Anna Sokolova

Foresight Evaluation: Lessons from Project Management

The aim of this paper is to identify ways for improvement of the Foresight evaluation framework on the basis of analysis and systematisation of accumulated experience in the field of project management. The paper is based on a detailed literature review related to an evaluation of Foresight and traditional projects. The comparison of evaluation approaches allows to provide recommendations for Foresight evaluation framework improvement. The elements which can enrich Foresight evaluation process are the following: the development of an evaluation model; the extensive use of quantitative methods; the elaboration of evaluation scales; the inclusion of economic indicators into evaluation; and the provision of more openness and transparency for evaluation results. Given the importance of Foresight evaluation procedures and the lack of a commonly applied methodological approach, the value of this paper consists in identifying a Foresight evaluation framework and enriching it with elements of project management.

A methodology for technology trend monitoring: the case of semantic technologies

This paper introduces a systematic technology trend monitoring (TTM) methodology based on an analysis of bibliometric data. Among the key premises for developing a methodology are: (1) the increasing number of data sources addressing different phases of the STI development, and thus requiring a more holistic and integrated analysis; (2) the need for more customized clustering approaches particularly for the purpose of identifying trends; and (3) augmenting the policy impact of trends through gathering future-oriented intelligence on emerging developments and potential disruptive changes. Thus, the TTM methodology developed combines and jointly analyzes different datasets to gain intelligence to cover different phases of the technological evolution starting from the ‘emergence’ of a technology towards ‘supporting’ and ‘solution’ applications and more ‘practical’ business and market-oriented uses. Furthermore, the study presents a new algorithm for data clustering in order to overcome the weaknesses of readily available clusterization tools for the purpose of identifying technology trends. The present study places the TTM activities into a wider policy context to make use of the outcomes for the purpose of Science, Technology and Innovation policy formulation, and R&D strategy making processes. The methodology developed is demonstrated in the domain of “semantic technologies”.

Integrated Framework for Evaluation of National Foresight Studies

With the growing importance of Foresight in strategic decision-making, there is parallel growth in interest in ways in which we might evaluate Foresight activities and outputs, and thus learn how to improve their effectiveness. But general principles for such evaluation have not yet been formulated. The purpose of this chapter is to identify the basic criteria and methods used in evaluating national Foresight exercises. Reviewing a range of evaluation efforts, it presents some interesting results for specific tasks, themes examined, methods and findings. A key motivation for these evaluations was to provide feedback to national Foresight organizations and identify areas for further development. Evaluation is used to guide Foresight and to learn lessons that can inform future projects (for example, lessons concerning simplifying implementation, involving business and social organizations, recognizing the objectives of participants and the need for better compliance with the methodology). We suggest a general methodology for assessing national Foresight programmes, together with a framework that can be used to improve the comparability of results of Foresight evaluation initiatives in different countries, and even to promote the standardization and upgrading of evaluation procedures.

Selection of Information Sources for Identifying Technology Trends: A Comparative Analysis

Technology foresight is mainly conducted by applying a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods. An evidence-based approach implies covering a wide range of information sources, as well as the active application of quantitative methods for processing. Therefore, it is very important to select the right sources of data, extract core information from them, and interpret the results correctly. In theoretical works devoted to identifying technology trends, the most widely used information sources are scientific publications and patents. There are also authors who propose relying on additional sources of data (media, conferences, business-related resources, and others). However, the issue of applicability and comparison of core and extra sources of information for monitoring technology trends has not received sufficient coverage in the literature. In connection with this, the purpose of this paper is to conduct a comparative analysis of the results of technology monitoring by using various information sources (scientific publications, patents, media, foresight-projects, conferences, international projects, dissertations, and presentations). The proposed approach is tested on the area of green energy and the results are described and analyzed. Possible factors that can affect the results of data processing are considered and discussed in order to more efficiently use the comparative analysis of quantitative and qualitative procedures for identifying, correcting, and updating global technology trends on a regular basis.

The Identification of Weak Signals and Wild Cards in Foresight Methodology: Stages and Methods

This research explores the key stages and methods for the identification of weak signals (WS) and wild cards (WC) in foresight methodology. Theoretical approaches and practical projects in this field were studied, key characteristics and features of these concepts were identified. A review of potential data sources for the monitoring of WS and WC were also provided. The key groups of methods were formed including scanning and monitoring; data analysis; modelling, clustering, interpretation; expert procedures. The stages for identification of WS are proposed. A case study devoted to WS for the analysis of technology development of bioprinting is considered.

The Integrated Approach for Foresight Evaluation: The Russian Case

As the impact of strategic decision-making at the corporate, sectoral and national levels increases, there are growing demands for high quality and solid Foresight outputs. In this regard, a timely detection and elimination of problems in Foresight projects is of great importance. A thorough evaluation of criteria and methods used in Foresight analysis would permit the improved effectiveness of Foresight activities. The results could be set against the aims to decide on the feasibility of projects and identify ways to improve them. Despite great interest in Foresight evaluation demonstrated by stakeholders at various levels, the general principles for conducting it have not yet been formulated, which hinders its development and the diffusion of successful expertise. The purpose of this paper is to develop an integrated approach for the evaluation of Foresight projects, including their classification, basic criteria to evaluate project realisation, results and impact and a SWOT analysis. The proposed methodology was tested on Russian National Foresight 2030 and the results are described and analysed. Further ways of developing this approach are suggested

The Eurasian Economic Union and the Silk Road Economic Belt: Opportunities for Russia

This article considers the opportunities for Russia presented by the launch of China’s Silk Road Economic Belt initiative.This initiative is a comprehensive project for the rapid development of Central Asian countries, and not limited only to transportand logistics to guarantee the supply of Chinese goods to Europe. It is also China’s response to economic and political processes both within the country and in the Asia-Pacific region: the economic slow down and transformation of its social and economic model, diverging income levels, the growing presence of the United States in Asia, and the new divisions of labour within the region. The Silk Road initiative is based on China’s intention to create strong regional value chains, to outsource labour-intensive and environmentally harmful production, to foster the development of north west China including securing political stability in the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region, and to guarantee the use of Chinese construction firms’ capacity. Goods transit is a secondary priority and justified not by commercial benefits from using land routes, but by the need to diversify export risks, arising due to the deteriorating military and political situation in the South China Sea. The 2015 Joint Statement on Cooperation on the Construction of Joint Eurasian Economic Union and the Silk Road Economic Belt projects resolves the issue of all egedly competitive goals of these complementary projects. The Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) provides an institutional base for cooperation while the Silk Road initiative provide investments for their development. Russia may benefit from participating in the Silk Road initiative. First, it would help integrate its transportation system into the region’s logistics network and provide additional opportunities for transit and associated logistical services as well as access to growing regional markets. Second, the Silk Road initiative offers opportunities to strengthen industrial cooperation among neighbouring countries to develop new economic clusters. Third, the EEU and the Silk Road may become the basis for more ambitious cooperation in greater Eurasia, which may transform into a new centre of economic development at the global level.

Green Energy Prospects: Trends and Challenges

The transition of energy systems moving from non-renewable fossil-nuclear to renewable sources is a key challenge of climate mitigation and sustainable development. Green energy technologies can contribute to solutions of global problems such as climate change, growth of energy consumption, depletion of natural resources, negative environmental impacts, and energy security. In this article the prospective directions of technology development in green energy are studied and analyzed using a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods. Qualitative research involves participation of key experts in the field of green energy, while quantitative analysis includes collecting and processing data from different information sources (scientific publications, patents, news, Foresight projects, conferences, projects of international organizations, dissertations, and presentations) with a help of Vantage Point software. In addition, key challenges for green energy as well as its relationships with other technological and non-technological areas are identified and briefly described on the basis of expert and analytical results.

Are inflation expectations in Russia forward–looking?

The aim of this research is to identify the process that guides the evolution of inflation expectations in Russia. The significance of this theoretical issue is stipulated by the fact that the characteristics of this process are the key determinants of both inflation dynamics and the effectiveness of disinflation measures introduced by the Central Bank. This paper studies the degree to which inflation expectations appear forward-looking and backward-looking. We estimate the Hybrid Phillips curve that includes proxies for both backward- and forward-looking components of inflation expectations. Applying generalised method of moments we asses, which of the two components play a predominant role in determining Russian inflation. The estimates are based on the monthly macroeconomic statistics for the period 1999-2013. Our analysis suggests that to a large extent inflation expectations in Russia remain backward-looking. Hence, it is recommended to take action to enhance agents confidence in the Central Banks policy before switching to aggressive inflation targeting.

The Best Practices of Evaluating S&T Foresight: Basic Elements and Key Criteria

Ekaterina Makarova - Research Intern, Research Laboratory for Science and Technology Studies. E-mail: kmakarova@hse.ruAnna Sokolova - Senior Research Fellow, Research Laboratory for Science and Technology Studies. Е-mail: avsokolova@hse.ruInstitute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University Higher School of EconomicsAddress: National Research University Higher School of Economics, 20, Myasnitskaya str., Moscow, 101000As the impact of strategic decision-making at the corporate, sectoral and national levels increase, there are growing demands for high quality and solid Foresight outputs. In this regard, a timely detection and elimination of problems in Foresight projects is of great importance. A thorough evaluation of criteria and methods used in Foresight analysis would permit the improved effectiveness of Foresight activities. The results could be set against the aims to decide on the feasibility of projects and identify ways to improve them. Despite great interest in Foresight evaluation demonstrated by stakeholders at various levels, the general principles for conducting it have not yet been formulated, which hinders its development and the diffusion of successful expertise.The purpose of this paper is to identify the basic elements-criteria and methods-used in evaluating national Foresight. It presents the most interesting results for specific tasks, the themes examined, the methods and the findings, in general. In addition, the study allowed some inference about theory and practice of project management. The study reveals that a key motivation for evaluation of Foresight projects is to provide feedback to national Foresight organizations and identify areas for further development. Evaluation is used to guide Foresight (in varying degrees) and provide lessons learned for future projects (for example, simplifying implementation, involving business and social organizations, recognizing the need for better compliance with the methodology and objectives of the study participants).The paper serves to develop a general methodology for assessing national Foresight programmes. A further agenda is to develop a comprehensive analysis of Foresight, ensure comparability of results of Foresight evaluation initiatives in different countries, promote standardization of evaluation procedures.