to 79.4% (P < .01 and P = .01). CONCLUSIONS: Pediatric E. coli isolates differ significantly in antimicrobial susceptibility at our institution, particularly to frequently administered oral antibiotics. Knowledge of pediatric-specific data altered empirical antibiotic choices in case vignettes. Care of pediatric patients could be improved with use of a pediatric-specific antibiogram.

Congenital rubella syndrome and autism spectrum disorder prevented by rubella vaccination - United States, 2001-2010

BackgroundCongenital rubella syndrome (CRS) is associated with several negative outcomes, including autism spectrum disorders (ASDs). The objective of this study was to estimate the numbers of CRS and ASD cases prevented by rubella vaccination in the United States from 2001 through 2010.MethodsPrevention estimates were calculated through simple mathematical modeling, with values of model parameters determined from published literature. Model parameters included pre-vaccine era CRS incidence, vaccine era CRS incidence, the number of live births per year, and the percentage of CRS cases presenting with an ASD.ResultsBased on our estimates, 16,600 CRS cases (range: 8300-62,250) were prevented by rubella vaccination from 2001 through 2010 in the United States. An estimated 1228 ASD cases were prevented by rubella vaccination in the United States during this time period. Simulating a slight expansion in ASD diagnostic criteria in recent decades, we estimate that a minimum of 830 ASD cases and a maximum of 6225 ASD cases were prevented.ConclusionsWe estimate that rubella vaccination prevented substantial numbers of CRS and ASD cases in the United States from 2001 through 2010. These findings provide additional incentive to maintain high measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccination coverage.

Accuracy and validation of an automated electronic algorithm to identify patients with atrial fibrillation at risk for stroke

BACKGROUND There is no universally accepted algorithm for identifying atrial fibrillation (AF) patients and stroke risk using electronic data for use in performance measures. METHODS Patients with AF seen in clinic were identified based on International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision(ICD-9) codes. CHADS(2) and CHA(2)DS(s)-Vasc scores were derived from a broad, 10-year algorithm using IICD-9 codes dating back 10 years and a restrictive, 1-year algorithm that required a diagnosis within the past year. Accuracy of claims-based AF diagnoses and of each stroke risk classification algorithm were evaluated using chart reviews for 300 patients. These algorithms were applied to assess system-wide anticoagulation rates. RESULTS Between 6/1/2011, and 5/31/2012, we identified 6,397 patients with AF. Chart reviews confirmed AF or atrial flutter in 95.7%. A 1-year algorithm using CHA(2)DS(2)-Vasc score ≥2 to identify patients at risk for stroke maximized positive predictive value (97.5% [negative predictive value 65.1%]). The PPV of the 10-year algorithm using CHADS(2) was 88.0%; 12% those identified as high-risk had CHADS(2) scores <2. Anticoagulation rates were identical using 1-year and 10-year algorithms for patients with CHADS(2) scores ≥2 (58.5% on anticoagulation) and CHA(2)DS(2)-Vasc scores ≥2 (56.0% on anticoagulation). CONCLUSIONS Automated methods can be used to identify patients with prevalent AF indicated for anticoagulation but may have misclassification up to 12%, which limits the utility of relying on administrative data alone for quality assessment. Misclassification is minimized by requiring comorbidity diagnoses within the prior year and using a CHA(2)DS(2)-Vasc based algorithm. Despite differences in accuracy between algorithms, system-wide anticoagulation rates assessed were similar regardless of algorithm used.

Are Recent Medical Graduates More Skeptical of Vaccines

Rates of delay and refusal of recommended childhood vaccines are increasing in many U.S. communities. Children’s health care providers have a strong influence on parents’ knowledge, attitudes, and beliefs about vaccines. Provider attitudes towards immunizations vary and affect their immunization advocacy. One factor that may contribute to this variability is their familiarity with vaccine-preventable diseases and their sequelae. The purpose of this study was to investigate the association of health care provider year of graduation with vaccines and vaccine-preventable disease beliefs. We conducted a cross sectional survey in 2005 of primary care providers identified by parents of children whose children were fully vaccinated or exempt from one or more school immunization requirements. We examined the association of provider graduation cohort (5 years) with beliefs on immunization, disease susceptibility, disease severity, vaccine safety, and vaccine efficacy. Surveys were completed by 551 providers (84.3% response rate). More recent health care provider graduates had 15% decreased odds of believing vaccines are efficacious compared to graduates from a previous 5 year period; had lower odds of believing that many commonly used childhood vaccines were safe; and 3.7% of recent graduates believed that immunizations do more harm than good. Recent health care provider graduates have a perception of the risk-benefit balance of immunization, which differs from that of their older counterparts. This change has the potential to be reflected in their immunization advocacy and affect parental attitudes.

The feasibility and accuracy of evaluating lipid management performance metrics using an electronic health record

BACKGROUND Over the past decade, electronic health records (EHRs) have emerged as a potential tool to assess quality of care; however, the feasibility and accuracy of EHRs to assess adherence to lipid management performance measures have not been evaluated. METHODS We created a retrospective cohort of 3779 patients with coronary artery disease who were followed up in a cardiology clinic at an academic medical center using an EHR database. Of these 3779 patients, 300 randomly-selected charts were reviewed to identify reasons for failure to adhere to lipid management performance measures. RESULTS Based on the EHR, a low-density lipoprotein cholesterol measurement was obtained in 73% of patients within the past 3 years; of which, 34% had low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels ≥100 mg/dL and statin therapy had been prescribed in 88%. Manual chart review revealed that many of these apparent failures were actually false positives, due to inaccurate capture of indications and contraindications to lipid measurement and statin prescription, patient/provider treatment preferences, and external data sources. CONCLUSIONS While it is possible to monitor adherence to lipid management performance measures using an EHR, the accuracy of this assessment is currently limited and may underestimate provider quality of care.

Variability in performance measures for assessment of hypertension control

BACKGROUND Definitions of multiple performance measures exist for the assessment of blood pressure control; however, limited data on how these technical variations may affect actual measured performance are available. METHODS We evaluated patients with hypertension followed routinely by cardiologists at Duke University Health System from 2009 to 2010. Provider hypertension control was compared based on reading at the last clinic visit vs the average blood pressure across all visits. The impact of home blood pressure measurements and patient exclusions endorsed by the American Heart Association, the American College of Cardiology, and the Physician Consortium for Performance Improvement were evaluated using medical record reviews. RESULTS Among 5,552 hypertensive patients, the rate of blood pressure control based on last clinic visit was 69.1%; however, significant clinic-to-clinic variability was seen in serial clinic blood pressure measurements in individual patients (average 18 mm Hg). As a result, provider performance ratings varied considerably depending on whether a single reading or average blood pressure reading was used. The inclusion of home blood pressure measurements resulted in modestly higher rates of blood pressure control performance (+6% overall). Similarly, excluding patients who met guideline-recommended exclusion criteria increased blood pressure control rates only slightly (+3% overall). In contrast, excluding patients who were on 2 or more antihypertensive medications would have raised blood pressure control rates to 96% overall. CONCLUSION Depending on definitions used, overall and provider-specific blood pressure control rates can vary considerably. Technical aspects of blood pressure performance measures may affect perceived quality gaps and comparative provider ratings.