Anna N. A. Tosteson

Surgical versus nonsurgical therapy for lumbar spinal stenosis.

BACKGROUND Surgery for spinal stenosis is widely performed, but its effectiveness as compared with nonsurgical treatment has not been shown in controlled trials. METHODS Surgical candidates with a history of at least 12 weeks of symptoms and spinal stenosis without spondylolisthesis (as confirmed on imaging) were enrolled in either a randomized cohort or an observational cohort at 13 U.S. spine clinics. Treatment was decompressive surgery or usual nonsurgical care. The primary outcomes were measures of bodily pain and physical function on the Medical Outcomes Study 36-item Short-Form General Health Survey (SF-36) and the modified Oswestry Disability Index at 6 weeks, 3 months, 6 months, and 1 and 2 years. RESULTS A total of 289 patients were enrolled in the randomized cohort, and 365 patients were enrolled in the observational cohort. At 2 years, 67% of patients who were randomly assigned to surgery had undergone surgery, whereas 43% of those who were randomly assigned to receive nonsurgical care had also undergone surgery. Despite the high level of nonadherence, the intention-to-treat analysis of the randomized cohort showed a significant treatment effect favoring surgery on the SF-36 scale for bodily pain, with a mean difference in change from baseline of 7.8 (95% confidence interval, 1.5 to 14.1); however, there was no significant difference in scores on physical function or on the Oswestry Disability Index. The as-treated analysis, which combined both cohorts and was adjusted for potential confounders, showed a significant advantage for surgery by 3 months for all primary outcomes; these changes remained significant at 2 years. CONCLUSIONS In the combined as-treated analysis, patients who underwent surgery showed significantly more improvement in all primary outcomes than did patients who were treated nonsurgically. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00000411 [ClinicalTrials.gov].).

Mortality, Disability, and Nursing Home Use for Persons with and without Hip Fracture: A Population‐Based Study

OBJECTIVES: To compare persons with and without hip fracture for subsequent mortality and change in disability and nursing home (NH) use.

Effect of hospital volume on in-hospital mortality with pancreaticoduodenectomy ☆ ☆☆ ★

BACKGROUND Reports of better results at national referral centers than at low-volume community hospitals have prompted calls for regionalizing pancreaticoduodenectomy (the Whipple procedure). We examined the relationship between hospital volume and mortality with this procedure across all US hospitals. METHODS Using information from the Medicare claims database, we performed a national cohort study of 7229 Medicare patients more than 65 years old undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy between 1992 and 1995. We divided the study population into approximate quartiles according to the hospitals average annual volume of pancreaticoduodenectomies in Medicare patients: very low (< 1/y), low (1-2/y), medium (2-5/y), and high (5+/y). Using multivariate logistic regression to account for potentially confounding patient characteristics, we examined the association between institutional volume and in-hospital mortality, our primary outcome measure. RESULTS More than 50% of Medicare patients a undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy received care at hospitals performing fewer than 2 such procedures per year. In-hospital mortality rates at these low- and very-low-volume hospitals were 3- to 4-fold higher than at high-volume hospitals (12% and 16%, respectively, vs 4%, P < .001). Within the high-volume quartile, the 10 hospitals with the nations highest volumes had lower mortality rates than the remaining high-volume centers (2.1% vs 6.2%, P < .01). The strong association between institutional volume and mortality could not be attributed to patient case-mix differences or referral bias. CONCLUSIONS Although volume-outcome relationships have been reported for many complex surgical procedures, hospital experience is particularly important with pancreaticoduodenectomy. Patients considering this procedure should be given the option of care at a high-volume referral center.

Surgical Versus Nonoperative Treatment for Lumbar Disc Herniation Four-Year Results for the Spine Patient Outcomes Research Trial (SPORT)

Study Design. Concurrent, prospective, randomized, and observational cohort study. Objective. To assess the 4-year outcomes of surgery versus nonoperative care. Summary of Background Data. Although randomized trials have demonstrated small short-term differences in favor of surgery, long-term outcomes comparing surgical to nonoperative treatment remain controversial. Methods. Surgical candidates with imaging-confirmed lumbar intervertebral disc herniation meeting SPORT eligibility criteria enrolled into prospective, randomized (501 participants), and observational cohorts (743 participants) at 13 spine clinics in 11 US states. Interventions were standard open discectomy versus usual nonoperative care. Main outcome measures were changes from baseline in the SF-36 Bodily Pain (BP) and Physical Function (PF) scales and the modified Oswestry Disability Index (ODI - AAOS/Modems version) assessed at 6 weeks, 3 months, 6 months, and annually thereafter. Results. Nonadherence to treatment assignment caused the intent-to-treat analyses to underestimate the treatment effects. In the 4-year combined as-treated analysis, those receiving surgery demonstrated significantly greater improvement in all the primary outcome measures (mean change surgery vs. nonoperative; treatment effect; 95% CI): BP (45.6 vs. 30.7; 15.0; 11.8 to 18.1), PF (44.6 vs. 29.7; 14.9;12.0 to 17.8) and ODI (−38.1 vs. −24.9; −13.2; −15.6 to −10.9). The percent working was similar between the surgery and nonoperative groups, 84.4% versus 78.4% respectively. Conclusion. In a combined as-treated analysis at 4 years, patients who underwent surgery for a lumbar disc herniation achieved greater improvement than nonoperatively treated patients in all primary and secondary outcomes except work status.

Diagnostic Accuracy of Digital versus Film Mammography: Exploratory Analysis of Selected Population Subgroups in DMIST

PURPOSE To retrospectively compare the accuracy of digital versus film mammography in population subgroups of the Digital Mammographic Imaging Screening Trial (DMIST) defined by combinations of age, menopausal status, and breast density, by using either biopsy results or follow-up information as the reference standard. MATERIALS AND METHODS DMIST included women who underwent both digital and film screening mammography. Institutional review board approval at all participating sites and informed consent from all participating women in compliance with HIPAA was obtained for DMIST and this retrospective analysis. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCs) for each modality were compared within each subgroup evaluated (age < 50 vs 50-64 vs >or= 65 years, dense vs nondense breasts at mammography, and pre- or perimenopausal vs postmenopausal status for the two younger age cohorts [10 new subgroups in toto]) while controlling for multiple comparisons (P < .002 indicated a significant difference). All DMIST cancers were evaluated with respect to mammographic detection method (digital vs film vs both vs neither), mammographic lesion type (mass, calcifications, or other), digital machine type, mammographic and pathologic size and diagnosis, existence of prior mammographic study at time of interpretation, months since prior mammographic study, and compressed breast thickness. RESULTS Thirty-three centers enrolled 49 528 women. Breast cancer status was determined for 42,760 women, the group included in this study. Pre- or perimenopausal women younger than 50 years who had dense breasts at film mammography comprised the only subgroup for which digital mammography was significantly better than film (AUCs, 0.79 vs 0.54; P = .0015). Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System-based sensitivity in this subgroup was 0.59 for digital and 0.27 for film mammography. AUCs were not significantly different in any of the other subgroups. For women aged 65 years or older with fatty breasts, the AUC showed a nonsignificant tendency toward film being better than digital mammography (AUCs, 0.88 vs 0.70; P = .0025). CONCLUSION Digital mammography performed significantly better than film for pre- and perimenopausal women younger than 50 years with dense breasts, but film tended nonsignificantly to perform better for women aged 65 years or older with fatty breasts.

Patient preferences for location of care: implications for regionalization.

BACKGROUND Regionalization of high-risk surgical procedures to selected high-volume centers has been proposed as a way to reduce operative mortality. For patients, however, travel to regional centers may be undesirable despite the expected mortality benefit. OBJECTIVE To determine the strength of patient preferences for local care. DESIGN Using a scenario of potentially resectable pancreatic cancer and a modification of the standard gamble utility assessment technique, we determined the level of additional operative mortality risk patients would accept to undergo surgery at a local rather than at a distant regional hospital in which operative mortality was assumed to be 3%. We used multiple logistic regression to identify predictors of willingness to accept additional risk. SUBJECTS One hundred consecutive patients (95% male, median age 65) awaiting elective surgery at the Veterans Affairs Medical Center in White River Jct., VT. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE Additional operative mortality risk patients would accept to keep care local. RESULTS All patients preferred local surgery if the operative mortality risk at the local hospital were the same as the regional hospital (3%). If local operative mortality risk were 6%, which is twice the regional risk, 45 of 100 patients would still prefer local surgery. If local risk were 12%, 23 of 100 patients would prefer local surgery. If local risk were 18%, 18 of 100 patients would prefer local surgery. Further increases in local risk did not result in large changes in the proportion of patients preferring local care. CONCLUSIONS Many patients prefer to undergo surgery locally even when travel to a regional center would result in lower operative mortality risk. Therefore, policy makers should consider patient preferences when assessing the expected value of regionalizing major surgery.

Surgical versus nonoperative treatment for lumbar spinal stenosis four-year results of the Spine Patient Outcomes Research Trial.

Study Design. Randomized trial and concurrent observational cohort study. Objective. To compare 4 year outcomes of surgery to nonoperative care for spinal stenosis. Summary of Background Data. Surgery for spinal stenosis has been shown to be more effective compared to nonoperative treatment over 2 years, but longer-term data have not been analyzed. Methods. Surgical candidates from 13 centers in 11 US states with at least 12 weeks of symptoms and confirmatory imaging were enrolled in a randomized cohort (RC) or observational cohort (OC). Treatment was standard decompressive laminectomy or standard nonoperative care. Primary outcomes were SF-36 bodily pain (BP) and physical function scales and the modified Oswestry Disability index assessed at 6 weeks, 3 months, 6 months, and yearly up to 4 years. Results. A total of 289 patients enrolled in the RC and 365 patients enrolled in the OC. An as-treated analysis combining the RC and OC and adjusting for potential confounders found that the clinically significant advantages for surgery previously reported were maintained through 4 years, with treatment effects (defined as mean change in surgery group minus mean change in nonoperative group) for bodily pain 12.6 (95% confidence interval [CI], 8.5–16.7); physical function 8.6 (95% CI, 4.6–12.6); and Oswestry Disability index −9.4 (95% CI, −12.6 to −6.2). Early advantages for surgical treatment for secondary measures such as bothersomeness, satisfaction with symptoms, and self-rated progress were also maintained. Conclusion. Patients with symptomatic spinal stenosis treated surgically compared to those treated nonoperatively maintain substantially greater improvement in pain and function through 4 years.

A General Regression Methodology for ROC Curve Estimation

A method for applying generalized ordinal regression models to categorical rating data to estimate and analyze receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves is presented. These models permit parsimonious adjustment of ROC curve parameters for relevant covariates through two regression equations that correspond to location and scale. Particular shapes of ROC curves are interpreted in relation to the kind of covariates included in the two regressions. The model is shown to be flexible because it is not restricted to the assumption of binormality that is commonly employed in smoothed ROC curve estimation, although the binormal model is one particular form of the more general model. The new method provides a mechanism for pinpointing the effect that interobserver variability has on the ROC curve. It also allows for the adjustment of ROC curves for temporal variation and case mix, and provides a way to assess the incremental diagnostic value of a test. The new methodology is recommended because it substantially improves the ability to assess diagnostic tests using ROC curves. Key words: ROC curves; ordinal regression; technology assessment; diagnostic tests. (Med Decis Making 8:204-215, 1988)

Direct Medical Costs Attributable to Osteoporotic Fractures

Abstract: Osteoporotic fractures are a major cause of morbidity in the elderly, the most rapidly growing segment of our population. We characterized the incremental direct medical costs following such fractures in a population-based cohort of men and women in Olmsted County, Minnesota. Cases included all County residents 50 years of age and older with an incident fracture due to minimal or moderate trauma between January 1, 1989 and January 1, 1992. For each case, a control of the same age (± 1 year) and sex who was attended in the local medical system in the same year was identified. Total incremental costs (cases – controls) in the year after fracture were estimated. Unit costs for each health service/procedure were obtained through the Mayo Cost Data Warehouse, which provides a standardized, inflation-adjusted estimate reflecting the national average cost of providing the service. Regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with incremental costs. There were 1263 case/control pairs; their average age was 73.8 years and 78% were female. Median total direct medical costs were

Impact of Hip and Vertebral Fractures on Quality-Adjusted Life Years

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